Kelly frey wtae salary

The office RP

2023.06.04 17:55 LakeMore8453 The office RP

DUNDER MIFFLIN SCRANTON (the office RP) YOU WILL BE PAYED!
The Office dunder Mifflin Scranton RP!
Hello all! We have some roles open for the office roleplay! The office is dunder Mifflin Scranton as seen in the show, it may be a paper company but it is so much more there is lots of goofing off, drama, and party’s! although sometimes occasionally they Do work! Almost everyone will be provided cars for the RP and the Dunder Mifflin Scranton office is huge! It costed 1.6 million there is Dunder mifflin, Vance refrigeration, the Micheal Scott paper company, the warehouse, and cafe disco. We have many open roles! Join the discord for more info!
This rp is gonna be just like the office US tv show every role play will have a theme for us to go off of!
And you will be paid Roles and salaries below:
Main cast: Salary is 7.5k per RP
These include: Michael Scott (Me) Pam, Jim, Dwight, and Ryan.
Supporting cast: 5k per RP
these include: Stanley Hudson,Phyllis Vance,Oscar Martinez,Angela Martin,Kevin Malone,Kelly Kapoor, Toby Flederson,Creed Bratton, Meredith Palmer.
Recurring characters: 2.5k per RP include, Roy Anderson, Darrel Philbon,Hank Doyle (the security guard), Jan Levinson, and David Wallace.
Guest stars: include clients who will be paid 1k per episode featured in! [ MUST HAVE DISCORD ]
If interested comment down below!
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2023.06.04 00:40 RyanRoberts87 Dual Income No Kids Can I Retire at 55?

Comments, thoughts, criticism, and feedback appreciated.
Background
Me M(35)
Old Salary Progression Info Only:
I previously did 10% 401k traditional with 8% company contribution until new job at new company in April 2022.
• 2011-2015 $45,000 Bonus Target $4,500
• 2015-2016 $54,000 Bonus Target $5,400
• 2016-Oct 2016: $60,000 Bonus Target $6,000
• Oct 2016-Oct 2018 $66,000 Bonus Target $3,300
• Oct 2018-Sept 2021: $73,150 Bonus Target $3,657
• Sept 2021-April 2022: $90,000 Bonus Target $10,800
• April 2022-March 2023: $113,000 Bonus Target $13,560
I will probably see 2-3% increases moving forward for merit raises from company which I will plow in savings/investments.
Wife F (34)
She should see $3k-$4k+ raises each year due to being on union contract. Currently would max out at about $95K. Did not start her own 403B until recently. She is vested at pension with 10+ years with a much lower payout. 30+ years gets healthcare covered at 80% and higher yearly payout.
Retirement (Total $191,067)
Expected Healthcare costs: 80% Coverage, have to pay 20% (Self and Spouse for 2023 shows as $333/mth without Medicare and $48.89/mth with Medicare)
Expected Pension: $33,400/YR (Using 2023 salary numbers, 3% annual increase each October. 100% survivor benefit.)
Other Assets (Total $538,000)
Liabilities (Expected Total $173,000)
Avg Monthly Bills/Expenses (Total $6,608)
Avg Monthly Savings After Bills and Expenses (Total $1,893)
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2023.06.02 15:00 JasonOrion Predict the 2023 offseason

The draft is less than 3 weeks away, and as the draft approaches, we'll get an increasingly clearer idea of what will happen this offseason. So, while we still don't know what will happen try to predict the 2023 offseason. For reference, here's what we did last offseason according to Basketball Reference:
Trades:
  1. Traded Jerami Grant, pick #46 to Portland for Milwaukee's 2025 1st, pick #36, 2025 2nd, 2026 2nd
  2. Traded Milwaukee's 2025 1st to New York for the draft rights to Jalen Duren, Kemba Walker
  3. Traded Nikola Radičević's draft rights, Detroit's 2025 2nd to New York for cash, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, Detroit's 2023 2nd, 2026 2nd
  4. Traded cash, Saben Lee, Kelly Olynyk to Utah for Bojan Bogdanovic
Draft: #5: Jaden Ivey, #13: Jalen Duren, #36: Gabriele Procida
Free Agency: Signed Kevin Knox and Rodney McGruder
This offseason we will have $27,979,371 in cap space if we draft at #5 and #31. In terms of draft capital, we have pick #5 and #31 and 2nds from other teams but we can't trade any future 1sts due to New York having our protected 1st.
Here's my prediction:
Trades:
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I predict we make 1 trade, a 3-team trade with New York and Dallas. For New York, they'll turn Evan Fournier into Bojan, and 3 2nds for future trades. Going from Evan Fournier to Bojan would be great for them, they lost to the Eastern Conference champions in 6 games in the second round, and with Bojan added to their roster they'd have a better shot at making the conference finals next year. Washington's 2024 2nd is going to be good as Washington is likely to be worse next year than they were this year (for reference, their 2nd this year is pick #37.)
For Dallas, they'd get a young center that still has some potential, Burks, their 2024 1st, and pick #31. Their own 1st next year could be used in future trades. Pick #31 is a good spot to select a player like James Nnaji who could be a solid selection for a team that needs bigs.
We'd be giving up Bojan, Burks, Wiseman, pick #31, and 3 future 2nds for #10 and our own protected 1st back. #10 could be used to select a long-term piece, which will fit the long-term focus the front office has considering the length of Monty's contract. We have to get our protected 1st back if we want to ever trade future 1sts, which will happen if we ever want to trade for a star. This would make us worse next year but would help us in the long term. Fournier's contract is only 1 year since year 2 is a team option, and Bertans's contract is only $5 million next year.
Draft: #5 Ausur Thompson, #10 Leonard Miller
Ausur Thompson would be great for the team defensively, and he's a good playmaker too which will be important in Monty's offensive scheme. The biggest problem with Ausur is his 3pt shooting, but he's improved a lot over the course of the past year and he'll get a lot more open shots with Cade and Ivey setting him up than he did in OTE.
Leonard Miller has great size for somebody who is currently playing SF, he measured in at 6' 9.25'' without shoes at the combine (6th tallest height at the draft combine). He's a great rebounder, he averaged 11 rebounds per game this season including 3.3 offensive rebounds per game. He's not a great shooter but has improved this season. He can become a much better player with an NBA training staff helping him put on weight as he only measured in at 212.8 pounds at the combine.
Free Agency:
The trade mentioned before, combined with selecting at #5 and #10 would leave us $32,368,568 in cap space. With that money, I predict we'd sign Jerami Grant to a 4 year, $120 million deal. This is an overpay, but not much of one considering Portland already offered him a 4 year, $112 million extension. Cade, Ivey, and Duren are all under rookie deals for a couple more seasons so our roster will be cheap so it's not that big of a deal if we pay Jerami $2 million more per season than another team would. The setup of the contract would make the deal better over time as it'll be a flat contract and the salary cap increases each season.
It looks like Portland is looking to trade for Pascal Siakam so Jerami may be looking for a new team, and with the Monty hire, Ivey and Duren on the roster, and year 3 Cade Cunningham we are a much more attractive destination then we were when Jerami was traded 1 year ago. Jerami would be a great 3rd option on our team, as he's played as a 3rd option very well in Portland scoring 20.5 points per game, shooting 40.1% from 3 on 5.7 attempts per game, and while being a good defender.
For our own free agents, I predict we re-sign Hamidou and Cory Joesph to league-minimum contracts.
And, our last signing will technically be a trade as we'd have to send a 2nd to the Kings for his draft rights. That player is 2023 Euroleague MVP Sasha Vezenkov. He's a 6'9" PF who's a good shooter, he shot 39.8% from 3 on 5.2 attempts per game in the Euroleague and he's a good rebounder and decent defender too. He averaged 26.8 points per game during EuroBasket 2022, which is more than Luka averaged. He also led EuroBasket 2022 with 12.2 rebounds per game. He'll only be 28 to start next season, so if he works out he could be a solid medium-term player for us.
The Lineup:
Cade Ivey Ausar Grant Duren
Hampton Fournier Leonard Vezenkov Stew
Cade, Ivey, Ausar, and to a lesser extent Duren are all solid to good playmakers, and Grant has the reputation of being a good scorer so our pass-heavy offense should work well. As I mentioned before, Grant will be the 3rd option, with Ivey as the 2nd option, and Cade as the 1st option. Defensively, an Ausar, Grant, and Duren frontcourt would be quite good, too. Cade, Ivey, and Grant all have the potential to average 20 points per game, but it's the bench that's the problem offensively.
I think we'll make RJ Hampton the backup PG over Killian because RJ is a much better shooter than Killian and we'd need shooting on the bench. Fournier has had a bad couple of years, but he could be a decent bench guy since there isn't the Boston/New York media to criticize every missed shot and error he makes so he should be under much less pressure. We would still have a lot of holes on our roster and a lot of moves to make, but we won't go from worst in the league to championship contenders over 1 offseason.
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2023.05.31 22:16 El_Jose_22 My (unbiased) All-Star Picks

My (unbiased) All-Star Picks submitted by El_Jose_22 to NLBest [link] [comments]

2023.05.24 11:31 FunShort2486 Best AI team ever

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2023.05.24 00:18 Chico237 #NIOCORP~RECENT ARTICLES ON CRITICAL MINERALS IN THE NEWS~

#NIOCORP~RECENT ARTICLES ON CRITICAL MINERALS IN THE NEWS~

MAY 23, 2022 (One Year Ago Today}~Congress and Pentagon seek to shore up strategic mineral stockpile dominated by China~ By Bryant Harris

Congress and Pentagon seek to shore up strategic mineral stockpile dominated by China (defensenews.com)
Sikorsky employees building CH-53K aircraft at the Stratford, Conn., production line utilize 3-D work instructions and new titanium machining centers with multi-floor ergonomic platforms. (Sikorsky photo)
WASHINGTON — Congress has repeatedly authorized multimillion-dollar sell-offs of the U.S. strategic minerals stockpile over the past several decades, but Washington’s increased anxiety over Chinese domination of resources critical to the defense industrial base has prompted lawmakers to reverse course and shore up the reserve.
The House Armed Services Committee will seek to bolster the National Defense Stockpile of rare earth minerals in the fiscal 2023 defense authorization bill, Defense News has learned. And earlier this week, the Defense Department submitted its own legislative proposal to Congress asking the committee to authorize $253.5 million in that legislation to procure additional minerals for the stockpile.
The stockpile includes valuable minerals essential to defense supply chains, such as titanium**,** tungsten and cobalt.
Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., who sits on the armed services committee, is also trying to convince the powerful defense appropriations subcommittee to provide additional funding for the National Defense Stockpile. The stockpile is managed by the Defense Logistics Agency and funded by the Treasury Department.
“Right now, the stockpile is reaching insolvency, so we can’t even operate to simply maintain salaries and maintain the stockpile,” Moulton told Defense News. “The second broad issue is that the stockpile has been reduced dramatically in size over the past several years [as] the stockpile’s been sold off.”
The stockpile was valued at nearly $42 billion in today’s dollars at its peak during the beginning of the Cold War in 1952. That value has plummeted to $888 million as of last year following decades of congressionally authorized sell-offs to private sector customers. Lawmakers anticipate the stockpile will become insolvent by FY25.
“A lot of what happened is Congress just getting greedy and finding politically convenient ways to fund programs that they weren’t willing to raise revenue for,” said Moulton.
These sell-offs have included 3,000 short tons of titanium, used in building military airframes, and 76 million pounds of tungsten ores and concentrates, used in military turbine engines and armor-piercing ammunition. They have also included more than 2 million pounds of tantalum, used in electronics, as well as 26 million pounds of cobalt and 62,881 short tons of aluminum.
“It was just ignorance on our part that we allowed that to happen,” Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., told Defense News. “I don’t see any other reason for it.”
Burchett was one of seven Republicans to sign onto Moulton’s letter to the defense appropriations subcommittee last month asking appropriators to provide an additional $264 million in funding for the stockpile for FY23.
“While these drawdowns were appropriate when the Department of Defense mainly focused on counterterrorism, the current stockpile is inadequate to meet the requirements of great power competition,” the lawmakers wrote. “The [National Defense Stockpile] is no longer capable of covering the Department of Defense’s needs for the vast majority of identified materials in the event of a supply chain disruption.”
Furthermore, China monopolizes much of the global rare earth mineral market, raising the prospect Beijing could cut off access to critical minerals in the event of a conflict with the United States.
“China in particular does a remarkably good job of hoarding these materials,” said Moulton. “China clearly has a comprehensive global strategy to corner the market on these materials and we’re behind and we’re playing catch-up.”

China has the world’s largest trove of titanium and exports a significant quantity of tungsten to the United States. The nation also dominates the mining and mineral trade in developing countries that export large quantities of critical minerals. For instance, it has a majority ownership of 70% of the cobalt mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s largest supplier of the metal.

“Communist China is definitely not a friend of this country and they will continue to bleed us with this,” said Burchett. “They go into these countries and offer to subsidize something for them at a ridiculously low price.”

Sens. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., and Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., both of whom sit on the armed services committee, have also introduced legislation to create a separate reserve of strategic rare earth minerals while restricting the use of Chinese rare earth minerals in advanced defense technology.
Kelly told Defense News the additional rare earth mineral reserve would be akin to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
“If we do wind up in a conflict with a country which is where we’re getting our lithium or cobalt, for instance, or other rare earths, we could go to the strategic reserve,” Kelly told Defense News.
Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm praised the idea during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Thursday while thanking Congress for including funding for rare earth minerals as part of the $40 billion Ukraine aid package the Senate passed the same day.
Congress allocated $600 million in funding in that legislation for President Joe Biden to invoke the Defense Production Act to expand access to critical minerals and expedite missile production.
Last year, Biden signed an executive order to shore up U.S. supply chains that included a directive for the Defense Department to submit a report identifying risks in the critical mineral supply chain. That built upon a 2020 executive order from former president Donald Trump authorizing grants and loan guarantees in the procurement of critical minerals.

USGS rejects push to make copper a ‘critical’ mineral By Hannah Northey 05/23/2023 04:25 PM EDT

USGS rejects push to make copper a 'critical' mineral - E&E News (eenews.net)
The U.S. Geological Survey is rebuffing bipartisan calls from lawmakers to add copper to its list of critical minerals, a classification that’s catapulted in importance as the nation races to compete with China on development of renewable energy technology and boost electric vehicle adoption.
David Applegate, who directs the USGS, told Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) in an April 13 letter and Republican Rep. Bob Latta of Ohio on May 1 that vulnerabilities in the nation’s copper supplies are reduced by domestic resources, trade deals and other supplies.
“While copper is clearly an essential mineral commodity, its supply chain vulnerabilities are mitigated by domestic capacity, trade with reliable partners, and significant secondary capacity,” Applegate wrote in the letters. “As a result, the USGS does not believe that the available information on copper supply and demand justifies an out-of-cycle addition to the list at this time.”
Copper rods used to machine parts are stacked on a shelf at Makerite Manufacturing in Roscoe, Ill., in 2019. Getty Images
Sinema did not immediately respond when asked for comment, but Craig Wheeler, a spokesperson for Latta, said there’s still bipartisan, bicameral support for designating copper as critical and significant data that highlights the benefits for the U.S.
“The congressman continues to believe that it’s within the secretary’s power to acknowledge this reality and designate copper as a critical mineral,” said Wheeler.
The congressional push over the status of copper highlights how much is at stake in the rush to source up and incentivize development of supply chains to feed EV production and clean energy technology. Should copper be labeled “critical,” projects aimed at mining and processing the material could potentially be prioritized by the federal government and benefit from laws like the landmark Inflation Reduction Act and its lucrative tax credits for electric vehicles.
Under federal law, a critical mineral is a non-fuel mineral or mineral material essential to the economic or national security of the U.S. but has a supply chain vulnerable to disruption.
The USGS, Applegate said, will continue to monitor copper supply and consumption data ahead of releasing the next list. The last list including 50 minerals was unveiled in February 2022, and the next is expected in 2025.
Applegate was responding to letters that a host of lawmakers sent to Interior Secretary Deb Haaland earlier this year, urging the Biden administration to reconsider including copper on the critical mineral list and warning that the Russian invasion of Ukraine and new economic data show significant supply risks.
Sinema, along with Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Raphael Warnock of Georgia, as well as Republican Sens. Mike Braun of Indiana and Mitt Romney of Utah, concluded in their letter that designating copper as critical is a “necessity.”
The senators referenced both a report from S&P Global and an analysis from the Copper Development Association Inc., a copper industry trade group, which found global copper demand for EVs, batteries, renewables, power lines and transformers will double by 2035 and strain existing supplies.
The association in a release criticized the USGS’ decision and said data the group provided shows a higher supply risk score exists for copper that should land it on the critical mineral list.
“Despite clear data showing that copper’s supply risk score is now above the threshold for automatic inclusion on the 2022 Critical Minerals list, USGS sent well-crafted letters to a bipartisan group of congressmen and senators filled with misleading arguments that were not part of its own official 2022 methodology, or consistent with the spirit or letter of the law, to justify a decision to forego immediately adding copper to the list,” Andrew Kireta, the group’s president and CEO, said in a statement.
Kireta said the decision was made even though Haaland has the authority to add copper to the list without waiting for the next update in three years.
But Applegate in his response laid out the USGS’ methodology and cited the latest federal data showing that while net reliance on copper imports increased from 2018 to 2021, data from this year shows reliance actually decreased over the past year from 44 percent in 2021 to 41 percent in 2022.
“Imports of refined copper decreased in 2022 even as domestic copper consumption increased,” Applegate wrote.
Those points mirror an argument that Terry Rambler, chair of the San Carlos Apache Tribe, along with Earthworks, Patagonia and the Arizona Mining Reform Coalition, made in a letter to Haaland earlier this year.
The tribe and environmental groups warned against what they said were attempts to influence a well-established regulatory process around how the USGS determines which minerals are critical.
Jason Burton, a spokesperson for the USGS, said the agency is monitoring critical mineral conditions as part of the normal list cycle mandated in the Energy Act of 2020, and that includes identifying a list of minerals deemed “critical” based on criteria laid out in the law, gathering public feedback, and publishing and updating the list every three years. Prior to issuing a list in 2022, Burton said the agency reviewed more than 1,000 comments from the public, stakeholders, and local and state officials.
Burton also said any revisions to the list will be the result of careful analysis of the most recent, complete sets of data, followed by peer review of the resulting conclusions, and will be issued through a public review and comment process in the Federal Register.

MAY 23, 2023~A New Era: How Critical Minerals are Driving the Global Energy Transition~BY SPROTT

Sprott May 2023 White Paper A New Era How Critical Minerals are Driving the Global Energy Transition (sprottetfs.com)
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May 23, 2023 - 11:55 am No end in sight: US and EU continue negotiations on clean car deal

No end in sight: US and EU continue negotiations on clean car deal - electrive.com
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Negotiations between the US and the EU on the planned agreement on the critical minerals for EVs are taking longer than expected. It would give European carmakers access to tax credits in the US.
According to Politico, negotiations are likely to continue well into the summer. While the US insists on a binding pact, the EU is pushing for a more flexible agreement that does not require the time-consuming approval of its 27 member states. Behind closed doors, the EU may even be discussing whether the deal is still worthwhile.
The two sides are working on an agreement because of a dispute over US subsidies for green technologies, which were introduced at the turn of the year with the US Inflation Reduction Act. The EU has since feared that the provisions would lead to an exodus of green technology companies to the US and said several times that it considers the law discriminatory. Since the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act, several companies have considered prioritising the US over Europe when investing in battery factories, for example.
In mid-March, both sides declared they were working on an agreement on critical minerals for electric car batteries. The US government then submitted a confidential concept paper for a transatlantic critical minerals partnership to the EU Commission. Negotiations continue behind closed doors.
According to Politico, the differences of opinion between US and EU officials are not about the content but about the legal structure of the agreement. One of the major sticking points seems to be that “the way the Inflation Reduction Act is written creates a semantic imperative for Brussels and Washington to call any minerals deal a ‘free trade agreement’, even though such pacts have traditionally required the approval of the US Congress and, in the European Union, the bloc’s member countries as well as the European Parliament”.
According to Politico, the EU is keen to avoid lengthy ratification processes and is arguing for a legally different form, such as a “non-binding instrument” or an “executive agreement”. The US wants “binding trade commitments” so that the pact can be considered a free trade agreement under the terms of the Inflation Reduction Act. However, the Biden administration is under pressure for bypassing US Congress in a similar deal it made with Japan in March. This fast-track approach could be a possibility for a US-EU agreement but is likely to pose domestic legitimacy problems for President Joe Biden.
Politico writes that negotiations could drag on into the summer, and European carmakers will be at a disadvantage in the US in the meantime. However, there are voices on the EU side questioning whether an agreement is worthwhile. After all, the political discussions about the effects of the US Inflation Reduction Act have become quieter in recent months. In the meantime, the EU has taken countermeasures with relaxed state aid rules.
In March, a third of EVs imported by the US in 2022 came from Germany. If US customers only receive tax benefits from domestic manufacturers, sales there would plummet. To qualify for tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, EVs must be assembled in North America (with a loophole for foreign manufacturers via leasing companies), and the amount of the subsidy also depends on the origin of the battery or battery materials. For electric cars to be eligible, 40 per cent of the critical minerals in the battery used must come from the US or a country with which the US has a free trade agreement.

MAY 21, 2023~The U.S. Needs Minerals for Electric Cars. Everyone Else Wants Them Too.~ By Ana Swanson

The U.S. Needs Minerals for Electric Cars. Everyone Else Wants Them Too. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
The United States is entering an array of agreements to secure the critical minerals necessary for the energy transition, but it’s not clear which of the arrangements can succeed.
The Chaerhan Salt Lake in Golmud, China, where brine is processed to extract lithium and other minerals.Credit...Qilai Shen for The New York Times
For decades, a group of the world’s biggest oil producers has held huge sway over the American economy and the popularity of U.S. presidents through its control of the global oil supply, with decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries determining what U.S. consumers pay at the pump.
As the world shifts to cleaner sources of energy, control over the materials needed to power that transition is still up for grabs.
China currently dominates global processing of the critical minerals that are now in high demand to make batteries for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage. In an attempt to gain more power over that supply chain, U.S. officials have begun negotiating a series of agreements with other countries to expand America’s access to important minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite.
But it remains unclear which of these partnerships will succeed, or if they will be able to generate anything close to the supply of minerals the United States is projected to need for a wide array of products, including electric cars and batteries for storing solar power.
Leaders of Japan, Europe and other advanced nations, who are meeting in Hiroshima, agree that the world’s reliance on China for more than 80 percent of processing of minerals leaves their nations vulnerable to political pressure from Beijing, which has a history of weaponizing supply chains in times of conflict.
On Saturday, the leaders of the Group of 7 countries reaffirmed the need to manage the risks caused by vulnerable mineral supply chains and build more resilient sources. The United States and Australia announced a partnership to share information and coordinate standards and investment to create more responsible and sustainable supply chains.
“This is a huge step, from our perspective — a huge step forward in our fight against the climate crisis,” President Biden said Saturday as he signed the agreement with Australia.
But figuring out how to access all of the minerals the United States will need will still be a challenge. Many mineral-rich nations have poor environmental and labor standards. And although speeches at the G7 emphasized alliances and partnerships, rich countries are still essentially competing for scarce resources.
Japan has signed a critical minerals deal with the United States, and Europe is in the midst of negotiating one. But like the United States, those regions have substantially greater demand for critical minerals to feed their own factories than supply to spare.
Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the United States, said in an interview that the allied countries had an important partnership in the industry, but that they were also, to some extent, commercial competitors. “It is a partnership, but it’s a partnership with certain levels of tension,” she said.
“It’s a complicated economic geopolitical moment,” Ms. Hillman added. “And we are all committed to getting to the same place and we’re going to work together to do it, but we’re going to work together to do it in a way that’s also good for our businesses.”
“We have to create a market for the products that are produced and created in a way that is consistent with our values,” she said.
​
Leaders of the G7 nations, who are gathering in Japan this week, agree that the world’s reliance on China for more than 80 percent of processing of minerals leaves their nations vulnerable to political pressure from Beijing.Credit...Kenny Holston/The New York Times
The State Department has been pushing forward with a “minerals security partnership,” with 13 governments trying to promote public and private investment in their critical mineral supply chains. And European officials have been advocating a “buyers’ club” for critical minerals with the G7 countries, which could establish certain common labor and environmental standards for suppliers.
Indonesia, which is the world’s biggest nickel producer, has floated the idea of joining with other resource-rich countries to make an OPEC-style producers cartel, an arrangement that would try to shift the power to mineral suppliers.
Indonesia has also approached the United States in recent months seeking a deal similar to that of Japan and the European Union. Biden administration officials are weighing whether to give Indonesia some kind of preferential access, either through an independent deal or as part of a trade framework the United States is negotiating in the Indo-Pacific.
But some U.S. officials have warned that Indonesia’s lagging environmental and labor standards could allow materials into the United States that undercut the country’s nascent mines, as well as its values. Such a deal is also likely to trigger stiff opposition in Congress, where some lawmakers criticized the Biden administration’s deal with Japan.
Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, hinted at these trade-offs in a speech last month, saying that carrying out negotiations with critical mineral-producing states would be necessary, but would raise “hard questions” about labor practices in those countries and America’s broader environmental goals.
Whether America’s new agreements would take the shape of a critical minerals club, a fuller negotiation or something else was unclear, Mr. Sullivan said: “We are now in the thick of trying to figure that out.”
Cullen Hendrix, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the Biden administration’s strategy to build more secure international supply chains for minerals outside of China had so far been “a bit incoherent and not necessarily sufficient to achieve that goal.”
The demand for minerals in the United States has been spurred in large part by President Biden’s climate law, which provided tax incentives for investments in the electric vehicle supply chain, particularly in the final assembly of batteries. But Mr. Hendrix said the law appeared to be having more limited success in rapidly increasing the number of domestic mines that would supply those new factories.
“The United States is not going to be able to go this alone,” he said.
Biden officials agree that obtaining a secure supply of the minerals needed to power electric vehicle batteries is one of their most pressing challenges. U.S. officials say that the global supply of lithium alone needs to increase by 42 times by 2050 to meet the rising demand for electric vehicles. Projections by the International Energy Agency suggest that global demand for lithium will grow by 42 times by 2040.
Ford’s electric pickup truck on the production line of the company’s plant in Dearborn, Mich.Credit...Brittany Greeson for The New York Times
While innovations in batteries could reduce the need for certain minerals, for now, the world is facing dramatic long-term shortages by any estimate. And many officials say Europe’s reliance on Russian energy following the invasion of Ukraine has helped to illustrate the danger of foreign dependencies.
The global demand for these materials is triggering a wave of resource nationalism that could intensify. Outside of the United States, the European Union, Canada and other governments have also introduced subsidy programs to better compete for new mines and battery factories.
Indonesia has progressively stepped up restrictions on exporting raw nickel ore, requiring it to first be processed in the country. Chile, a major producer of lithium, has proposed nationalizing its lithium industry to better control how the resources are developed and deployed, as have Bolivia and Mexico.
And Chinese companies are still investing heavily in acquiring mines and refinery capacity globally.
For now, the Biden administration has appeared wary of cutting deals with countries with more mixed labor and environmental records. Officials are exploring changes needed to develop U.S. capacity, like faster permitting processes for mines, as well as closer partnerships with mineral-rich allies, like Canada, Australia and Chile.
On Saturday, the White House said it planned to ask Congress to add Australia to a list of countries where the Pentagon can fund critical mineral projects, criteria that currently only applies to Canada.
Todd Malan, the chief external affairs officer at Talon Metals, which has proposed a nickel mine in Minnesota to supply Tesla’s North American production, said that adding a top ally like Australia, which has high standards of production regarding environment, labor rights and Indigenous participation, to that list was a “smart move.”
But Mr. Malan said that expanding the list of countries that would be eligible for benefits under the administration’s new climate law beyond countries with similar labor and environmental standards could undermine efforts to develop a stronger supply chain in the United States.
“If you start opening the door to Indonesia and the Philippines or elsewhere where you don’t have the common standards, we would view that as outside the spirit of what Congress was trying to do in incentivizing a domestic and friends supply chain for batteries,” he said.
However, some U.S. officials argue that the supply of critical minerals in wealthy countries with high labor and environmental standards will be insufficient to meet demand, and that failing to strike new agreements with resource-rich countries in Africa and Asia could leave the United States highly vulnerable.
While the Biden administration is looking to streamline the permitting process in the United States for new mines, getting approval for such projects can still take years, if not decades. Auto companies, which are major U.S. employers, have also been warning of projected shortfalls in battery materials and arguing for arrangements that would give them more flexibility and lower prices.
The G7 nations, together with the countries with which the United States has free trade agreements, produce 30 percent of the world’s lithium chemicals and about 20 percent of its refined cobalt and nickel, but only 1 percent of its natural flake graphite, according to estimates by Adam Megginson, a price analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
Workers at the site of a proposed nickel mine near Tamarack, Minn.Credit...Tim Gruber for The New York Times
Jennifer Harris, a former Biden White House official who worked on critical mineral strategy, argued that the country should move more quickly to develop and permit domestic mines, but that the United States also needs a new framework for multinational negotiations that include countries that are major mineral exporters.
The government could also set up a program to stockpile minerals like lithium when prices swing low, which would give miners more assurance they will find destinations for their products, she said.
“There’s so much that needs doing that this is very much a ‘both/and’ world,” she said. “The challenge is that we need to responsibly pull up a whole lot more rocks out of the ground yesterday.”
​

FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE~

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WHILE WE WAIT FOR THEM TO GET HERE! ANY DAY NOW?????
Chico
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2023.05.23 20:35 KingNickyThe1st WTF Is Coming Out Friday? May 26th Edition

220 KID - Let You Down
AJR x Nicolas Julian - Weak (Remix)
ALLEGRA - Round & Round (Tiësto Remix)
Anouk Matton - Vergeet Mij Niet
Audien & William Black - Would You Even Know
Autograf & Johanson - Over The Sea
Baauer, Party Favor - Thinkin of You
Behmer x AMBERLIND x Nathassia - Forbidden Love (feat. Jessica Chertock)
Blinders - Prayer (Part II)
Boss Axis - Celebrate
Braxton - The Fall
Carly Wilford, BIIANCO & Lea Lea - Been Right Here
Chicane feat. The Mannequin – Summer in E Major
Chris Connolly - Begin the Moment
Christina Novelli - We're Home (Rave Republic Remix)
Conjure One & Jaren - I Don’t Want to Go There (Dennis Sheperd Remix)
Darius Rose - You Think
Dastic - Fire & Ice [Universal Music]
Dastic – On My Own
David Guetta & MORTEN - Lost In The Rhythm
Deorro & Ookay - Patron
Djimboh - Lost In Space
Dua Lipa - Dance The Night
Duke & Jones - Voicemail
Duke & Jones – Voicemail
DVBBS, Jeremih & SK8 – Crew Thang
DVDDY, INITIATE & Steele - The End
Edx & Frey - The Rhythm Of The Night
Emma Hewitt x XiJaro & Pitch - Everlasting
Felix Jaehn, Sandro Cavazza - All For Love
Fonzerelli - Adrenaline
Francis Mercier, Kiesza - Egyptian Sun
Fredrick - The River
Gabry Ponte & Hosanna - One By One
Goodboys - Surrender
HALIENE - Million Miles (Da Tweekaz Remix)
Hal Stucker And Jardin - Empire
Hawk & Atiope - Live Is Life
helloworld - Things I Wanna Text You (EP)
HUGEL & BLONDISH - Es Un Secreto (feat. Pension & Juanmih)
Into The Ether - What If
Jesse Middleton - The Hermit
Just Kiddin (feat. Georgia Ku) - Out My Mind
Kai Wachi - Rise of the demigod EP
Karma Child - Irish Man
Kelly Clarkson - Favorite Kind Of High (David Guetta Remix)
Kungs & Carlita - Shadows
Lenny Pearce - Head, Shoulders, Knees & Toes
Luis Rodriguez - Fendi Gucci Vuitton
Mark Sixma & Achilles - I Don’t Care
Markus Schulz & Diandra Faye - Eternally
Mike Perry Ft. Ryan Edmond – Hustler Of The Heart
Modera And Phobe Tsen – Walks
Noisia - The Resonance VI
OBS - Lost on You
PS1 - Single Summer (feat. Richard Judge)
Ray Volpe - Happy Song
Shift K3Y - Work My Body
Sjaak x Kav Verhouzer x De Hofnar - Radio Love
Skytech, M7STIC, Tom Nash - Flash
Sneijder & Cari - You Take My Breath Away
Solarstone - Hope (Cold Blue Remix)
Starseed - Pathfinder (EP)
Swedish House Mafia - See The Light
Tiesto, Allegra - Round n Round
Tinlicker – All That I Lost
Varski X Cammie Robinson - Love Is My Religion
Will Rees ft. Tara Greene - Spiralling
Woody van Eyden & Alex Kudrow - Just Bounce Up
Wuki & Lee Foss – To Be Real (feat. Cheryl Lynn)
Yellow Claw – Cold Like Snow (feat. Sorn)
Yurie x Matthew James - All I Want (Remixes)
Yves Larock & TicTacTec - Dynamo
Zonderling - Variant
Zootah - Cupcakes
submitted by KingNickyThe1st to EDM [link] [comments]

2023.05.21 19:28 brandi_theratgirl Fresno City Council Meeting includes Arts items and ordinance against where unhoused people can be

Fresno City Council Meeting
Thursday, May 25, 9:00am, in person and on Zoom
Fresno City Hall, 2600 Fresno Street, Council Chambers email public comments to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) How to participate in a city council meeting Agenda Zoom link eComments not yet available
Agenda items of note (item documents liked) Proclamation for “Community Action Month”
3-C: Code Enforcement Quarterly report
Homelessness 1-MM Areas where people who are homeless would be prohibited from having belonings/ sleeping Bill - (For introduction) Adding Article 21 and Article 22 to Chapter 10 of the Fresno Municipal Code, Prohibiting Impeding on Sidewalks Within 500 Feet from Sensitive Areas Including Schools, Childcare Facilities, Public Parks, Public Libraries, Warming and Cooling Centers, and City-Permitted Shelters for the Unhoused. Proposed ordinance
Parks:
Youth:
Public Safety: 1-q: Approve use of Fresno Municipal Code Section 4-502(d), Design Build Qualification Method of procurement for automation and video surveillance at the City of Fresno Parking Garages.
1-KK Actions pertaining to the John Muir Elementary Safe Routes to School Project
1-LL: **RESOLUTION - Conduct a Traffic Assessment to Include Options for Improved Safety
Arts: 1-BB: Approve the Agreement between City of Fresno and Fresno Arts Council, Inc. of Fresno CA, a uniquely qualified consultant, in the amount of $207,500 for procurement of transportation art on behalf of the City of Fresno. and other agreements.
1-CC: Actions pertaining to the Caltrans Art Project at San Pablo Park at State Route 180 and Belmont Avenue
1-OO: ***RESOLUTION - Relating to the Retention of the Fresno Arts Council to Administer the City’s Cultural Arts Grant Programs Pursuant to Fresno Municipal Code Section 7-1506(B)(4) (Subject to Mayor’s Veto)
submitted by brandi_theratgirl to Fresnosocialjustice [link] [comments]

2023.05.20 23:38 CazOnReddit Reportedly, the Mavericks Want to Trade the 10th Pick. Here's What the 10th Pick Has Gotten On Draft Night, Historically.

So the Mavericks got to keep their pick and are looking to get Luka some help. Here's where we can take a brief look at what draft day trades the 10th pick has been involved in. Just to reiterate: These are trades that happened on or close to draft day involving the post-lottery draft picks i.e. we know where each pick will land in the draft. We're not counting situations where a draft pick was traded and conveyed in a future draft like Cam Reddish going 10th as part of the Hawks Luka/Trae trade.
There's admittedly not a ton of trades involving the 10th pick but there is some precedent as to what a deal around it will net a given team(s).
2021: A 3-team deal where the Pelicans traded the 10th pick (Ziaire Williams), a 2022 protected 1st (became a Bucks 1st after not conveying in 2022), the 40th pick (Jared Butler), Eric Bledsoe & Stephen Adams to the Grizzlies for Jonas Valančiūnas, the 17th pick (Trey Murphy), the 51st pick (Brandon Boston, later traded to the Clippers) and Devonte Graham from the Hornets; The Hornets got the rights to Wes Iwundu, a 2022 1st (Mark Williams)
The most recent trade involving the 10th pick...and it's a bit of a mess. I'll break it down by team:
Some teams definitely "won" more than the others but it's hard to say any of them didn't benefit in some way from this move.
2018: The 76ers traded the 10th overall pick (Mikal Bridges) to the Suns for the 16th pick (Zhaire Smith), a Miami 2021 first (Traded to the Timberwolves)
Who's down for some more dunking on the 76ers and The Process? Yeah, the 76ers could have had Mikal Bridges on their wings. Arguably the best 3 & D wing in the league and certainly the most durable, Mikal was a terrific player for the Suns, good enough to be the main piece in a deal for Kevin Durant, and his thus far brief tenure in Brooklyn has seen him emerge as a potential star for the Nets, though personally I feel it's too early to say since coaches will almost certainly be making adjustments to contain Bridges going into the next season as the Nets #1 option.
Zhaire Smith...was not that. Emphasis on the "was" because Zhaire isn't even in the league any longer. He got injured before playing a single game for Philly and only played a total of 13 games for the 76ers. Over 2 seasons. He got traded to the Pistons for Tony Bradley and was never heard from again after they waived him.
This trade wasn't a complete loss for the 76ers; they eventually traded that pick for Tobias Harris to form arguably the best starting 5 the Embiid-led 76ers ever had. What was a loss was letting Jimmy go in a sign and trade and overpaying Tobias but that's neither here nor there.
Needless to say that Philly got hosed pretty hard on this one.
2011: In a 3-team deal - The Bucks traded the 10th pick (Jimmer Fredette), Corey Maggette, John Salmons, for Beno Udrih, Stephen Jackson, Shaun Livingston, the 19th pick (Tobias Harris); Kings received 10th pick (Jimmer Fredette), John Salmons; Bobcats received the 7th pick (Bismack Biyombo), Corey Maggette
Another 3-teamer and another mess of a deal.
2000: The Clippers traded the 10th pick (Keyon Dooling) to the Magic for a future 1st (Marcus Williams), Derek Strong, Corey Maggette, cash
Look, all you need to know is this is the 2000 NBA Draft. There were, like, 5 not awful players and if the one your team selected wasn't named Michael Redd, Jamaal Magloire, Kenyon Martin, Mike Miller or Hedo Türkoğlu, your team has made a mistake, and even then guys like Magloire peaked early and quickly so it's not like there were many success stories from this draft.
Also Hedo, despite being a solid roleplayer in Orlando, is a genuinely loathsome human being but that's not something any scout could have known at the time. Put simply, the draft sucked - it's arguably the worst draft in NBA history relative to the talent of the league at the time - and the Clippers were smart to trade for a future pick. The Magic did get ROTY Miller with a different pick but Keyon Dooling did absolutely nothing for them, and the Clippers dodged a bullet by moving into a different draft class with this move.
Granted, that future pick became Marcus Williams who suffered from a serious case of "mid-i-tis" but that pick was traded in a different deal we won't get into. That said, if you want a fun NBA rabbit hole, go ahead and see the number of teams that 1st went from before it was used in 2006. Anyway, the real prize in this trade was Corey Maggette (Hi again Corey!). Corey Maggette wasn't exactly noteworthy in the above deal but for the Clippers? He was a damn solid starter, a 2 who could and did play the 3 and did so for L.A.'s little NBA brother for nearly a decade. He was never an All-Star but he played close to one at his peak and his tenure with the Clippers can only be considered a win for the purposes of this trade. Less so for the Clippers themselves since, well, they only made the playoffs once with him.
2023: Mavericks?
We're not sure what exactly the Mavericks are cooking up but based on the above trades, one would expect them to try and put to use Bertans contract and the fact that it's more or less expiring as a way of upgrading their roster, namely on the wings with some defensive minded forwards and a starting-caliber center because Dwight Powell is definitely not it. Perhaps they might even secure a future first out of the deal?
A few teams come to mind for trade partners, namely teams that would want to move up and/or shed salary as Bertans is only guaranteed $7 million/however much is needed to get the trade to go through:
Jazz - Despite rebuilding, Mormon Land's NBA team is still rather expensive so they could do with shedding salary via Kelly Olynyk and Rudy Gay. They also would allow the Mavericks to still have a pick in this draft with the 16th and 28th picks, and they have a bevy of future firsts on hand. That said, Danny Ainge is arguably the most difficult negotiator in the league and the Jazz already have the 9th pick so it's not like they're starved for spots to pick in the 1st round.
Thunder - They have 3 picks in this draft - including 12th overall - and 5 in the next. They need to start consolidating and if they want to move up in the draft to secure a certain player, they certainly have the means to do so. This would probably require a 3rd team that sends back players to the Mavericks because there aren't many on the Thunders roster that are likely candidates for departure.
Pacers - See the Thunder but this time it's 5 picks in this draft and 3 of them are first rounders. One of them isn't getting moved since it's better than the ones the Mavericks have, but the other two and perhaps Buddy Hield could be put together in a package to nab a second lottery selection. Maybe Chris Duarte?
Raptors - 10th isn't enough for O.G., let's just get that out of the way. For the Raptors, they have the 13th pick to keep the Mavericks in the lottery and defensive wings via Chris Boucher, Thad Young and Otto Porter Jr. Relying on Porter is a bad bet, as every team besides the Warriors will attest to however, and the Poeltl trade heavily restricts what future picks the team can send in a trade. Also like the Jazz, any negotiations are going to be notoriously difficult when they involve Masai Ujiri.
Bulls - 10th is definitely not good enough to get Zach LaVine, Vucevic is not good enough to warrant the 10th pick in a sign and trade. Maybe DeMar? The rumors around the Bulls blowing up their Big 3 right now are coming in hot so it wouldn't be a surprise if they moved him but I don't know if he's worth the 10th pick and salary given his age.
Pelicans - Uh... Jonas Valančiūnas in another trade involving the 10th pick for him and the 14th pick? He's expiring and not exactly a rim protecting-big but he can stretch the floor. Zion's extension kicks in this season so if nothing else, it would cut down on the salary for the year as Jonas is making over $15 million in 23/24. I guess there's also a sign and trade involving the center the Pelicans are ready to cut loose via Jaxson Hayes and pack him with whomever is drafted 14th but Hayes is Hornets-levels of a mess off-court. Then again, Mark Cuban isn't exactly known for letting terrible background history/off-court controversies from taking a player.
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2023.05.20 20:04 Intrigued_by_Words Weekly Wrap Up Monday May 15 - Friday May 19, 2023

I am still trying to figure out whether it is noble or idiotic for Spencer to be so obsessed with his infant brother. Mostly there are too many shades of Michael and his sister Avery. Although Spencer should have used the tried and true method of faking a paternity test. He's young, he can use that trick some other time because there will always be another time to fake paternity or maternity.
For some reason, Trina, Curtis and Marcus all took a paternity test. They keep saying it won't change anything. I keep saying, why are you subjecting us to yet another paternity story. While waiting for the test results, Curtis wants to relive the whole extramarital babymaking experience. Forgetting or ignoring that he is married to Portia, he kisses Jordan at the Savoy and tries to get her to leave with him. Jordan is tempted but wants to talk first. Really Jordan? Are pickings that slim? Curtis is a cutie, but he's married and he's a pain in the neck and he's her ex.
Robert barged in on his ex and Valentin to get Anna to tell him whether he should let Holly or Diane catch him. What's funny is that he said he liked Diane for her law and order vibe but she was a little safe. Holly has a great adventure seeking personality but he's playing at being a D.A. these days and wants to keep things on the up and up. If only he weren't seeking dating advice from his ex-wife who combined adventure with law and order.
Speaking of missing the obvious, I used to get really bored watching Sasha's scenes. I would zone out and not even realize it. But now things have changed. I'm riveted by the ways they try and hide the pregnancy bump. The coats, oversized bags, strategically placed boxes - good times. We need to enjoy this now before it becomes standard to just cgi out pregnancies and who knows what else.
Laura convinced Alexis to offer Esme a job at the magazine. Esme shocked them by agreeing to be a receptionist. But the biggest shock was when Esme found out that not only is Alexis a Cassadine but so is her daughter Sam McCall. Alexis says they are all family, what she means is that 3/4 of Port Charles are family.
Victor has sent a messenger around town to deliver invitations to the reading of his will to his family, friends, associates, you know the townsfolk. Trina and Spencer had a bizarre conversation about whether he should bother at all. Spencer made up something but why can't the answer just be that he wants the family money. He was dragging Esme for never having held a job, but he didn't fare too well at his stint at Kelly's. Let's face it, some people are cut out for inheriting their salary.
Michael is still screwing over Dex by not following up on the plan to have Sonny arrested. Joss tried to save the day by telling Sonny he had to fire Dex. Sonny laughed. Gladys tried to get Sonny to give her money for a tip to invest in Deception. Sonny laughed.
The home shopping channel tried to set Sasha up by playing the sound of a baby crying in her earpiece. They thought people would tune in to see her crack up. They might, but it seems far fetched that they would then buy stuff from you. Anyway, Cody somehow appeared in the right spot and deduced the entire plan. He threatened to streak in front of the cameras if they didn't stop. Since these people can only think in terms of bizarre farfetched plans, they opted not to just throw him out, but to acquiesce. Lots of people have warmed up to Cody and were probably excited to see him take his shirt off. Let's not put me in that group just yet.
Scott has plans for Cody. He wants him to go to the WSB and assert a claim for the Ice Princess as Leopold Taub's son and heir. Cody is more than willing to claim the millions but he is aware of a crucial flaw in the plan. Namely that his father is Mac Scorpio. Rather than just fess up, he's hemming and hawing and drawing out another mind-numbing paternity story.
They sucked Liesl's bone marrow out and either gave it to Willow or will give it to Willow. Whatever. But you've guessed it, Willow is still alive.
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2023.05.18 20:57 realjunkienj Bethenny on RHUGT: RHONY Legacy

Bethenny on RHUGT: RHONY Legacy
I just listened to Bethenny's most recent podcast regarding UGT RHONY Legacy:
  1. She basically says it's a great move for Bravo, financially, because they will only have to pay the women approximately $100K each for a week of work and get 4-6 episodes (probably closer to 7-8) out of it vs. paying them for a whole season (closer to $400K+) so Bravo wins.
  2. She says although she understands what Jill was trying to do, she should have just taken the deal she was offered. She also says the other RHONY women (minus Kelly and Kristen) screwed themselves as well, overplaying their hand, demanding a much higher salary. If they all could have met somewhere in the middle and favored nations, they probably would have had a full season. She says Jill also overplayed her hand by going on a whole speaking tour and talking about the process and that's probably why she wasn't invited to UGT. She says Jill never misses the opportunity to mess up the program.
  3. She says Kristen is nice and she's happy for her that she has this opportunity. She doesn't say anything negative about Kelly but does mock Luann a little about the pirate and being able to break out her crappy French in St. Barths.
  4. She hems and haws if she would watch it (I don't believe this) saying there's something about it she's not interested in, but can't think of what it is.
  5. She thinks the show will be entertaining and iconic and she's happy for the girls and it gives them a moment of relevance they all want (project much?). She never addresses Ramona's surprise return after calling it the "Loser" show, which is disappointing.
  6. She then goes on to talk about how the women on the show get the episodes a few days before for "damage control" and how she shared a shared private plan with Teresa's reunion dress.
So..some thoughts. First of all, this particular podcast episode is 13 minutes long with 3 commercial breaks that are at least 2-3 minutes long. Which leaves the time for actual content to about 4-6 minutes. She calls these "ReRants" vs. the actual 50-minute rewatch podcasts she does. OK.
I feel like at this point Bethenny has about as much relevancy as Luann and Ramona, so I'm not sure what the dig about "relevancy" was. I mean, obviously she thinks she is a superstar and the rest of them are D-list celebrities. But Bethenny's career has been on a decline for a while now. When is she going to realize she is at her greatest when she's on Housewives? This UGT would have been perfect for her, especially if one of her reasons for not being on reality TV is that her fiance has no interest in it. Her makeup videos and trips to WalMart are boring. No one cares. Prior to listening to this I thought maybe there would be a chance she would be a surprise guest, but it sure doesn't sound like it. And please FTLOG, don't have the surprise guest be Jill. She tried that on UGT2 and it fell very flat.
Anyone think there's a chance she may still join? And if not, who will? If it can't be Bethenny, it needs to be Aviva returning to the scene of the crime ("You're both white trash, quite frankly").
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2023.05.18 14:35 ctburkes $10 Mill Head Coach or $10 Mill NIL Budget

This is for my friends in the lower half of the P5. Would you rather have your program run by one of the top head coaches in the sport, whose salaries usually come in around $10 million these days. Think Saban, Smart, Day, Kelly, Riley but your NIL budget shrinks to just $1 million for the entire roster each year. Or would you rather have $10 million to spend on players, being able to buy one of the best rosters each year, but your head coach only makes about $1 million per year. Think Jason Candle, Mike McIntyre, Jim Mora Jr.
The NIL market is a little bit of a fog of war right now, but the estimation is that 5-8 million a year gets you a pretty solid P5 roster and 10-12 is where the big boys play.
So, does success start at the top or is it all about the Jimmies and the Joes?
submitted by ctburkes to CFB [link] [comments]

2023.05.13 15:56 rivsnation PHF Signings and News Roundup (4/30 - 5/12)

Signings

- Forward Brittyn Fleming inks new 2-year deal with Caps
- Whitecaps sign defender Olivia Knowles to 2-year deal
- The Hockey News: Force Sign Four, Including USports Stars
- PHF Free Agency File: May 1-7
- Toronto Six Open Offseason With Re-Signing Of Captain Shiann Darkangelo
- The Hockey News: Montreal Force Make It Official Signing Giguère and Schroeder
- Boston Signs Swiss Superstar Alina Müller
- Metropolitan Riveters Announce Re-Signing of Amanda Pelkey, Minttu Tuominen
- Minnesota State's Brooke Bryant signs deal with Whitecaps
- Boston Adds Another Northeastern Star Signing Chloé Aurard
- Star Netminder Amanda Leveille Re-Signs Another Season
- The Montréal Force have re-signed alternate captains Catherine Daoust and Sarah Lefort. They have also signed rookie Theresa Schafzahl to a two-year deal from the University of Vermont and Emma Keenan to a one-year deal

News

- The Hockey News: Biggest Offseason Needs For Each PHF Team
- PHF Announces 2022-23 Foundation Award Recipients
- The Hockey News: Friday Faceoff: Debating The PHF MVP Award
- NHL: Color of Hockey: Nash enjoys success in 1st season as LIU women's coach
- The Hockey News: Is This the PHF's Wildest Free Agency Ever?
Pride
- The Ice Garden: PHF Season in Review: Boston Pride
Whale
- The Ice Garden: PHF Season in Review: Connecticut Whale
- The Ice Garden: Mallory Souliotis Continues the Work for Epilepsy Awareness
- Whale sponsor and participate in Sk8 To Elimin8 Cancer
- Shannon Turner Named Whale’s PHF Foundation Award Winner
- Girard agrees to new terms with Whale
- Marchment and Whale reach new contract terms
- Whale and Munroe reach new contract terms
Riveters
- Pack is Back: Madison Packer Re-Signs With Metropolitan Riveters on Two-Year Deal
Whitecaps
- The Ice Garden: PHF Season in Review: Minnesota Whitecaps
Force
- The Hockey News: Meet Montreal's Audrey-Anne Veillette: "We're Going For A Cup"
- The Hockey News: Force Ink NCAA Standout Theresa Schafzahl
Toronto 6ix
- The Ice Garden: PHF Season in Review: Toronto Six
- Isobel Cup Tours Toronto
- Women's Hockey Life: Magic of the game captured through the lens of Lori Bolliger (Part One)

Videos/Podcasts

- Founding 4 Podcast: PHF Awards and Remembering Toronto! (length 1:00:44)
- Dan Rice: Around the Rink in the PHF - MayDay! Rumor SZN = Craziness (length 1:10:23)
- Line Change: Boston Pride stars Kali Flanagan and Loren Gabel discuss the state of women’s hockey (length 35:47)
submitted by rivsnation to hockey [link] [comments]

2023.05.12 23:03 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023.

S&P 500 closes lower, notches a second week of losses, following disappointing consumer sentiment data: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 fell Friday as concerns around the U.S. economy and regional banks dampened investor sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 8.89 points lower, or 0.03%, to close at 33,300.62. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.35%, ending the day at 12,284.74. The S&P 500 slipped 0.16%, closing at 4,124.08.
A preliminary reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a six-month low of 57.7. Economists polled by the Dow Jones expected a May reading of 63.0. The survey also showed the outlook for inflation over the next 5 years climbed to 3.2%, tying the highest clip since June 2008.
Investors are also keeping an eye on Washington as concern around debt ceiling negotiations persisted. CNBC reported that a debt ceiling meeting between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders that was set for Friday was postponed to next week.
“None of the sectors are making convincing moves in either direction, reflecting a general lack of conviction in the market,” said Joe Cusick, portfolio specialist and senior vice president at Calamos Investments.
The S&P 500 and Dow fell for a second consecutive week, down 0.29% and 1.11%, respectively. The Nasdaq gained 0.4%.
Meanwhile in the world of regional banks, PacWest fell 2.9%. On Thursday, regional banks dropped after PacWest said its deposits fell sharply last week.
Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected wholesale prices data, a sign of easing inflation, failed to shield investors from ongoing concerns of a downturn ahead on Thursday — particularly as a handful of stocks continue to carry the market.
Import prices were 0.4% month-over-month in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, marking the first rise so far in 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a 0.3% rise last month, compared to the decline of 0.6% the prior month.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

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S&P Sectors for this past week:

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Major Indices for this past week:

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Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

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Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

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Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

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May Monthly OpEx Week Weak - DJIA Down 12 of Last 14

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May’s monthly option expiration has been mixed over the longer-term since 1990. DJIA has been up eighteen of the last thirty-three May monthly expiration days with an average loss of 0.07%. Monthly OpEx week has a slight bearish bias with DJIA and S&P 500 down 18 and up 15.
More recently, DJIA has suffered declines in 12 of the last 14, monthly expiration weeks. S&P 500 has one additional weekly gain since 2009, down 11 of the last 14. NASDAQ has declined in 9 of the last 14. The week after has been best for S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
The week after options expiration is more bullish with S&P and NASDAQ up 11 of 14. Last year DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all gained over 6% in the week after.
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7 Questions About Regional Banks

There are so many questions that we get from our advisors and clients about the regional banking crisis, in addition to the debt ceiling (which Ryan covered in another blog). Here’re some answers to some of the common questions.

What is happening with regional banks?

The crisis erupted with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in early March. SVB hit the end of the road with a classic run on the bank, i.e. depositors rushing out the door, even as the bank’s asset values had deteriorated due to long-term bond holdings that lost value as interest rates surged over the past year. The FDIC eventually took over the insolvent bank, along with Signature Bank and First Republic (in late April). So regional banks have been under pressure over the past 2 months, as investors extrapolated some of the problems that plagued the three troubled banks to others.
Then last week saw renewed selling pressure on regional bank stocks. On May 4th, PacWest Bancorp fell 51.6% and Western Alliance Bancorp fell 41%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 7.2% just on that day. Now, as you can see in the chart below, there’s been quite a recovery since then, but prices are still down significantly since the crisis started. The KRE ETF is down almost 34.6% since March 8th, when the crisis started.
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Why are small bank stock prices still under pressure?

It helps to understand how a bank works. They make money by borrowing money from depositors (yes, when you put money in a bank, you’re lending money to it) and lending money to consumers and businesses. The difference between the interest rate they charge borrowers and the rate they pay depositors is their “net interest margin” (NIM), or profit. Right now, the fear is that profitability has reduced as banks, especially smaller ones, have to increase the rates they pay depositors to keep them from fleeing. However, what’s important to know is that reduced profitability is different from insolvency, which is what happened to the 3 banks that went under.

What’s different from SVB and some of these other regional banks?

The main problem for SVB was that more than 90% of their deposits were uninsured. When news spread that their assets were impaired, and they were looking to raise capital, these depositors fled as they were worried that they wouldn’t get their money back. We wrote about it in depth at the time.
In contrast, banks like PacWest and Western Alliance have a much smaller percent of deposits that are uninsured (about 25%) – making them potentially less prone to a run.

So why did the stock prices for these banks crash on May 4th?

As I wrote above, there doesn’t appear to be any fundamental solvency issues with these banks, other than perhaps reduced profitability. Instead, what happened last week was driven by stock market speculation. Case in point, short selling and put option activity on PacWest and Western Alliance surged recently. Put options allow investors to profit from lower stock prices. In this case, market makers and dealers who sold these positions were “long” stocks and had to hedge that by shorting. This pushed prices lower, and eventually led to dealers having to sell even more shares short, especially as investors bought even more puts.
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Wait, is this something like the meme stock frenzy?

In a sense, yes. If you remember, back in early 2021 stock prices for meme stocks surged on speculative activity, particularly call option buying. Dealers who sold these options were essentially “short” the stock. So, they had to hedge to be directionally neutral, which they did by buying stock, pushing prices higher. And as the social media frenzy picked up, prices surged as dealers had to buy even more stock.
I made the following schematic to illustrate what happened with regional banks last week. Now historically bank runs have been triggered by news events, and that can potentially happen a lot quicker these days because of social media. Speculators were betting that the bank in trouble will see deposits flee, and eventually be taken over by the FDIC, an event that would wipe out shareholders and result in profits for investors betting on these bank stock prices crashing. The good news is that the negative feedback loop was broken pretty quickly.
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Could this be the canary in the coalmine, and can the crisis spread?

Never say never in the investment business. But one big sign that trouble is not spreading is that banks are not accessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) liquidity facilities to the extent they were a few weeks ago. Loans to banks via the Fed’s facilities are at the lowest level in 7 weeks. There are three pieces here: * Lending to FDIC depository institutions (yellow bar in the chart below) – These are loans extended to banks that were subsequently taken over by the FDIC, like SVB, Signature and First Republic. This increased in the latest data because First Republic was just taken over. * Discount window (dark blue bars) – Banks can use this to access liquidity in exchange for collateral (like US treasuries). It’s fallen from $153 billion to $5 billion over the last month, which is close to where it was before the SVB crisis. * Bank term funding program (green bar) – This is a new facility that the Fed set up in March after the SVB crisis. Banks can access liquidity here by exchanging securities at their full par value. This has dropped from a peak of $81 billion to $76 billion, which is a very positive sign.
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Another positive sign: the latest data from the Fed shows that deposits at small commercial banks in the US have stabilized over the past month. Deposits at these banks cratered over the two weeks after the SVB crisis, and the worry was that this would continue.
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Will there be a broader economic impact, due to a credit crunch?

The latest Fed survey of loan officers from showed that banks tightened credit at the start of the second quarter. However, the net percent of survey respondents saying they tightened standards for commercial and industrial loans did not increase significantly, rising from 44.8% in January to 46% in April. But here’s the other side of that: 54% said that standards “remained basically unchanged”.
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Make no mistake, credit standards have tightened over the past year. But that was already the case before the SVB crisis, and it really hasn’t had much of an impact on the economy as we saw from the recent GDP growth data for Q1.
Note that banks are still making loans. In fact, bank lending is up 8.5% over the past year – it was running at a pace of around 5% before the pandemic. Now a big part of that is due to inflation, as higher prices mean loans are larger. But bank lending doesn’t look to have completely collapsed.
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Ultimately, what is important with respect to the current economic expansion (since 2020) is that this is NOT a credit driven cycle. This contrasts with the late 1980s, late 1990s and mid-2000s. During those periods, credit growth drove business and real estate investment, and consumer spending. Eventually, when losses on loans spread, credit was pulled back and the economy went into a recession.
Right now, economic growth is being driven by strong incomes, because of strong employment and wage growth. And so far, there’s no reason to believe that will not continue.

Stocks Love Day Before Mother’s Day Better

With just a few days until Mother’s Day, this is also a reminder. Always used to plant flowers with mom and pick the fresh blooming lilacs. Over the last 28 years on the Friday before Mother’s Day Dow has gained ground 19 times. On Monday after, DJIA has advanced 17 times. Average gain on Friday has been 0.26% and 0.23% on Monday. However, Monday following Mother’s Day has been down 8 of the last 11 years. In 2019, DJIA suffered its worst post Mother’s Day loss going back to 1995, off 2.38%.
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11 Things To Know About The Debt Ceiling

“I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.”
– Will Rogers
One of the top questions we’ve received lately has to do with the impending debt ceiling drama and what it could all mean. Here are some common questions and answers regarding this excitement out of Washington.
  • What is the debt ceiling? Simply put, it is how much money our country has to pay the bills, authorized by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the Treasury. This is one of those weird ways in which government functions. Congress typically authorizes spending bills, which the President signs into law. Historically, this spending has exceeded government revenues, and Treasury issues debt to cover the deficit. However, there is a “ceiling” to how much total debt Treasury can incur. Congress typically has to pass a second bill authorizing the ceiling to move higher, so that Treasury can pay for spending that was already passed into law. Not raising the debt ceiling is akin to going to a restaurant, ordering and eating the food, and then walking out without paying the bill.
  • What is paid from this? Medicare and Social Security are two of the big ones. But tax refunds, military salaries and interest on national debt are also part of the current $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.
  • How common is a debt ceiling increase? Very common is the short answer. The first time it was used was in 1917 to help finance World War I and has happened more than 100 times since. In fact, every President back to Eisenhower has increased the debt ceiling, for a total of 89 times since 1959. President Biden has increased it twice already, which is the least number of times any President has increased it going back 11 Presidents.
  • What happens if the current debt ceiling isn’t increased? In theory the U.S. would default on their debt, meaning they’ve run out of money and can’t pay the bills. We do not expect this to happen, and it has only happened once in history, in 1979, but that was more of a clerical error and was fixed rather quickly. Janet Yellen recently said it needs to be increased or such a failure would lead to a “steep economic downturn” in the U.S.
  • Who else does it this way? The only two countries who have a debt ceiling and require the Government to vote on it and set the limits are the U.S. and Denmark. That’s it. Nearly all other countries set things as a percentage of their GDP. Why does this U.S. choose to do it this way? This one may be out of my paygrade, but I think it could have something to do with why we like our political theater here in the U.S.
  • When will the U.S. run out of money? This is known as the ‘X date’, when the U.S. will run out of money. No one knows this exact day, but Janet Yellen recently said it could be as early as June 1, well before when some of the well-known investment banks were forecasting. Sometime in June seems to be the most widely expected timeframe.
  • What options does Congress have? They could do nothing and potentially let the U.S. default, while they could also raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Another option is Congress can suspend the debt ceiling, something they did seven times since 2013, including as recently as August 2019 to July 2021. President Biden has invited the major members of Congress (Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, and Hakeem Jefferies) to the White House today (May 9) to discuss and find a resolution.
  • What about the makeup of Congress? Speaking of Congress, the debt ceiling has historically been increased whether we’ve had a Democratic, Republican or split Congress. Majority of the time, debt ceilings have been raised when Democrats have full control, though that’s because they were in the power majority of the time since 1959. Specifically, when we have a split Congress (like right now, with a Democratic Senate and Republican House), the debt ceiling has been increased 24 times. So, history says that a split Congress shouldn’t be an impediment to raising the ceiling yet again.
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  • How likely is a deal? Sonu put together this great SWOT analysis of President Biden and Speaker McCarthy, with some help from Punchbowl News. The Carson Investment Research team’s base case remains that there’s a big disconnect between the two sides right now, but the opportunity is there for some dealing with a final deal before the clock strikes midnight after the final posturing. Ultimately, it’s in neither President Biden’s or Speaker McCarthy’s interest to see a default, and potential economic catastrophe, under their watch.
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  • What happens if they let the U.S. default? We’d like to stress this is not the base case and we fully expect cooler heads to prevail, but should the U.S. default on its debt (meaning they miss a bond payment to holders of Treasuries) the chances greatly increase of much higher interest rates, a likely recession, and extreme market volatility. Many investors remember back in the summer of 2011 when both sides had trouble agreeing on a new debt ceiling and S&P downgraded the debt on the U.S., causing nearly a 19% decline in the S&P 500 over the following week.
  • What do most of the experts think? Most political experts we follow expect the debt ceiling to be increased before X date, making it 90 increases since 1959. This is Washington after all and everyone has an agenda, but we don’t expect the current members of Congress want to be blamed should the U.S. default on its debt, causing a major drop in the stock market and potential recession right ahead of an election year.
So there you have it, 11 things to know about the current debt ceiling drama. We are a long way from a resolution and this will likely be all over the news the coming weeks, but in the end, we think the football will be punted once again.

Megacaps Still Carrying Their Weight

Heading into earnings season, there was a considerable amount of angst on the part of investors regarding the mecacap stocks and how they would react to their earnings reports. Given their outperformance in Q1, the prevailing view was that the bar was too high, leaving the megacaps susceptible to disappointment when they reported. Within the S&P 500, there are seven companies whose weighting exceeds 1.5% in the index, and in the chart below we list the performance of each company's stock (largest to smallest) on the earnings reaction day of their most recent report. Of the seven companies highlighted, only two (Alphabet and Amazon.com) declined in reaction to their reports. Two stocks (Nvidia and Meta) surged more than 10%, one (Microsoft) rallied more than 7%, and Apple, with its weighting of over 7%, managed to rise more than 4.5% following its report last week. There's still a ton of reports left to get through before earnings season winds down, but on a market cap basis, we're past the peak, and based on the reactions of the largest companies in the market, it's been a much better earnings season than most investors expected.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending May 12th, 2023

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5/14/23

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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($BABA $HD $WMT $MNDY $TGT $SE $BIDU $WKHS $AZUL $NU $CSCO $DE $TJX $AMAT $QBTS $CSIQ $ONON $JACK $FREY $CTLT $ARCO $TSEM $TRVN $INVO $SBLK $DLO $NOVN $AMPS $GBNH $PSFE $ZEV $FL $SQM $LSPD $WIX $STNE $DT $GRAB $TME $SNPS $MMYT $TTWO $GOOS $HCDI $LLAP $XWEL $IQ $BBWI $SOHU $CGAU)
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(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
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2023.05.12 23:03 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023.

S&P 500 closes lower, notches a second week of losses, following disappointing consumer sentiment data: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 fell Friday as concerns around the U.S. economy and regional banks dampened investor sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 8.89 points lower, or 0.03%, to close at 33,300.62. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.35%, ending the day at 12,284.74. The S&P 500 slipped 0.16%, closing at 4,124.08.
A preliminary reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a six-month low of 57.7. Economists polled by the Dow Jones expected a May reading of 63.0. The survey also showed the outlook for inflation over the next 5 years climbed to 3.2%, tying the highest clip since June 2008.
Investors are also keeping an eye on Washington as concern around debt ceiling negotiations persisted. CNBC reported that a debt ceiling meeting between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders that was set for Friday was postponed to next week.
“None of the sectors are making convincing moves in either direction, reflecting a general lack of conviction in the market,” said Joe Cusick, portfolio specialist and senior vice president at Calamos Investments.
The S&P 500 and Dow fell for a second consecutive week, down 0.29% and 1.11%, respectively. The Nasdaq gained 0.4%.
Meanwhile in the world of regional banks, PacWest fell 2.9%. On Thursday, regional banks dropped after PacWest said its deposits fell sharply last week.
Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected wholesale prices data, a sign of easing inflation, failed to shield investors from ongoing concerns of a downturn ahead on Thursday — particularly as a handful of stocks continue to carry the market.
Import prices were 0.4% month-over-month in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, marking the first rise so far in 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a 0.3% rise last month, compared to the decline of 0.6% the prior month.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

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Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

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May Monthly OpEx Week Weak - DJIA Down 12 of Last 14

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May’s monthly option expiration has been mixed over the longer-term since 1990. DJIA has been up eighteen of the last thirty-three May monthly expiration days with an average loss of 0.07%. Monthly OpEx week has a slight bearish bias with DJIA and S&P 500 down 18 and up 15.
More recently, DJIA has suffered declines in 12 of the last 14, monthly expiration weeks. S&P 500 has one additional weekly gain since 2009, down 11 of the last 14. NASDAQ has declined in 9 of the last 14. The week after has been best for S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
The week after options expiration is more bullish with S&P and NASDAQ up 11 of 14. Last year DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all gained over 6% in the week after.
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7 Questions About Regional Banks

There are so many questions that we get from our advisors and clients about the regional banking crisis, in addition to the debt ceiling (which Ryan covered in another blog). Here’re some answers to some of the common questions.

What is happening with regional banks?

The crisis erupted with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in early March. SVB hit the end of the road with a classic run on the bank, i.e. depositors rushing out the door, even as the bank’s asset values had deteriorated due to long-term bond holdings that lost value as interest rates surged over the past year. The FDIC eventually took over the insolvent bank, along with Signature Bank and First Republic (in late April). So regional banks have been under pressure over the past 2 months, as investors extrapolated some of the problems that plagued the three troubled banks to others.
Then last week saw renewed selling pressure on regional bank stocks. On May 4th, PacWest Bancorp fell 51.6% and Western Alliance Bancorp fell 41%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 7.2% just on that day. Now, as you can see in the chart below, there’s been quite a recovery since then, but prices are still down significantly since the crisis started. The KRE ETF is down almost 34.6% since March 8th, when the crisis started.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why are small bank stock prices still under pressure?

It helps to understand how a bank works. They make money by borrowing money from depositors (yes, when you put money in a bank, you’re lending money to it) and lending money to consumers and businesses. The difference between the interest rate they charge borrowers and the rate they pay depositors is their “net interest margin” (NIM), or profit. Right now, the fear is that profitability has reduced as banks, especially smaller ones, have to increase the rates they pay depositors to keep them from fleeing. However, what’s important to know is that reduced profitability is different from insolvency, which is what happened to the 3 banks that went under.

What’s different from SVB and some of these other regional banks?

The main problem for SVB was that more than 90% of their deposits were uninsured. When news spread that their assets were impaired, and they were looking to raise capital, these depositors fled as they were worried that they wouldn’t get their money back. We wrote about it in depth at the time.
In contrast, banks like PacWest and Western Alliance have a much smaller percent of deposits that are uninsured (about 25%) – making them potentially less prone to a run.

So why did the stock prices for these banks crash on May 4th?

As I wrote above, there doesn’t appear to be any fundamental solvency issues with these banks, other than perhaps reduced profitability. Instead, what happened last week was driven by stock market speculation. Case in point, short selling and put option activity on PacWest and Western Alliance surged recently. Put options allow investors to profit from lower stock prices. In this case, market makers and dealers who sold these positions were “long” stocks and had to hedge that by shorting. This pushed prices lower, and eventually led to dealers having to sell even more shares short, especially as investors bought even more puts.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Wait, is this something like the meme stock frenzy?

In a sense, yes. If you remember, back in early 2021 stock prices for meme stocks surged on speculative activity, particularly call option buying. Dealers who sold these options were essentially “short” the stock. So, they had to hedge to be directionally neutral, which they did by buying stock, pushing prices higher. And as the social media frenzy picked up, prices surged as dealers had to buy even more stock.
I made the following schematic to illustrate what happened with regional banks last week. Now historically bank runs have been triggered by news events, and that can potentially happen a lot quicker these days because of social media. Speculators were betting that the bank in trouble will see deposits flee, and eventually be taken over by the FDIC, an event that would wipe out shareholders and result in profits for investors betting on these bank stock prices crashing. The good news is that the negative feedback loop was broken pretty quickly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Could this be the canary in the coalmine, and can the crisis spread?

Never say never in the investment business. But one big sign that trouble is not spreading is that banks are not accessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) liquidity facilities to the extent they were a few weeks ago. Loans to banks via the Fed’s facilities are at the lowest level in 7 weeks. There are three pieces here: * Lending to FDIC depository institutions (yellow bar in the chart below) – These are loans extended to banks that were subsequently taken over by the FDIC, like SVB, Signature and First Republic. This increased in the latest data because First Republic was just taken over. * Discount window (dark blue bars) – Banks can use this to access liquidity in exchange for collateral (like US treasuries). It’s fallen from $153 billion to $5 billion over the last month, which is close to where it was before the SVB crisis. * Bank term funding program (green bar) – This is a new facility that the Fed set up in March after the SVB crisis. Banks can access liquidity here by exchanging securities at their full par value. This has dropped from a peak of $81 billion to $76 billion, which is a very positive sign.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another positive sign: the latest data from the Fed shows that deposits at small commercial banks in the US have stabilized over the past month. Deposits at these banks cratered over the two weeks after the SVB crisis, and the worry was that this would continue.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Will there be a broader economic impact, due to a credit crunch?

The latest Fed survey of loan officers from showed that banks tightened credit at the start of the second quarter. However, the net percent of survey respondents saying they tightened standards for commercial and industrial loans did not increase significantly, rising from 44.8% in January to 46% in April. But here’s the other side of that: 54% said that standards “remained basically unchanged”.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Make no mistake, credit standards have tightened over the past year. But that was already the case before the SVB crisis, and it really hasn’t had much of an impact on the economy as we saw from the recent GDP growth data for Q1.
Note that banks are still making loans. In fact, bank lending is up 8.5% over the past year – it was running at a pace of around 5% before the pandemic. Now a big part of that is due to inflation, as higher prices mean loans are larger. But bank lending doesn’t look to have completely collapsed.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Ultimately, what is important with respect to the current economic expansion (since 2020) is that this is NOT a credit driven cycle. This contrasts with the late 1980s, late 1990s and mid-2000s. During those periods, credit growth drove business and real estate investment, and consumer spending. Eventually, when losses on loans spread, credit was pulled back and the economy went into a recession.
Right now, economic growth is being driven by strong incomes, because of strong employment and wage growth. And so far, there’s no reason to believe that will not continue.

Stocks Love Day Before Mother’s Day Better

With just a few days until Mother’s Day, this is also a reminder. Always used to plant flowers with mom and pick the fresh blooming lilacs. Over the last 28 years on the Friday before Mother’s Day Dow has gained ground 19 times. On Monday after, DJIA has advanced 17 times. Average gain on Friday has been 0.26% and 0.23% on Monday. However, Monday following Mother’s Day has been down 8 of the last 11 years. In 2019, DJIA suffered its worst post Mother’s Day loss going back to 1995, off 2.38%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

11 Things To Know About The Debt Ceiling

“I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.”
– Will Rogers
One of the top questions we’ve received lately has to do with the impending debt ceiling drama and what it could all mean. Here are some common questions and answers regarding this excitement out of Washington.
  • What is the debt ceiling? Simply put, it is how much money our country has to pay the bills, authorized by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the Treasury. This is one of those weird ways in which government functions. Congress typically authorizes spending bills, which the President signs into law. Historically, this spending has exceeded government revenues, and Treasury issues debt to cover the deficit. However, there is a “ceiling” to how much total debt Treasury can incur. Congress typically has to pass a second bill authorizing the ceiling to move higher, so that Treasury can pay for spending that was already passed into law. Not raising the debt ceiling is akin to going to a restaurant, ordering and eating the food, and then walking out without paying the bill.
  • What is paid from this? Medicare and Social Security are two of the big ones. But tax refunds, military salaries and interest on national debt are also part of the current $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.
  • How common is a debt ceiling increase? Very common is the short answer. The first time it was used was in 1917 to help finance World War I and has happened more than 100 times since. In fact, every President back to Eisenhower has increased the debt ceiling, for a total of 89 times since 1959. President Biden has increased it twice already, which is the least number of times any President has increased it going back 11 Presidents.
  • What happens if the current debt ceiling isn’t increased? In theory the U.S. would default on their debt, meaning they’ve run out of money and can’t pay the bills. We do not expect this to happen, and it has only happened once in history, in 1979, but that was more of a clerical error and was fixed rather quickly. Janet Yellen recently said it needs to be increased or such a failure would lead to a “steep economic downturn” in the U.S.
  • Who else does it this way? The only two countries who have a debt ceiling and require the Government to vote on it and set the limits are the U.S. and Denmark. That’s it. Nearly all other countries set things as a percentage of their GDP. Why does this U.S. choose to do it this way? This one may be out of my paygrade, but I think it could have something to do with why we like our political theater here in the U.S.
  • When will the U.S. run out of money? This is known as the ‘X date’, when the U.S. will run out of money. No one knows this exact day, but Janet Yellen recently said it could be as early as June 1, well before when some of the well-known investment banks were forecasting. Sometime in June seems to be the most widely expected timeframe.
  • What options does Congress have? They could do nothing and potentially let the U.S. default, while they could also raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Another option is Congress can suspend the debt ceiling, something they did seven times since 2013, including as recently as August 2019 to July 2021. President Biden has invited the major members of Congress (Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, and Hakeem Jefferies) to the White House today (May 9) to discuss and find a resolution.
  • What about the makeup of Congress? Speaking of Congress, the debt ceiling has historically been increased whether we’ve had a Democratic, Republican or split Congress. Majority of the time, debt ceilings have been raised when Democrats have full control, though that’s because they were in the power majority of the time since 1959. Specifically, when we have a split Congress (like right now, with a Democratic Senate and Republican House), the debt ceiling has been increased 24 times. So, history says that a split Congress shouldn’t be an impediment to raising the ceiling yet again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
  • How likely is a deal? Sonu put together this great SWOT analysis of President Biden and Speaker McCarthy, with some help from Punchbowl News. The Carson Investment Research team’s base case remains that there’s a big disconnect between the two sides right now, but the opportunity is there for some dealing with a final deal before the clock strikes midnight after the final posturing. Ultimately, it’s in neither President Biden’s or Speaker McCarthy’s interest to see a default, and potential economic catastrophe, under their watch.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
  • What happens if they let the U.S. default? We’d like to stress this is not the base case and we fully expect cooler heads to prevail, but should the U.S. default on its debt (meaning they miss a bond payment to holders of Treasuries) the chances greatly increase of much higher interest rates, a likely recession, and extreme market volatility. Many investors remember back in the summer of 2011 when both sides had trouble agreeing on a new debt ceiling and S&P downgraded the debt on the U.S., causing nearly a 19% decline in the S&P 500 over the following week.
  • What do most of the experts think? Most political experts we follow expect the debt ceiling to be increased before X date, making it 90 increases since 1959. This is Washington after all and everyone has an agenda, but we don’t expect the current members of Congress want to be blamed should the U.S. default on its debt, causing a major drop in the stock market and potential recession right ahead of an election year.
So there you have it, 11 things to know about the current debt ceiling drama. We are a long way from a resolution and this will likely be all over the news the coming weeks, but in the end, we think the football will be punted once again.

Megacaps Still Carrying Their Weight

Heading into earnings season, there was a considerable amount of angst on the part of investors regarding the mecacap stocks and how they would react to their earnings reports. Given their outperformance in Q1, the prevailing view was that the bar was too high, leaving the megacaps susceptible to disappointment when they reported. Within the S&P 500, there are seven companies whose weighting exceeds 1.5% in the index, and in the chart below we list the performance of each company's stock (largest to smallest) on the earnings reaction day of their most recent report. Of the seven companies highlighted, only two (Alphabet and Amazon.com) declined in reaction to their reports. Two stocks (Nvidia and Meta) surged more than 10%, one (Microsoft) rallied more than 7%, and Apple, with its weighting of over 7%, managed to rise more than 4.5% following its report last week. There's still a ton of reports left to get through before earnings season winds down, but on a market cap basis, we're past the peak, and based on the reactions of the largest companies in the market, it's been a much better earnings season than most investors expected.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending May 12th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5/14/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($BABA $HD $WMT $MNDY $TGT $SE $BIDU $WKHS $AZUL $NU $CSCO $DE $TJX $AMAT $QBTS $CSIQ $ONON $JACK $FREY $CTLT $ARCO $TSEM $TRVN $INVO $SBLK $DLO $NOVN $AMPS $GBNH $PSFE $ZEV $FL $SQM $LSPD $WIX $STNE $DT $GRAB $TME $SNPS $MMYT $TTWO $GOOS $HCDI $LLAP $XWEL $IQ $BBWI $SOHU $CGAU)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]

2023.05.12 23:02 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023.

S&P 500 closes lower, notches a second week of losses, following disappointing consumer sentiment data: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 fell Friday as concerns around the U.S. economy and regional banks dampened investor sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 8.89 points lower, or 0.03%, to close at 33,300.62. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.35%, ending the day at 12,284.74. The S&P 500 slipped 0.16%, closing at 4,124.08.
A preliminary reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a six-month low of 57.7. Economists polled by the Dow Jones expected a May reading of 63.0. The survey also showed the outlook for inflation over the next 5 years climbed to 3.2%, tying the highest clip since June 2008.
Investors are also keeping an eye on Washington as concern around debt ceiling negotiations persisted. CNBC reported that a debt ceiling meeting between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders that was set for Friday was postponed to next week.
“None of the sectors are making convincing moves in either direction, reflecting a general lack of conviction in the market,” said Joe Cusick, portfolio specialist and senior vice president at Calamos Investments.
The S&P 500 and Dow fell for a second consecutive week, down 0.29% and 1.11%, respectively. The Nasdaq gained 0.4%.
Meanwhile in the world of regional banks, PacWest fell 2.9%. On Thursday, regional banks dropped after PacWest said its deposits fell sharply last week.
Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected wholesale prices data, a sign of easing inflation, failed to shield investors from ongoing concerns of a downturn ahead on Thursday — particularly as a handful of stocks continue to carry the market.
Import prices were 0.4% month-over-month in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, marking the first rise so far in 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a 0.3% rise last month, compared to the decline of 0.6% the prior month.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

May Monthly OpEx Week Weak - DJIA Down 12 of Last 14

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May’s monthly option expiration has been mixed over the longer-term since 1990. DJIA has been up eighteen of the last thirty-three May monthly expiration days with an average loss of 0.07%. Monthly OpEx week has a slight bearish bias with DJIA and S&P 500 down 18 and up 15.
More recently, DJIA has suffered declines in 12 of the last 14, monthly expiration weeks. S&P 500 has one additional weekly gain since 2009, down 11 of the last 14. NASDAQ has declined in 9 of the last 14. The week after has been best for S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
The week after options expiration is more bullish with S&P and NASDAQ up 11 of 14. Last year DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all gained over 6% in the week after.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

7 Questions About Regional Banks

There are so many questions that we get from our advisors and clients about the regional banking crisis, in addition to the debt ceiling (which Ryan covered in another blog). Here’re some answers to some of the common questions.

What is happening with regional banks?

The crisis erupted with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in early March. SVB hit the end of the road with a classic run on the bank, i.e. depositors rushing out the door, even as the bank’s asset values had deteriorated due to long-term bond holdings that lost value as interest rates surged over the past year. The FDIC eventually took over the insolvent bank, along with Signature Bank and First Republic (in late April). So regional banks have been under pressure over the past 2 months, as investors extrapolated some of the problems that plagued the three troubled banks to others.
Then last week saw renewed selling pressure on regional bank stocks. On May 4th, PacWest Bancorp fell 51.6% and Western Alliance Bancorp fell 41%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 7.2% just on that day. Now, as you can see in the chart below, there’s been quite a recovery since then, but prices are still down significantly since the crisis started. The KRE ETF is down almost 34.6% since March 8th, when the crisis started.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why are small bank stock prices still under pressure?

It helps to understand how a bank works. They make money by borrowing money from depositors (yes, when you put money in a bank, you’re lending money to it) and lending money to consumers and businesses. The difference between the interest rate they charge borrowers and the rate they pay depositors is their “net interest margin” (NIM), or profit. Right now, the fear is that profitability has reduced as banks, especially smaller ones, have to increase the rates they pay depositors to keep them from fleeing. However, what’s important to know is that reduced profitability is different from insolvency, which is what happened to the 3 banks that went under.

What’s different from SVB and some of these other regional banks?

The main problem for SVB was that more than 90% of their deposits were uninsured. When news spread that their assets were impaired, and they were looking to raise capital, these depositors fled as they were worried that they wouldn’t get their money back. We wrote about it in depth at the time.
In contrast, banks like PacWest and Western Alliance have a much smaller percent of deposits that are uninsured (about 25%) – making them potentially less prone to a run.

So why did the stock prices for these banks crash on May 4th?

As I wrote above, there doesn’t appear to be any fundamental solvency issues with these banks, other than perhaps reduced profitability. Instead, what happened last week was driven by stock market speculation. Case in point, short selling and put option activity on PacWest and Western Alliance surged recently. Put options allow investors to profit from lower stock prices. In this case, market makers and dealers who sold these positions were “long” stocks and had to hedge that by shorting. This pushed prices lower, and eventually led to dealers having to sell even more shares short, especially as investors bought even more puts.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Wait, is this something like the meme stock frenzy?

In a sense, yes. If you remember, back in early 2021 stock prices for meme stocks surged on speculative activity, particularly call option buying. Dealers who sold these options were essentially “short” the stock. So, they had to hedge to be directionally neutral, which they did by buying stock, pushing prices higher. And as the social media frenzy picked up, prices surged as dealers had to buy even more stock.
I made the following schematic to illustrate what happened with regional banks last week. Now historically bank runs have been triggered by news events, and that can potentially happen a lot quicker these days because of social media. Speculators were betting that the bank in trouble will see deposits flee, and eventually be taken over by the FDIC, an event that would wipe out shareholders and result in profits for investors betting on these bank stock prices crashing. The good news is that the negative feedback loop was broken pretty quickly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Could this be the canary in the coalmine, and can the crisis spread?

Never say never in the investment business. But one big sign that trouble is not spreading is that banks are not accessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) liquidity facilities to the extent they were a few weeks ago. Loans to banks via the Fed’s facilities are at the lowest level in 7 weeks. There are three pieces here: * Lending to FDIC depository institutions (yellow bar in the chart below) – These are loans extended to banks that were subsequently taken over by the FDIC, like SVB, Signature and First Republic. This increased in the latest data because First Republic was just taken over. * Discount window (dark blue bars) – Banks can use this to access liquidity in exchange for collateral (like US treasuries). It’s fallen from $153 billion to $5 billion over the last month, which is close to where it was before the SVB crisis. * Bank term funding program (green bar) – This is a new facility that the Fed set up in March after the SVB crisis. Banks can access liquidity here by exchanging securities at their full par value. This has dropped from a peak of $81 billion to $76 billion, which is a very positive sign.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another positive sign: the latest data from the Fed shows that deposits at small commercial banks in the US have stabilized over the past month. Deposits at these banks cratered over the two weeks after the SVB crisis, and the worry was that this would continue.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Will there be a broader economic impact, due to a credit crunch?

The latest Fed survey of loan officers from showed that banks tightened credit at the start of the second quarter. However, the net percent of survey respondents saying they tightened standards for commercial and industrial loans did not increase significantly, rising from 44.8% in January to 46% in April. But here’s the other side of that: 54% said that standards “remained basically unchanged”.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Make no mistake, credit standards have tightened over the past year. But that was already the case before the SVB crisis, and it really hasn’t had much of an impact on the economy as we saw from the recent GDP growth data for Q1.
Note that banks are still making loans. In fact, bank lending is up 8.5% over the past year – it was running at a pace of around 5% before the pandemic. Now a big part of that is due to inflation, as higher prices mean loans are larger. But bank lending doesn’t look to have completely collapsed.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Ultimately, what is important with respect to the current economic expansion (since 2020) is that this is NOT a credit driven cycle. This contrasts with the late 1980s, late 1990s and mid-2000s. During those periods, credit growth drove business and real estate investment, and consumer spending. Eventually, when losses on loans spread, credit was pulled back and the economy went into a recession.
Right now, economic growth is being driven by strong incomes, because of strong employment and wage growth. And so far, there’s no reason to believe that will not continue.

Stocks Love Day Before Mother’s Day Better

With just a few days until Mother’s Day, this is also a reminder. Always used to plant flowers with mom and pick the fresh blooming lilacs. Over the last 28 years on the Friday before Mother’s Day Dow has gained ground 19 times. On Monday after, DJIA has advanced 17 times. Average gain on Friday has been 0.26% and 0.23% on Monday. However, Monday following Mother’s Day has been down 8 of the last 11 years. In 2019, DJIA suffered its worst post Mother’s Day loss going back to 1995, off 2.38%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

11 Things To Know About The Debt Ceiling

“I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.”
– Will Rogers
One of the top questions we’ve received lately has to do with the impending debt ceiling drama and what it could all mean. Here are some common questions and answers regarding this excitement out of Washington.
  • What is the debt ceiling? Simply put, it is how much money our country has to pay the bills, authorized by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the Treasury. This is one of those weird ways in which government functions. Congress typically authorizes spending bills, which the President signs into law. Historically, this spending has exceeded government revenues, and Treasury issues debt to cover the deficit. However, there is a “ceiling” to how much total debt Treasury can incur. Congress typically has to pass a second bill authorizing the ceiling to move higher, so that Treasury can pay for spending that was already passed into law. Not raising the debt ceiling is akin to going to a restaurant, ordering and eating the food, and then walking out without paying the bill.
  • What is paid from this? Medicare and Social Security are two of the big ones. But tax refunds, military salaries and interest on national debt are also part of the current $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.
  • How common is a debt ceiling increase? Very common is the short answer. The first time it was used was in 1917 to help finance World War I and has happened more than 100 times since. In fact, every President back to Eisenhower has increased the debt ceiling, for a total of 89 times since 1959. President Biden has increased it twice already, which is the least number of times any President has increased it going back 11 Presidents.
  • What happens if the current debt ceiling isn’t increased? In theory the U.S. would default on their debt, meaning they’ve run out of money and can’t pay the bills. We do not expect this to happen, and it has only happened once in history, in 1979, but that was more of a clerical error and was fixed rather quickly. Janet Yellen recently said it needs to be increased or such a failure would lead to a “steep economic downturn” in the U.S.
  • Who else does it this way? The only two countries who have a debt ceiling and require the Government to vote on it and set the limits are the U.S. and Denmark. That’s it. Nearly all other countries set things as a percentage of their GDP. Why does this U.S. choose to do it this way? This one may be out of my paygrade, but I think it could have something to do with why we like our political theater here in the U.S.
  • When will the U.S. run out of money? This is known as the ‘X date’, when the U.S. will run out of money. No one knows this exact day, but Janet Yellen recently said it could be as early as June 1, well before when some of the well-known investment banks were forecasting. Sometime in June seems to be the most widely expected timeframe.
  • What options does Congress have? They could do nothing and potentially let the U.S. default, while they could also raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Another option is Congress can suspend the debt ceiling, something they did seven times since 2013, including as recently as August 2019 to July 2021. President Biden has invited the major members of Congress (Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, and Hakeem Jefferies) to the White House today (May 9) to discuss and find a resolution.
  • What about the makeup of Congress? Speaking of Congress, the debt ceiling has historically been increased whether we’ve had a Democratic, Republican or split Congress. Majority of the time, debt ceilings have been raised when Democrats have full control, though that’s because they were in the power majority of the time since 1959. Specifically, when we have a split Congress (like right now, with a Democratic Senate and Republican House), the debt ceiling has been increased 24 times. So, history says that a split Congress shouldn’t be an impediment to raising the ceiling yet again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
  • How likely is a deal? Sonu put together this great SWOT analysis of President Biden and Speaker McCarthy, with some help from Punchbowl News. The Carson Investment Research team’s base case remains that there’s a big disconnect between the two sides right now, but the opportunity is there for some dealing with a final deal before the clock strikes midnight after the final posturing. Ultimately, it’s in neither President Biden’s or Speaker McCarthy’s interest to see a default, and potential economic catastrophe, under their watch.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
  • What happens if they let the U.S. default? We’d like to stress this is not the base case and we fully expect cooler heads to prevail, but should the U.S. default on its debt (meaning they miss a bond payment to holders of Treasuries) the chances greatly increase of much higher interest rates, a likely recession, and extreme market volatility. Many investors remember back in the summer of 2011 when both sides had trouble agreeing on a new debt ceiling and S&P downgraded the debt on the U.S., causing nearly a 19% decline in the S&P 500 over the following week.
  • What do most of the experts think? Most political experts we follow expect the debt ceiling to be increased before X date, making it 90 increases since 1959. This is Washington after all and everyone has an agenda, but we don’t expect the current members of Congress want to be blamed should the U.S. default on its debt, causing a major drop in the stock market and potential recession right ahead of an election year.
So there you have it, 11 things to know about the current debt ceiling drama. We are a long way from a resolution and this will likely be all over the news the coming weeks, but in the end, we think the football will be punted once again.

Megacaps Still Carrying Their Weight

Heading into earnings season, there was a considerable amount of angst on the part of investors regarding the mecacap stocks and how they would react to their earnings reports. Given their outperformance in Q1, the prevailing view was that the bar was too high, leaving the megacaps susceptible to disappointment when they reported. Within the S&P 500, there are seven companies whose weighting exceeds 1.5% in the index, and in the chart below we list the performance of each company's stock (largest to smallest) on the earnings reaction day of their most recent report. Of the seven companies highlighted, only two (Alphabet and Amazon.com) declined in reaction to their reports. Two stocks (Nvidia and Meta) surged more than 10%, one (Microsoft) rallied more than 7%, and Apple, with its weighting of over 7%, managed to rise more than 4.5% following its report last week. There's still a ton of reports left to get through before earnings season winds down, but on a market cap basis, we're past the peak, and based on the reactions of the largest companies in the market, it's been a much better earnings season than most investors expected.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending May 12th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5/14/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($BABA $HD $WMT $MNDY $TGT $SE $BIDU $WKHS $AZUL $NU $CSCO $DE $TJX $AMAT $QBTS $CSIQ $ONON $JACK $FREY $CTLT $ARCO $TSEM $TRVN $INVO $SBLK $DLO $NOVN $AMPS $GBNH $PSFE $ZEV $FL $SQM $LSPD $WIX $STNE $DT $GRAB $TME $SNPS $MMYT $TTWO $GOOS $HCDI $LLAP $XWEL $IQ $BBWI $SOHU $CGAU)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]

2023.05.12 23:01 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023.

S&P 500 closes lower, notches a second week of losses, following disappointing consumer sentiment data: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 fell Friday as concerns around the U.S. economy and regional banks dampened investor sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 8.89 points lower, or 0.03%, to close at 33,300.62. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.35%, ending the day at 12,284.74. The S&P 500 slipped 0.16%, closing at 4,124.08.
A preliminary reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a six-month low of 57.7. Economists polled by the Dow Jones expected a May reading of 63.0. The survey also showed the outlook for inflation over the next 5 years climbed to 3.2%, tying the highest clip since June 2008.
Investors are also keeping an eye on Washington as concern around debt ceiling negotiations persisted. CNBC reported that a debt ceiling meeting between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders that was set for Friday was postponed to next week.
“None of the sectors are making convincing moves in either direction, reflecting a general lack of conviction in the market,” said Joe Cusick, portfolio specialist and senior vice president at Calamos Investments.
The S&P 500 and Dow fell for a second consecutive week, down 0.29% and 1.11%, respectively. The Nasdaq gained 0.4%.
Meanwhile in the world of regional banks, PacWest fell 2.9%. On Thursday, regional banks dropped after PacWest said its deposits fell sharply last week.
Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected wholesale prices data, a sign of easing inflation, failed to shield investors from ongoing concerns of a downturn ahead on Thursday — particularly as a handful of stocks continue to carry the market.
Import prices were 0.4% month-over-month in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, marking the first rise so far in 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a 0.3% rise last month, compared to the decline of 0.6% the prior month.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

May Monthly OpEx Week Weak - DJIA Down 12 of Last 14

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May’s monthly option expiration has been mixed over the longer-term since 1990. DJIA has been up eighteen of the last thirty-three May monthly expiration days with an average loss of 0.07%. Monthly OpEx week has a slight bearish bias with DJIA and S&P 500 down 18 and up 15.
More recently, DJIA has suffered declines in 12 of the last 14, monthly expiration weeks. S&P 500 has one additional weekly gain since 2009, down 11 of the last 14. NASDAQ has declined in 9 of the last 14. The week after has been best for S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
The week after options expiration is more bullish with S&P and NASDAQ up 11 of 14. Last year DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all gained over 6% in the week after.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

7 Questions About Regional Banks

There are so many questions that we get from our advisors and clients about the regional banking crisis, in addition to the debt ceiling (which Ryan covered in another blog). Here’re some answers to some of the common questions.

What is happening with regional banks?

The crisis erupted with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in early March. SVB hit the end of the road with a classic run on the bank, i.e. depositors rushing out the door, even as the bank’s asset values had deteriorated due to long-term bond holdings that lost value as interest rates surged over the past year. The FDIC eventually took over the insolvent bank, along with Signature Bank and First Republic (in late April). So regional banks have been under pressure over the past 2 months, as investors extrapolated some of the problems that plagued the three troubled banks to others.
Then last week saw renewed selling pressure on regional bank stocks. On May 4th, PacWest Bancorp fell 51.6% and Western Alliance Bancorp fell 41%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 7.2% just on that day. Now, as you can see in the chart below, there’s been quite a recovery since then, but prices are still down significantly since the crisis started. The KRE ETF is down almost 34.6% since March 8th, when the crisis started.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why are small bank stock prices still under pressure?

It helps to understand how a bank works. They make money by borrowing money from depositors (yes, when you put money in a bank, you’re lending money to it) and lending money to consumers and businesses. The difference between the interest rate they charge borrowers and the rate they pay depositors is their “net interest margin” (NIM), or profit. Right now, the fear is that profitability has reduced as banks, especially smaller ones, have to increase the rates they pay depositors to keep them from fleeing. However, what’s important to know is that reduced profitability is different from insolvency, which is what happened to the 3 banks that went under.

What’s different from SVB and some of these other regional banks?

The main problem for SVB was that more than 90% of their deposits were uninsured. When news spread that their assets were impaired, and they were looking to raise capital, these depositors fled as they were worried that they wouldn’t get their money back. We wrote about it in depth at the time.
In contrast, banks like PacWest and Western Alliance have a much smaller percent of deposits that are uninsured (about 25%) – making them potentially less prone to a run.

So why did the stock prices for these banks crash on May 4th?

As I wrote above, there doesn’t appear to be any fundamental solvency issues with these banks, other than perhaps reduced profitability. Instead, what happened last week was driven by stock market speculation. Case in point, short selling and put option activity on PacWest and Western Alliance surged recently. Put options allow investors to profit from lower stock prices. In this case, market makers and dealers who sold these positions were “long” stocks and had to hedge that by shorting. This pushed prices lower, and eventually led to dealers having to sell even more shares short, especially as investors bought even more puts.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Wait, is this something like the meme stock frenzy?

In a sense, yes. If you remember, back in early 2021 stock prices for meme stocks surged on speculative activity, particularly call option buying. Dealers who sold these options were essentially “short” the stock. So, they had to hedge to be directionally neutral, which they did by buying stock, pushing prices higher. And as the social media frenzy picked up, prices surged as dealers had to buy even more stock.
I made the following schematic to illustrate what happened with regional banks last week. Now historically bank runs have been triggered by news events, and that can potentially happen a lot quicker these days because of social media. Speculators were betting that the bank in trouble will see deposits flee, and eventually be taken over by the FDIC, an event that would wipe out shareholders and result in profits for investors betting on these bank stock prices crashing. The good news is that the negative feedback loop was broken pretty quickly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Could this be the canary in the coalmine, and can the crisis spread?

Never say never in the investment business. But one big sign that trouble is not spreading is that banks are not accessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) liquidity facilities to the extent they were a few weeks ago. Loans to banks via the Fed’s facilities are at the lowest level in 7 weeks. There are three pieces here: * Lending to FDIC depository institutions (yellow bar in the chart below) – These are loans extended to banks that were subsequently taken over by the FDIC, like SVB, Signature and First Republic. This increased in the latest data because First Republic was just taken over. * Discount window (dark blue bars) – Banks can use this to access liquidity in exchange for collateral (like US treasuries). It’s fallen from $153 billion to $5 billion over the last month, which is close to where it was before the SVB crisis. * Bank term funding program (green bar) – This is a new facility that the Fed set up in March after the SVB crisis. Banks can access liquidity here by exchanging securities at their full par value. This has dropped from a peak of $81 billion to $76 billion, which is a very positive sign.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another positive sign: the latest data from the Fed shows that deposits at small commercial banks in the US have stabilized over the past month. Deposits at these banks cratered over the two weeks after the SVB crisis, and the worry was that this would continue.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Will there be a broader economic impact, due to a credit crunch?

The latest Fed survey of loan officers from showed that banks tightened credit at the start of the second quarter. However, the net percent of survey respondents saying they tightened standards for commercial and industrial loans did not increase significantly, rising from 44.8% in January to 46% in April. But here’s the other side of that: 54% said that standards “remained basically unchanged”.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Make no mistake, credit standards have tightened over the past year. But that was already the case before the SVB crisis, and it really hasn’t had much of an impact on the economy as we saw from the recent GDP growth data for Q1.
Note that banks are still making loans. In fact, bank lending is up 8.5% over the past year – it was running at a pace of around 5% before the pandemic. Now a big part of that is due to inflation, as higher prices mean loans are larger. But bank lending doesn’t look to have completely collapsed.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Ultimately, what is important with respect to the current economic expansion (since 2020) is that this is NOT a credit driven cycle. This contrasts with the late 1980s, late 1990s and mid-2000s. During those periods, credit growth drove business and real estate investment, and consumer spending. Eventually, when losses on loans spread, credit was pulled back and the economy went into a recession.
Right now, economic growth is being driven by strong incomes, because of strong employment and wage growth. And so far, there’s no reason to believe that will not continue.

Stocks Love Day Before Mother’s Day Better

With just a few days until Mother’s Day, this is also a reminder. Always used to plant flowers with mom and pick the fresh blooming lilacs. Over the last 28 years on the Friday before Mother’s Day Dow has gained ground 19 times. On Monday after, DJIA has advanced 17 times. Average gain on Friday has been 0.26% and 0.23% on Monday. However, Monday following Mother’s Day has been down 8 of the last 11 years. In 2019, DJIA suffered its worst post Mother’s Day loss going back to 1995, off 2.38%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

11 Things To Know About The Debt Ceiling

“I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.”
– Will Rogers
One of the top questions we’ve received lately has to do with the impending debt ceiling drama and what it could all mean. Here are some common questions and answers regarding this excitement out of Washington.
  • What is the debt ceiling? Simply put, it is how much money our country has to pay the bills, authorized by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the Treasury. This is one of those weird ways in which government functions. Congress typically authorizes spending bills, which the President signs into law. Historically, this spending has exceeded government revenues, and Treasury issues debt to cover the deficit. However, there is a “ceiling” to how much total debt Treasury can incur. Congress typically has to pass a second bill authorizing the ceiling to move higher, so that Treasury can pay for spending that was already passed into law. Not raising the debt ceiling is akin to going to a restaurant, ordering and eating the food, and then walking out without paying the bill.
  • What is paid from this? Medicare and Social Security are two of the big ones. But tax refunds, military salaries and interest on national debt are also part of the current $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.
  • How common is a debt ceiling increase? Very common is the short answer. The first time it was used was in 1917 to help finance World War I and has happened more than 100 times since. In fact, every President back to Eisenhower has increased the debt ceiling, for a total of 89 times since 1959. President Biden has increased it twice already, which is the least number of times any President has increased it going back 11 Presidents.
  • What happens if the current debt ceiling isn’t increased? In theory the U.S. would default on their debt, meaning they’ve run out of money and can’t pay the bills. We do not expect this to happen, and it has only happened once in history, in 1979, but that was more of a clerical error and was fixed rather quickly. Janet Yellen recently said it needs to be increased or such a failure would lead to a “steep economic downturn” in the U.S.
  • Who else does it this way? The only two countries who have a debt ceiling and require the Government to vote on it and set the limits are the U.S. and Denmark. That’s it. Nearly all other countries set things as a percentage of their GDP. Why does this U.S. choose to do it this way? This one may be out of my paygrade, but I think it could have something to do with why we like our political theater here in the U.S.
  • When will the U.S. run out of money? This is known as the ‘X date’, when the U.S. will run out of money. No one knows this exact day, but Janet Yellen recently said it could be as early as June 1, well before when some of the well-known investment banks were forecasting. Sometime in June seems to be the most widely expected timeframe.
  • What options does Congress have? They could do nothing and potentially let the U.S. default, while they could also raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Another option is Congress can suspend the debt ceiling, something they did seven times since 2013, including as recently as August 2019 to July 2021. President Biden has invited the major members of Congress (Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, and Hakeem Jefferies) to the White House today (May 9) to discuss and find a resolution.
  • What about the makeup of Congress? Speaking of Congress, the debt ceiling has historically been increased whether we’ve had a Democratic, Republican or split Congress. Majority of the time, debt ceilings have been raised when Democrats have full control, though that’s because they were in the power majority of the time since 1959. Specifically, when we have a split Congress (like right now, with a Democratic Senate and Republican House), the debt ceiling has been increased 24 times. So, history says that a split Congress shouldn’t be an impediment to raising the ceiling yet again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
  • How likely is a deal? Sonu put together this great SWOT analysis of President Biden and Speaker McCarthy, with some help from Punchbowl News. The Carson Investment Research team’s base case remains that there’s a big disconnect between the two sides right now, but the opportunity is there for some dealing with a final deal before the clock strikes midnight after the final posturing. Ultimately, it’s in neither President Biden’s or Speaker McCarthy’s interest to see a default, and potential economic catastrophe, under their watch.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
  • What happens if they let the U.S. default? We’d like to stress this is not the base case and we fully expect cooler heads to prevail, but should the U.S. default on its debt (meaning they miss a bond payment to holders of Treasuries) the chances greatly increase of much higher interest rates, a likely recession, and extreme market volatility. Many investors remember back in the summer of 2011 when both sides had trouble agreeing on a new debt ceiling and S&P downgraded the debt on the U.S., causing nearly a 19% decline in the S&P 500 over the following week.
  • What do most of the experts think? Most political experts we follow expect the debt ceiling to be increased before X date, making it 90 increases since 1959. This is Washington after all and everyone has an agenda, but we don’t expect the current members of Congress want to be blamed should the U.S. default on its debt, causing a major drop in the stock market and potential recession right ahead of an election year.
So there you have it, 11 things to know about the current debt ceiling drama. We are a long way from a resolution and this will likely be all over the news the coming weeks, but in the end, we think the football will be punted once again.

Megacaps Still Carrying Their Weight

Heading into earnings season, there was a considerable amount of angst on the part of investors regarding the mecacap stocks and how they would react to their earnings reports. Given their outperformance in Q1, the prevailing view was that the bar was too high, leaving the megacaps susceptible to disappointment when they reported. Within the S&P 500, there are seven companies whose weighting exceeds 1.5% in the index, and in the chart below we list the performance of each company's stock (largest to smallest) on the earnings reaction day of their most recent report. Of the seven companies highlighted, only two (Alphabet and Amazon.com) declined in reaction to their reports. Two stocks (Nvidia and Meta) surged more than 10%, one (Microsoft) rallied more than 7%, and Apple, with its weighting of over 7%, managed to rise more than 4.5% following its report last week. There's still a ton of reports left to get through before earnings season winds down, but on a market cap basis, we're past the peak, and based on the reactions of the largest companies in the market, it's been a much better earnings season than most investors expected.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending May 12th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5/14/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($BABA $HD $WMT $MNDY $TGT $SE $BIDU $WKHS $AZUL $NU $CSCO $DE $TJX $AMAT $QBTS $CSIQ $ONON $JACK $FREY $CTLT $ARCO $TSEM $TRVN $INVO $SBLK $DLO $NOVN $AMPS $GBNH $PSFE $ZEV $FL $SQM $LSPD $WIX $STNE $DT $GRAB $TME $SNPS $MMYT $TTWO $GOOS $HCDI $LLAP $XWEL $IQ $BBWI $SOHU $CGAU)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]

2023.05.12 23:01 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023.

S&P 500 closes lower, notches a second week of losses, following disappointing consumer sentiment data: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 fell Friday as concerns around the U.S. economy and regional banks dampened investor sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 8.89 points lower, or 0.03%, to close at 33,300.62. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.35%, ending the day at 12,284.74. The S&P 500 slipped 0.16%, closing at 4,124.08.
A preliminary reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a six-month low of 57.7. Economists polled by the Dow Jones expected a May reading of 63.0. The survey also showed the outlook for inflation over the next 5 years climbed to 3.2%, tying the highest clip since June 2008.
Investors are also keeping an eye on Washington as concern around debt ceiling negotiations persisted. CNBC reported that a debt ceiling meeting between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders that was set for Friday was postponed to next week.
“None of the sectors are making convincing moves in either direction, reflecting a general lack of conviction in the market,” said Joe Cusick, portfolio specialist and senior vice president at Calamos Investments.
The S&P 500 and Dow fell for a second consecutive week, down 0.29% and 1.11%, respectively. The Nasdaq gained 0.4%.
Meanwhile in the world of regional banks, PacWest fell 2.9%. On Thursday, regional banks dropped after PacWest said its deposits fell sharply last week.
Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected wholesale prices data, a sign of easing inflation, failed to shield investors from ongoing concerns of a downturn ahead on Thursday — particularly as a handful of stocks continue to carry the market.
Import prices were 0.4% month-over-month in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, marking the first rise so far in 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a 0.3% rise last month, compared to the decline of 0.6% the prior month.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

May Monthly OpEx Week Weak - DJIA Down 12 of Last 14

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May’s monthly option expiration has been mixed over the longer-term since 1990. DJIA has been up eighteen of the last thirty-three May monthly expiration days with an average loss of 0.07%. Monthly OpEx week has a slight bearish bias with DJIA and S&P 500 down 18 and up 15.
More recently, DJIA has suffered declines in 12 of the last 14, monthly expiration weeks. S&P 500 has one additional weekly gain since 2009, down 11 of the last 14. NASDAQ has declined in 9 of the last 14. The week after has been best for S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
The week after options expiration is more bullish with S&P and NASDAQ up 11 of 14. Last year DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all gained over 6% in the week after.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

7 Questions About Regional Banks

There are so many questions that we get from our advisors and clients about the regional banking crisis, in addition to the debt ceiling (which Ryan covered in another blog). Here’re some answers to some of the common questions.

What is happening with regional banks?

The crisis erupted with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in early March. SVB hit the end of the road with a classic run on the bank, i.e. depositors rushing out the door, even as the bank’s asset values had deteriorated due to long-term bond holdings that lost value as interest rates surged over the past year. The FDIC eventually took over the insolvent bank, along with Signature Bank and First Republic (in late April). So regional banks have been under pressure over the past 2 months, as investors extrapolated some of the problems that plagued the three troubled banks to others.
Then last week saw renewed selling pressure on regional bank stocks. On May 4th, PacWest Bancorp fell 51.6% and Western Alliance Bancorp fell 41%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 7.2% just on that day. Now, as you can see in the chart below, there’s been quite a recovery since then, but prices are still down significantly since the crisis started. The KRE ETF is down almost 34.6% since March 8th, when the crisis started.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why are small bank stock prices still under pressure?

It helps to understand how a bank works. They make money by borrowing money from depositors (yes, when you put money in a bank, you’re lending money to it) and lending money to consumers and businesses. The difference between the interest rate they charge borrowers and the rate they pay depositors is their “net interest margin” (NIM), or profit. Right now, the fear is that profitability has reduced as banks, especially smaller ones, have to increase the rates they pay depositors to keep them from fleeing. However, what’s important to know is that reduced profitability is different from insolvency, which is what happened to the 3 banks that went under.

What’s different from SVB and some of these other regional banks?

The main problem for SVB was that more than 90% of their deposits were uninsured. When news spread that their assets were impaired, and they were looking to raise capital, these depositors fled as they were worried that they wouldn’t get their money back. We wrote about it in depth at the time.
In contrast, banks like PacWest and Western Alliance have a much smaller percent of deposits that are uninsured (about 25%) – making them potentially less prone to a run.

So why did the stock prices for these banks crash on May 4th?

As I wrote above, there doesn’t appear to be any fundamental solvency issues with these banks, other than perhaps reduced profitability. Instead, what happened last week was driven by stock market speculation. Case in point, short selling and put option activity on PacWest and Western Alliance surged recently. Put options allow investors to profit from lower stock prices. In this case, market makers and dealers who sold these positions were “long” stocks and had to hedge that by shorting. This pushed prices lower, and eventually led to dealers having to sell even more shares short, especially as investors bought even more puts.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Wait, is this something like the meme stock frenzy?

In a sense, yes. If you remember, back in early 2021 stock prices for meme stocks surged on speculative activity, particularly call option buying. Dealers who sold these options were essentially “short” the stock. So, they had to hedge to be directionally neutral, which they did by buying stock, pushing prices higher. And as the social media frenzy picked up, prices surged as dealers had to buy even more stock.
I made the following schematic to illustrate what happened with regional banks last week. Now historically bank runs have been triggered by news events, and that can potentially happen a lot quicker these days because of social media. Speculators were betting that the bank in trouble will see deposits flee, and eventually be taken over by the FDIC, an event that would wipe out shareholders and result in profits for investors betting on these bank stock prices crashing. The good news is that the negative feedback loop was broken pretty quickly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Could this be the canary in the coalmine, and can the crisis spread?

Never say never in the investment business. But one big sign that trouble is not spreading is that banks are not accessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) liquidity facilities to the extent they were a few weeks ago. Loans to banks via the Fed’s facilities are at the lowest level in 7 weeks. There are three pieces here: * Lending to FDIC depository institutions (yellow bar in the chart below) – These are loans extended to banks that were subsequently taken over by the FDIC, like SVB, Signature and First Republic. This increased in the latest data because First Republic was just taken over. * Discount window (dark blue bars) – Banks can use this to access liquidity in exchange for collateral (like US treasuries). It’s fallen from $153 billion to $5 billion over the last month, which is close to where it was before the SVB crisis. * Bank term funding program (green bar) – This is a new facility that the Fed set up in March after the SVB crisis. Banks can access liquidity here by exchanging securities at their full par value. This has dropped from a peak of $81 billion to $76 billion, which is a very positive sign.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another positive sign: the latest data from the Fed shows that deposits at small commercial banks in the US have stabilized over the past month. Deposits at these banks cratered over the two weeks after the SVB crisis, and the worry was that this would continue.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Will there be a broader economic impact, due to a credit crunch?

The latest Fed survey of loan officers from showed that banks tightened credit at the start of the second quarter. However, the net percent of survey respondents saying they tightened standards for commercial and industrial loans did not increase significantly, rising from 44.8% in January to 46% in April. But here’s the other side of that: 54% said that standards “remained basically unchanged”.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Make no mistake, credit standards have tightened over the past year. But that was already the case before the SVB crisis, and it really hasn’t had much of an impact on the economy as we saw from the recent GDP growth data for Q1.
Note that banks are still making loans. In fact, bank lending is up 8.5% over the past year – it was running at a pace of around 5% before the pandemic. Now a big part of that is due to inflation, as higher prices mean loans are larger. But bank lending doesn’t look to have completely collapsed.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Ultimately, what is important with respect to the current economic expansion (since 2020) is that this is NOT a credit driven cycle. This contrasts with the late 1980s, late 1990s and mid-2000s. During those periods, credit growth drove business and real estate investment, and consumer spending. Eventually, when losses on loans spread, credit was pulled back and the economy went into a recession.
Right now, economic growth is being driven by strong incomes, because of strong employment and wage growth. And so far, there’s no reason to believe that will not continue.

Stocks Love Day Before Mother’s Day Better

With just a few days until Mother’s Day, this is also a reminder. Always used to plant flowers with mom and pick the fresh blooming lilacs. Over the last 28 years on the Friday before Mother’s Day Dow has gained ground 19 times. On Monday after, DJIA has advanced 17 times. Average gain on Friday has been 0.26% and 0.23% on Monday. However, Monday following Mother’s Day has been down 8 of the last 11 years. In 2019, DJIA suffered its worst post Mother’s Day loss going back to 1995, off 2.38%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

11 Things To Know About The Debt Ceiling

“I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.”
– Will Rogers
One of the top questions we’ve received lately has to do with the impending debt ceiling drama and what it could all mean. Here are some common questions and answers regarding this excitement out of Washington.
  • What is the debt ceiling? Simply put, it is how much money our country has to pay the bills, authorized by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the Treasury. This is one of those weird ways in which government functions. Congress typically authorizes spending bills, which the President signs into law. Historically, this spending has exceeded government revenues, and Treasury issues debt to cover the deficit. However, there is a “ceiling” to how much total debt Treasury can incur. Congress typically has to pass a second bill authorizing the ceiling to move higher, so that Treasury can pay for spending that was already passed into law. Not raising the debt ceiling is akin to going to a restaurant, ordering and eating the food, and then walking out without paying the bill.
  • What is paid from this? Medicare and Social Security are two of the big ones. But tax refunds, military salaries and interest on national debt are also part of the current $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.
  • How common is a debt ceiling increase? Very common is the short answer. The first time it was used was in 1917 to help finance World War I and has happened more than 100 times since. In fact, every President back to Eisenhower has increased the debt ceiling, for a total of 89 times since 1959. President Biden has increased it twice already, which is the least number of times any President has increased it going back 11 Presidents.
  • What happens if the current debt ceiling isn’t increased? In theory the U.S. would default on their debt, meaning they’ve run out of money and can’t pay the bills. We do not expect this to happen, and it has only happened once in history, in 1979, but that was more of a clerical error and was fixed rather quickly. Janet Yellen recently said it needs to be increased or such a failure would lead to a “steep economic downturn” in the U.S.
  • Who else does it this way? The only two countries who have a debt ceiling and require the Government to vote on it and set the limits are the U.S. and Denmark. That’s it. Nearly all other countries set things as a percentage of their GDP. Why does this U.S. choose to do it this way? This one may be out of my paygrade, but I think it could have something to do with why we like our political theater here in the U.S.
  • When will the U.S. run out of money? This is known as the ‘X date’, when the U.S. will run out of money. No one knows this exact day, but Janet Yellen recently said it could be as early as June 1, well before when some of the well-known investment banks were forecasting. Sometime in June seems to be the most widely expected timeframe.
  • What options does Congress have? They could do nothing and potentially let the U.S. default, while they could also raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Another option is Congress can suspend the debt ceiling, something they did seven times since 2013, including as recently as August 2019 to July 2021. President Biden has invited the major members of Congress (Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, and Hakeem Jefferies) to the White House today (May 9) to discuss and find a resolution.
  • What about the makeup of Congress? Speaking of Congress, the debt ceiling has historically been increased whether we’ve had a Democratic, Republican or split Congress. Majority of the time, debt ceilings have been raised when Democrats have full control, though that’s because they were in the power majority of the time since 1959. Specifically, when we have a split Congress (like right now, with a Democratic Senate and Republican House), the debt ceiling has been increased 24 times. So, history says that a split Congress shouldn’t be an impediment to raising the ceiling yet again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
  • How likely is a deal? Sonu put together this great SWOT analysis of President Biden and Speaker McCarthy, with some help from Punchbowl News. The Carson Investment Research team’s base case remains that there’s a big disconnect between the two sides right now, but the opportunity is there for some dealing with a final deal before the clock strikes midnight after the final posturing. Ultimately, it’s in neither President Biden’s or Speaker McCarthy’s interest to see a default, and potential economic catastrophe, under their watch.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
  • What happens if they let the U.S. default? We’d like to stress this is not the base case and we fully expect cooler heads to prevail, but should the U.S. default on its debt (meaning they miss a bond payment to holders of Treasuries) the chances greatly increase of much higher interest rates, a likely recession, and extreme market volatility. Many investors remember back in the summer of 2011 when both sides had trouble agreeing on a new debt ceiling and S&P downgraded the debt on the U.S., causing nearly a 19% decline in the S&P 500 over the following week.
  • What do most of the experts think? Most political experts we follow expect the debt ceiling to be increased before X date, making it 90 increases since 1959. This is Washington after all and everyone has an agenda, but we don’t expect the current members of Congress want to be blamed should the U.S. default on its debt, causing a major drop in the stock market and potential recession right ahead of an election year.
So there you have it, 11 things to know about the current debt ceiling drama. We are a long way from a resolution and this will likely be all over the news the coming weeks, but in the end, we think the football will be punted once again.

Megacaps Still Carrying Their Weight

Heading into earnings season, there was a considerable amount of angst on the part of investors regarding the mecacap stocks and how they would react to their earnings reports. Given their outperformance in Q1, the prevailing view was that the bar was too high, leaving the megacaps susceptible to disappointment when they reported. Within the S&P 500, there are seven companies whose weighting exceeds 1.5% in the index, and in the chart below we list the performance of each company's stock (largest to smallest) on the earnings reaction day of their most recent report. Of the seven companies highlighted, only two (Alphabet and Amazon.com) declined in reaction to their reports. Two stocks (Nvidia and Meta) surged more than 10%, one (Microsoft) rallied more than 7%, and Apple, with its weighting of over 7%, managed to rise more than 4.5% following its report last week. There's still a ton of reports left to get through before earnings season winds down, but on a market cap basis, we're past the peak, and based on the reactions of the largest companies in the market, it's been a much better earnings season than most investors expected.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending May 12th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5/14/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($BABA $HD $WMT $MNDY $TGT $SE $BIDU $WKHS $AZUL $NU $CSCO $DE $TJX $AMAT $QBTS $CSIQ $ONON $JACK $FREY $CTLT $ARCO $TSEM $TRVN $INVO $SBLK $DLO $NOVN $AMPS $GBNH $PSFE $ZEV $FL $SQM $LSPD $WIX $STNE $DT $GRAB $TME $SNPS $MMYT $TTWO $GOOS $HCDI $LLAP $XWEL $IQ $BBWI $SOHU $CGAU)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]

2023.05.12 23:00 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023.

S&P 500 closes lower, notches a second week of losses, following disappointing consumer sentiment data: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 fell Friday as concerns around the U.S. economy and regional banks dampened investor sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 8.89 points lower, or 0.03%, to close at 33,300.62. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.35%, ending the day at 12,284.74. The S&P 500 slipped 0.16%, closing at 4,124.08.
A preliminary reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a six-month low of 57.7. Economists polled by the Dow Jones expected a May reading of 63.0. The survey also showed the outlook for inflation over the next 5 years climbed to 3.2%, tying the highest clip since June 2008.
Investors are also keeping an eye on Washington as concern around debt ceiling negotiations persisted. CNBC reported that a debt ceiling meeting between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders that was set for Friday was postponed to next week.
“None of the sectors are making convincing moves in either direction, reflecting a general lack of conviction in the market,” said Joe Cusick, portfolio specialist and senior vice president at Calamos Investments.
The S&P 500 and Dow fell for a second consecutive week, down 0.29% and 1.11%, respectively. The Nasdaq gained 0.4%.
Meanwhile in the world of regional banks, PacWest fell 2.9%. On Thursday, regional banks dropped after PacWest said its deposits fell sharply last week.
Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected wholesale prices data, a sign of easing inflation, failed to shield investors from ongoing concerns of a downturn ahead on Thursday — particularly as a handful of stocks continue to carry the market.
Import prices were 0.4% month-over-month in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, marking the first rise so far in 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a 0.3% rise last month, compared to the decline of 0.6% the prior month.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

May Monthly OpEx Week Weak - DJIA Down 12 of Last 14

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May’s monthly option expiration has been mixed over the longer-term since 1990. DJIA has been up eighteen of the last thirty-three May monthly expiration days with an average loss of 0.07%. Monthly OpEx week has a slight bearish bias with DJIA and S&P 500 down 18 and up 15.
More recently, DJIA has suffered declines in 12 of the last 14, monthly expiration weeks. S&P 500 has one additional weekly gain since 2009, down 11 of the last 14. NASDAQ has declined in 9 of the last 14. The week after has been best for S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
The week after options expiration is more bullish with S&P and NASDAQ up 11 of 14. Last year DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all gained over 6% in the week after.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

7 Questions About Regional Banks

There are so many questions that we get from our advisors and clients about the regional banking crisis, in addition to the debt ceiling (which Ryan covered in another blog). Here’re some answers to some of the common questions.

What is happening with regional banks?

The crisis erupted with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in early March. SVB hit the end of the road with a classic run on the bank, i.e. depositors rushing out the door, even as the bank’s asset values had deteriorated due to long-term bond holdings that lost value as interest rates surged over the past year. The FDIC eventually took over the insolvent bank, along with Signature Bank and First Republic (in late April). So regional banks have been under pressure over the past 2 months, as investors extrapolated some of the problems that plagued the three troubled banks to others.
Then last week saw renewed selling pressure on regional bank stocks. On May 4th, PacWest Bancorp fell 51.6% and Western Alliance Bancorp fell 41%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 7.2% just on that day. Now, as you can see in the chart below, there’s been quite a recovery since then, but prices are still down significantly since the crisis started. The KRE ETF is down almost 34.6% since March 8th, when the crisis started.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why are small bank stock prices still under pressure?

It helps to understand how a bank works. They make money by borrowing money from depositors (yes, when you put money in a bank, you’re lending money to it) and lending money to consumers and businesses. The difference between the interest rate they charge borrowers and the rate they pay depositors is their “net interest margin” (NIM), or profit. Right now, the fear is that profitability has reduced as banks, especially smaller ones, have to increase the rates they pay depositors to keep them from fleeing. However, what’s important to know is that reduced profitability is different from insolvency, which is what happened to the 3 banks that went under.

What’s different from SVB and some of these other regional banks?

The main problem for SVB was that more than 90% of their deposits were uninsured. When news spread that their assets were impaired, and they were looking to raise capital, these depositors fled as they were worried that they wouldn’t get their money back. We wrote about it in depth at the time.
In contrast, banks like PacWest and Western Alliance have a much smaller percent of deposits that are uninsured (about 25%) – making them potentially less prone to a run.

So why did the stock prices for these banks crash on May 4th?

As I wrote above, there doesn’t appear to be any fundamental solvency issues with these banks, other than perhaps reduced profitability. Instead, what happened last week was driven by stock market speculation. Case in point, short selling and put option activity on PacWest and Western Alliance surged recently. Put options allow investors to profit from lower stock prices. In this case, market makers and dealers who sold these positions were “long” stocks and had to hedge that by shorting. This pushed prices lower, and eventually led to dealers having to sell even more shares short, especially as investors bought even more puts.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Wait, is this something like the meme stock frenzy?

In a sense, yes. If you remember, back in early 2021 stock prices for meme stocks surged on speculative activity, particularly call option buying. Dealers who sold these options were essentially “short” the stock. So, they had to hedge to be directionally neutral, which they did by buying stock, pushing prices higher. And as the social media frenzy picked up, prices surged as dealers had to buy even more stock.
I made the following schematic to illustrate what happened with regional banks last week. Now historically bank runs have been triggered by news events, and that can potentially happen a lot quicker these days because of social media. Speculators were betting that the bank in trouble will see deposits flee, and eventually be taken over by the FDIC, an event that would wipe out shareholders and result in profits for investors betting on these bank stock prices crashing. The good news is that the negative feedback loop was broken pretty quickly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Could this be the canary in the coalmine, and can the crisis spread?

Never say never in the investment business. But one big sign that trouble is not spreading is that banks are not accessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) liquidity facilities to the extent they were a few weeks ago. Loans to banks via the Fed’s facilities are at the lowest level in 7 weeks. There are three pieces here: * Lending to FDIC depository institutions (yellow bar in the chart below) – These are loans extended to banks that were subsequently taken over by the FDIC, like SVB, Signature and First Republic. This increased in the latest data because First Republic was just taken over. * Discount window (dark blue bars) – Banks can use this to access liquidity in exchange for collateral (like US treasuries). It’s fallen from $153 billion to $5 billion over the last month, which is close to where it was before the SVB crisis. * Bank term funding program (green bar) – This is a new facility that the Fed set up in March after the SVB crisis. Banks can access liquidity here by exchanging securities at their full par value. This has dropped from a peak of $81 billion to $76 billion, which is a very positive sign.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another positive sign: the latest data from the Fed shows that deposits at small commercial banks in the US have stabilized over the past month. Deposits at these banks cratered over the two weeks after the SVB crisis, and the worry was that this would continue.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Will there be a broader economic impact, due to a credit crunch?

The latest Fed survey of loan officers from showed that banks tightened credit at the start of the second quarter. However, the net percent of survey respondents saying they tightened standards for commercial and industrial loans did not increase significantly, rising from 44.8% in January to 46% in April. But here’s the other side of that: 54% said that standards “remained basically unchanged”.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Make no mistake, credit standards have tightened over the past year. But that was already the case before the SVB crisis, and it really hasn’t had much of an impact on the economy as we saw from the recent GDP growth data for Q1.
Note that banks are still making loans. In fact, bank lending is up 8.5% over the past year – it was running at a pace of around 5% before the pandemic. Now a big part of that is due to inflation, as higher prices mean loans are larger. But bank lending doesn’t look to have completely collapsed.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Ultimately, what is important with respect to the current economic expansion (since 2020) is that this is NOT a credit driven cycle. This contrasts with the late 1980s, late 1990s and mid-2000s. During those periods, credit growth drove business and real estate investment, and consumer spending. Eventually, when losses on loans spread, credit was pulled back and the economy went into a recession.
Right now, economic growth is being driven by strong incomes, because of strong employment and wage growth. And so far, there’s no reason to believe that will not continue.

Stocks Love Day Before Mother’s Day Better

With just a few days until Mother’s Day, this is also a reminder. Always used to plant flowers with mom and pick the fresh blooming lilacs. Over the last 28 years on the Friday before Mother’s Day Dow has gained ground 19 times. On Monday after, DJIA has advanced 17 times. Average gain on Friday has been 0.26% and 0.23% on Monday. However, Monday following Mother’s Day has been down 8 of the last 11 years. In 2019, DJIA suffered its worst post Mother’s Day loss going back to 1995, off 2.38%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

11 Things To Know About The Debt Ceiling

“I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.”
– Will Rogers
One of the top questions we’ve received lately has to do with the impending debt ceiling drama and what it could all mean. Here are some common questions and answers regarding this excitement out of Washington.
  • What is the debt ceiling? Simply put, it is how much money our country has to pay the bills, authorized by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the Treasury. This is one of those weird ways in which government functions. Congress typically authorizes spending bills, which the President signs into law. Historically, this spending has exceeded government revenues, and Treasury issues debt to cover the deficit. However, there is a “ceiling” to how much total debt Treasury can incur. Congress typically has to pass a second bill authorizing the ceiling to move higher, so that Treasury can pay for spending that was already passed into law. Not raising the debt ceiling is akin to going to a restaurant, ordering and eating the food, and then walking out without paying the bill.
  • What is paid from this? Medicare and Social Security are two of the big ones. But tax refunds, military salaries and interest on national debt are also part of the current $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.
  • How common is a debt ceiling increase? Very common is the short answer. The first time it was used was in 1917 to help finance World War I and has happened more than 100 times since. In fact, every President back to Eisenhower has increased the debt ceiling, for a total of 89 times since 1959. President Biden has increased it twice already, which is the least number of times any President has increased it going back 11 Presidents.
  • What happens if the current debt ceiling isn’t increased? In theory the U.S. would default on their debt, meaning they’ve run out of money and can’t pay the bills. We do not expect this to happen, and it has only happened once in history, in 1979, but that was more of a clerical error and was fixed rather quickly. Janet Yellen recently said it needs to be increased or such a failure would lead to a “steep economic downturn” in the U.S.
  • Who else does it this way? The only two countries who have a debt ceiling and require the Government to vote on it and set the limits are the U.S. and Denmark. That’s it. Nearly all other countries set things as a percentage of their GDP. Why does this U.S. choose to do it this way? This one may be out of my paygrade, but I think it could have something to do with why we like our political theater here in the U.S.
  • When will the U.S. run out of money? This is known as the ‘X date’, when the U.S. will run out of money. No one knows this exact day, but Janet Yellen recently said it could be as early as June 1, well before when some of the well-known investment banks were forecasting. Sometime in June seems to be the most widely expected timeframe.
  • What options does Congress have? They could do nothing and potentially let the U.S. default, while they could also raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Another option is Congress can suspend the debt ceiling, something they did seven times since 2013, including as recently as August 2019 to July 2021. President Biden has invited the major members of Congress (Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, and Hakeem Jefferies) to the White House today (May 9) to discuss and find a resolution.
  • What about the makeup of Congress? Speaking of Congress, the debt ceiling has historically been increased whether we’ve had a Democratic, Republican or split Congress. Majority of the time, debt ceilings have been raised when Democrats have full control, though that’s because they were in the power majority of the time since 1959. Specifically, when we have a split Congress (like right now, with a Democratic Senate and Republican House), the debt ceiling has been increased 24 times. So, history says that a split Congress shouldn’t be an impediment to raising the ceiling yet again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
  • How likely is a deal? Sonu put together this great SWOT analysis of President Biden and Speaker McCarthy, with some help from Punchbowl News. The Carson Investment Research team’s base case remains that there’s a big disconnect between the two sides right now, but the opportunity is there for some dealing with a final deal before the clock strikes midnight after the final posturing. Ultimately, it’s in neither President Biden’s or Speaker McCarthy’s interest to see a default, and potential economic catastrophe, under their watch.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
  • What happens if they let the U.S. default? We’d like to stress this is not the base case and we fully expect cooler heads to prevail, but should the U.S. default on its debt (meaning they miss a bond payment to holders of Treasuries) the chances greatly increase of much higher interest rates, a likely recession, and extreme market volatility. Many investors remember back in the summer of 2011 when both sides had trouble agreeing on a new debt ceiling and S&P downgraded the debt on the U.S., causing nearly a 19% decline in the S&P 500 over the following week.
  • What do most of the experts think? Most political experts we follow expect the debt ceiling to be increased before X date, making it 90 increases since 1959. This is Washington after all and everyone has an agenda, but we don’t expect the current members of Congress want to be blamed should the U.S. default on its debt, causing a major drop in the stock market and potential recession right ahead of an election year.
So there you have it, 11 things to know about the current debt ceiling drama. We are a long way from a resolution and this will likely be all over the news the coming weeks, but in the end, we think the football will be punted once again.

Megacaps Still Carrying Their Weight

Heading into earnings season, there was a considerable amount of angst on the part of investors regarding the mecacap stocks and how they would react to their earnings reports. Given their outperformance in Q1, the prevailing view was that the bar was too high, leaving the megacaps susceptible to disappointment when they reported. Within the S&P 500, there are seven companies whose weighting exceeds 1.5% in the index, and in the chart below we list the performance of each company's stock (largest to smallest) on the earnings reaction day of their most recent report. Of the seven companies highlighted, only two (Alphabet and Amazon.com) declined in reaction to their reports. Two stocks (Nvidia and Meta) surged more than 10%, one (Microsoft) rallied more than 7%, and Apple, with its weighting of over 7%, managed to rise more than 4.5% following its report last week. There's still a ton of reports left to get through before earnings season winds down, but on a market cap basis, we're past the peak, and based on the reactions of the largest companies in the market, it's been a much better earnings season than most investors expected.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending May 12th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5/14/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($BABA $HD $WMT $MNDY $TGT $SE $BIDU $WKHS $AZUL $NU $CSCO $DE $TJX $AMAT $QBTS $CSIQ $ONON $JACK $FREY $CTLT $ARCO $TSEM $TRVN $INVO $SBLK $DLO $NOVN $AMPS $GBNH $PSFE $ZEV $FL $SQM $LSPD $WIX $STNE $DT $GRAB $TME $SNPS $MMYT $TTWO $GOOS $HCDI $LLAP $XWEL $IQ $BBWI $SOHU $CGAU)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]

2023.05.12 22:57 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning May 15th, 2023.

S&P 500 closes lower, notches a second week of losses, following disappointing consumer sentiment data: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 fell Friday as concerns around the U.S. economy and regional banks dampened investor sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 8.89 points lower, or 0.03%, to close at 33,300.62. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.35%, ending the day at 12,284.74. The S&P 500 slipped 0.16%, closing at 4,124.08.
A preliminary reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a six-month low of 57.7. Economists polled by the Dow Jones expected a May reading of 63.0. The survey also showed the outlook for inflation over the next 5 years climbed to 3.2%, tying the highest clip since June 2008.
Investors are also keeping an eye on Washington as concern around debt ceiling negotiations persisted. CNBC reported that a debt ceiling meeting between President Joe Biden and congressional leaders that was set for Friday was postponed to next week.
“None of the sectors are making convincing moves in either direction, reflecting a general lack of conviction in the market,” said Joe Cusick, portfolio specialist and senior vice president at Calamos Investments.
The S&P 500 and Dow fell for a second consecutive week, down 0.29% and 1.11%, respectively. The Nasdaq gained 0.4%.
Meanwhile in the world of regional banks, PacWest fell 2.9%. On Thursday, regional banks dropped after PacWest said its deposits fell sharply last week.
Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected wholesale prices data, a sign of easing inflation, failed to shield investors from ongoing concerns of a downturn ahead on Thursday — particularly as a handful of stocks continue to carry the market.
Import prices were 0.4% month-over-month in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, marking the first rise so far in 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting a 0.3% rise last month, compared to the decline of 0.6% the prior month.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

May Monthly OpEx Week Weak - DJIA Down 12 of Last 14

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May’s monthly option expiration has been mixed over the longer-term since 1990. DJIA has been up eighteen of the last thirty-three May monthly expiration days with an average loss of 0.07%. Monthly OpEx week has a slight bearish bias with DJIA and S&P 500 down 18 and up 15.
More recently, DJIA has suffered declines in 12 of the last 14, monthly expiration weeks. S&P 500 has one additional weekly gain since 2009, down 11 of the last 14. NASDAQ has declined in 9 of the last 14. The week after has been best for S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
The week after options expiration is more bullish with S&P and NASDAQ up 11 of 14. Last year DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all gained over 6% in the week after.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

7 Questions About Regional Banks

There are so many questions that we get from our advisors and clients about the regional banking crisis, in addition to the debt ceiling (which Ryan covered in another blog). Here’re some answers to some of the common questions.

What is happening with regional banks?

The crisis erupted with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in early March. SVB hit the end of the road with a classic run on the bank, i.e. depositors rushing out the door, even as the bank’s asset values had deteriorated due to long-term bond holdings that lost value as interest rates surged over the past year. The FDIC eventually took over the insolvent bank, along with Signature Bank and First Republic (in late April). So regional banks have been under pressure over the past 2 months, as investors extrapolated some of the problems that plagued the three troubled banks to others.
Then last week saw renewed selling pressure on regional bank stocks. On May 4th, PacWest Bancorp fell 51.6% and Western Alliance Bancorp fell 41%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) fell 7.2% just on that day. Now, as you can see in the chart below, there’s been quite a recovery since then, but prices are still down significantly since the crisis started. The KRE ETF is down almost 34.6% since March 8th, when the crisis started.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Why are small bank stock prices still under pressure?

It helps to understand how a bank works. They make money by borrowing money from depositors (yes, when you put money in a bank, you’re lending money to it) and lending money to consumers and businesses. The difference between the interest rate they charge borrowers and the rate they pay depositors is their “net interest margin” (NIM), or profit. Right now, the fear is that profitability has reduced as banks, especially smaller ones, have to increase the rates they pay depositors to keep them from fleeing. However, what’s important to know is that reduced profitability is different from insolvency, which is what happened to the 3 banks that went under.

What’s different from SVB and some of these other regional banks?

The main problem for SVB was that more than 90% of their deposits were uninsured. When news spread that their assets were impaired, and they were looking to raise capital, these depositors fled as they were worried that they wouldn’t get their money back. We wrote about it in depth at the time.
In contrast, banks like PacWest and Western Alliance have a much smaller percent of deposits that are uninsured (about 25%) – making them potentially less prone to a run.

So why did the stock prices for these banks crash on May 4th?

As I wrote above, there doesn’t appear to be any fundamental solvency issues with these banks, other than perhaps reduced profitability. Instead, what happened last week was driven by stock market speculation. Case in point, short selling and put option activity on PacWest and Western Alliance surged recently. Put options allow investors to profit from lower stock prices. In this case, market makers and dealers who sold these positions were “long” stocks and had to hedge that by shorting. This pushed prices lower, and eventually led to dealers having to sell even more shares short, especially as investors bought even more puts.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Wait, is this something like the meme stock frenzy?

In a sense, yes. If you remember, back in early 2021 stock prices for meme stocks surged on speculative activity, particularly call option buying. Dealers who sold these options were essentially “short” the stock. So, they had to hedge to be directionally neutral, which they did by buying stock, pushing prices higher. And as the social media frenzy picked up, prices surged as dealers had to buy even more stock.
I made the following schematic to illustrate what happened with regional banks last week. Now historically bank runs have been triggered by news events, and that can potentially happen a lot quicker these days because of social media. Speculators were betting that the bank in trouble will see deposits flee, and eventually be taken over by the FDIC, an event that would wipe out shareholders and result in profits for investors betting on these bank stock prices crashing. The good news is that the negative feedback loop was broken pretty quickly.
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Could this be the canary in the coalmine, and can the crisis spread?

Never say never in the investment business. But one big sign that trouble is not spreading is that banks are not accessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) liquidity facilities to the extent they were a few weeks ago. Loans to banks via the Fed’s facilities are at the lowest level in 7 weeks. There are three pieces here: * Lending to FDIC depository institutions (yellow bar in the chart below) – These are loans extended to banks that were subsequently taken over by the FDIC, like SVB, Signature and First Republic. This increased in the latest data because First Republic was just taken over. * Discount window (dark blue bars) – Banks can use this to access liquidity in exchange for collateral (like US treasuries). It’s fallen from $153 billion to $5 billion over the last month, which is close to where it was before the SVB crisis. * Bank term funding program (green bar) – This is a new facility that the Fed set up in March after the SVB crisis. Banks can access liquidity here by exchanging securities at their full par value. This has dropped from a peak of $81 billion to $76 billion, which is a very positive sign.
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Another positive sign: the latest data from the Fed shows that deposits at small commercial banks in the US have stabilized over the past month. Deposits at these banks cratered over the two weeks after the SVB crisis, and the worry was that this would continue.
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Will there be a broader economic impact, due to a credit crunch?

The latest Fed survey of loan officers from showed that banks tightened credit at the start of the second quarter. However, the net percent of survey respondents saying they tightened standards for commercial and industrial loans did not increase significantly, rising from 44.8% in January to 46% in April. But here’s the other side of that: 54% said that standards “remained basically unchanged”.
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Make no mistake, credit standards have tightened over the past year. But that was already the case before the SVB crisis, and it really hasn’t had much of an impact on the economy as we saw from the recent GDP growth data for Q1.
Note that banks are still making loans. In fact, bank lending is up 8.5% over the past year – it was running at a pace of around 5% before the pandemic. Now a big part of that is due to inflation, as higher prices mean loans are larger. But bank lending doesn’t look to have completely collapsed.
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Ultimately, what is important with respect to the current economic expansion (since 2020) is that this is NOT a credit driven cycle. This contrasts with the late 1980s, late 1990s and mid-2000s. During those periods, credit growth drove business and real estate investment, and consumer spending. Eventually, when losses on loans spread, credit was pulled back and the economy went into a recession.
Right now, economic growth is being driven by strong incomes, because of strong employment and wage growth. And so far, there’s no reason to believe that will not continue.

Stocks Love Day Before Mother’s Day Better

With just a few days until Mother’s Day, this is also a reminder. Always used to plant flowers with mom and pick the fresh blooming lilacs. Over the last 28 years on the Friday before Mother’s Day Dow has gained ground 19 times. On Monday after, DJIA has advanced 17 times. Average gain on Friday has been 0.26% and 0.23% on Monday. However, Monday following Mother’s Day has been down 8 of the last 11 years. In 2019, DJIA suffered its worst post Mother’s Day loss going back to 1995, off 2.38%.
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11 Things To Know About The Debt Ceiling

“I don’t make jokes. I just watch the government and report the facts.”
– Will Rogers
One of the top questions we’ve received lately has to do with the impending debt ceiling drama and what it could all mean. Here are some common questions and answers regarding this excitement out of Washington.
  • What is the debt ceiling? Simply put, it is how much money our country has to pay the bills, authorized by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the Treasury. This is one of those weird ways in which government functions. Congress typically authorizes spending bills, which the President signs into law. Historically, this spending has exceeded government revenues, and Treasury issues debt to cover the deficit. However, there is a “ceiling” to how much total debt Treasury can incur. Congress typically has to pass a second bill authorizing the ceiling to move higher, so that Treasury can pay for spending that was already passed into law. Not raising the debt ceiling is akin to going to a restaurant, ordering and eating the food, and then walking out without paying the bill.
  • What is paid from this? Medicare and Social Security are two of the big ones. But tax refunds, military salaries and interest on national debt are also part of the current $31.4 trillion debt ceiling.
  • How common is a debt ceiling increase? Very common is the short answer. The first time it was used was in 1917 to help finance World War I and has happened more than 100 times since. In fact, every President back to Eisenhower has increased the debt ceiling, for a total of 89 times since 1959. President Biden has increased it twice already, which is the least number of times any President has increased it going back 11 Presidents.
  • What happens if the current debt ceiling isn’t increased? In theory the U.S. would default on their debt, meaning they’ve run out of money and can’t pay the bills. We do not expect this to happen, and it has only happened once in history, in 1979, but that was more of a clerical error and was fixed rather quickly. Janet Yellen recently said it needs to be increased or such a failure would lead to a “steep economic downturn” in the U.S.
  • Who else does it this way? The only two countries who have a debt ceiling and require the Government to vote on it and set the limits are the U.S. and Denmark. That’s it. Nearly all other countries set things as a percentage of their GDP. Why does this U.S. choose to do it this way? This one may be out of my paygrade, but I think it could have something to do with why we like our political theater here in the U.S.
  • When will the U.S. run out of money? This is known as the ‘X date’, when the U.S. will run out of money. No one knows this exact day, but Janet Yellen recently said it could be as early as June 1, well before when some of the well-known investment banks were forecasting. Sometime in June seems to be the most widely expected timeframe.
  • What options does Congress have? They could do nothing and potentially let the U.S. default, while they could also raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. Another option is Congress can suspend the debt ceiling, something they did seven times since 2013, including as recently as August 2019 to July 2021. President Biden has invited the major members of Congress (Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, and Hakeem Jefferies) to the White House today (May 9) to discuss and find a resolution.
  • What about the makeup of Congress? Speaking of Congress, the debt ceiling has historically been increased whether we’ve had a Democratic, Republican or split Congress. Majority of the time, debt ceilings have been raised when Democrats have full control, though that’s because they were in the power majority of the time since 1959. Specifically, when we have a split Congress (like right now, with a Democratic Senate and Republican House), the debt ceiling has been increased 24 times. So, history says that a split Congress shouldn’t be an impediment to raising the ceiling yet again.
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  • How likely is a deal? Sonu put together this great SWOT analysis of President Biden and Speaker McCarthy, with some help from Punchbowl News. The Carson Investment Research team’s base case remains that there’s a big disconnect between the two sides right now, but the opportunity is there for some dealing with a final deal before the clock strikes midnight after the final posturing. Ultimately, it’s in neither President Biden’s or Speaker McCarthy’s interest to see a default, and potential economic catastrophe, under their watch.
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  • What happens if they let the U.S. default? We’d like to stress this is not the base case and we fully expect cooler heads to prevail, but should the U.S. default on its debt (meaning they miss a bond payment to holders of Treasuries) the chances greatly increase of much higher interest rates, a likely recession, and extreme market volatility. Many investors remember back in the summer of 2011 when both sides had trouble agreeing on a new debt ceiling and S&P downgraded the debt on the U.S., causing nearly a 19% decline in the S&P 500 over the following week.
  • What do most of the experts think? Most political experts we follow expect the debt ceiling to be increased before X date, making it 90 increases since 1959. This is Washington after all and everyone has an agenda, but we don’t expect the current members of Congress want to be blamed should the U.S. default on its debt, causing a major drop in the stock market and potential recession right ahead of an election year.
So there you have it, 11 things to know about the current debt ceiling drama. We are a long way from a resolution and this will likely be all over the news the coming weeks, but in the end, we think the football will be punted once again.

Megacaps Still Carrying Their Weight

Heading into earnings season, there was a considerable amount of angst on the part of investors regarding the mecacap stocks and how they would react to their earnings reports. Given their outperformance in Q1, the prevailing view was that the bar was too high, leaving the megacaps susceptible to disappointment when they reported. Within the S&P 500, there are seven companies whose weighting exceeds 1.5% in the index, and in the chart below we list the performance of each company's stock (largest to smallest) on the earnings reaction day of their most recent report. Of the seven companies highlighted, only two (Alphabet and Amazon.com) declined in reaction to their reports. Two stocks (Nvidia and Meta) surged more than 10%, one (Microsoft) rallied more than 7%, and Apple, with its weighting of over 7%, managed to rise more than 4.5% following its report last week. There's still a ton of reports left to get through before earnings season winds down, but on a market cap basis, we're past the peak, and based on the reactions of the largest companies in the market, it's been a much better earnings season than most investors expected.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending May 12th, 2023

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5/14/23

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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($BABA $HD $WMT $MNDY $TGT $SE $BIDU $WKHS $AZUL $NU $CSCO $DE $TJX $AMAT $QBTS $CSIQ $ONON $JACK $FREY $CTLT $ARCO $TSEM $TRVN $INVO $SBLK $DLO $NOVN $AMPS $GBNH $PSFE $ZEV $FL $SQM $LSPD $WIX $STNE $DT $GRAB $TME $SNPS $MMYT $TTWO $GOOS $HCDI $LLAP $XWEL $IQ $BBWI $SOHU $CGAU)
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(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
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2023.05.12 03:13 jgrew030 Hospital Bookcart

Hospital Bookcart
Hospital book cart - books generously donated by staff and patients.
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2023.05.09 22:34 OhThatYoGirl Possible offseason moves and targets

"As of now, the Cavaliers project to be an over-the-cap team with the $12.2 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception and $4.5 million bi-annual exception available. One path they could take this offseason is utilizing both exceptions and re-signing Caris LeVert. This could serve as a fallback plan if nothing better materializes since they could accomplish all this while staying under the tax.
Some players they could realistically target with the MLE are role players such as Josh Richardson, Jalen McDaniels, and Kelly Oubre. They could also try to trade for a forward with the MLE since the new CBA allows it to be used as a trade exception. Some players they could target via trade include Royce O’Neale, Reggie Bullock, and Alec Burks.
The Cavaliers could go after a bigger name if they pursue the cap space route. They could get to around $24 million in space if they waive Cedi Osman’s non-guaranteed $6.7 million salary and dump the salaries of Isaac Okoro and Ricky Rubio via trades." - Hoopshype
I know some of you are a little more savvy with the CBA than I am. I'm wondering if we could potentially waive Cedi, trade Rubio and then offer Naz Reid the full non-taxpayer mid lvl exception and still have money to go after Bullock, O'Neal, or Josh Richardson. THEN re-sign Levert. Think this will round out our team pretty well. Not sure if we also have to renounce Caris bird rights to help clear those 24 million.
​
PG: DG the PG
SG: Don
SF: FA signing
PF: Mobley
C: Allen
Bench: Caris, Reid, Okoro and a bunch of vet minimums to fill out roster.
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