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Saks Fifth Avenue Deals & Offers in June 2023
2023.06.10 13:07 broccolioctavenet Saks Fifth Avenue Deals & Offers in June 2023
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2023.06.10 10:51 Far-Ad9864 Gossip girl makes me wanna shop at Sak's fifth avenue but I know that one dress from there will be my entire mortage. any other gossip girl viewers been influenced to shop at Sak's
some of the clothes at Sak's are very hard to dupe at other stores because they are just that uniquely made. I was looking at some dresses and shoes on saks and i was stunned at how unique they are. at least when you walk down the street you won't see 600 other people wearing the same thing you are.
I might make the splurge one day because I just really wanna have a unique dress from there and feel like blair for once lmao. They are the perfect dresses for weddings, bridal parties, nights out etc.. because they are so unqiue and expensive you probably won't find anyone else wearing the same thing as you
submitted by Far-Ad9864 to GossipGirl [link] [comments]
I might make the splurge one day because I just really wanna have a unique dress from there and feel like blair for once lmao. They are the perfect dresses for weddings, bridal parties, nights out etc.. because they are so unqiue and expensive you probably won't find anyone else wearing the same thing as you
2023.06.10 08:54 gymnasticsdonut Saks Fifth Avenue Discount Code for June 2023
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2023.06.10 04:27 MrPoliSciGuy The Roma Rebuild - Vol. 5
Hi all,
It's about that time again! For the fifth year in a row, here is my (unsolicited) overview of Roma's squad, current mercato, potential signings, and loan dealings.
Every year I try to give these a theme - last year, the name of the game was versatility: getting players who could cover multiple roles as we had a severely reduced squad due to FFP rules. We saw exactly how that came to bite us both in the league - where we were LITERALLY playing the kids to give the first teamers a break - and in the EL Final, where forced substitutions left us going into Penalties with no designated penalty takers.
With no expectation of squad reductions this season, the name of the game for this exercise is depth - our first team is good, VERY good even, but the question is "what options do we have on the bench or in rotation that can keep that level of quality?" and the answer this season due to injuries (Wijnaldum, Kumbulla), transfers and personal issues (Zaniolo, Karsdorp), or registration issues (Solbakken) has been categorically no. Simply put, it is not fair to put the weight of expectation on Benjamin Tahirovic (who is too young to purchase Alcohol in the United States) because our midfield of Matic and Cristante cannot play every game. Pair that with the long term injuries to Kumbulla and Abraham - both of whom will not be back until 2024 - and we need bodies, plain and simple.
Our current FFP situation also means that we will likely need to end this mercato in the black - which means relying on free transfers, loans, and spending money VERY judiciously.
Houssam Aouar: Aouar is a gamble in my honest opinion. A few years ago, this man was the Robin to Nabil Fekir’s Batman, and while I don’t think either of those players has had the career they had hoped to have, on his day this man can be unplayable. Emphasis on the “on his day”. On good days, Aouar has Jordan Veretout’s work ethic, and Jeremy Menez’s feet. On bad days, he has Veretout’s feet and Menez’s work ethic.
On the positive though, he can play (like Pellegrini) both in the center midfield as an 8, or more attacking as a 10. This can give us options off the bench to either rotate or change a game as necessary.
Evan Ndicka: Now this one I’m very happy about. Ndicka is left footed, very physical, but very intelligent as well which means he has a good eye for a pass as needed. He reminds me quite a bit of Antonio Rudiger in that he fits a very similar profile and played for a Bundesliga club at a similar level. I have no reservations - I think he will be a hit, but like Aouar will benefit tremendously from a full pre-season.
Goalkeepers
Pietro Boer - Let’s start with the easy one: Boer is a third choice keeper that is home-grown at club. Useful for registration, costs us peanuts, has never complained. Keep.
Rui Patricio - From the easy to the hard one: Rui’s decline this season has been sharp, but consistent. His great saves remind us that, once upon a time, that’s a solid goalkeeper, but that has been paired with just… odd mistakes - not Robin Olsen bad, but pretty bad nonetheless. This is no longer a starting International Goalkeeper (that honor goes to Diogo Costa nowadays). He would still make an excellent second-choice goalkeeper at a top club - which might be a good selling point as he still has admirers in the Premier League. Sell.
Mile Svilar - I really wanted to love Svilar. Football Manager Stans rise up, because ALL of us have signed Svilar at one point or another. Svilar still strikes me as potentially a very good keeper, but he has been unable to dislodge Patricio from that starting berth. I think he will end up staying around, and I hope he can prove himself to everyone in a starting role next season. Keep.
Defenders
Gianluca Mancini - We start with Mancini because as of right now, he is the only defender that looks certain to stay. He is definitely the second coming of Materazzi in temperament… if not in talent just yet. He still as a few years on his contract, Mourinho likes him a lot, and he provides leadership on and off the pitch. Keep.
Chris Smalling - While Smalling has been our best player (not just defender) at quite a few points this season, I am always concerned about long-term performance with him. I think he should be renewed - his play has merited that - but if I said “leader at the back, wins everything in the air, incredibly useful on set pieces” I haven’t just described Smalling… I’m also describing one Federico Fazio. Players like Fazio and Smalling are incredibly reliant on their physical attributes - but that physicality at older ages is one major injury away from disappearing completely. Renew him - but no more than two years. Keep.
Marash Kumbulla - Ah, the anti-Smalling. If Chris Smalling’s play has merited him to receive a contract renewal, Kumbulla’s definitely has not. However, due to his ACL injury, Marash is staying for another season in Rome… even if he probably shouldn’t. Keep.
Roger Ibañez - Now comes the other shoe. Roma needs to raise 30 million euros by the end of June to comply with their FFP agreement with Uefa. Failure to do so will likely hamstring us again in the coming Europa League, especially without Champions League money. With Abraham’s injury, and Ndicka a done deal, the clearest place to monetize in the squad is with Roger Ibañez. Our relationship with Roger has been a love-hate one, where we love his grinta and his ability to score in crucial moments, but his brain-farts have cost us on the pitch… repeatedly. Sell.
Full-Backs
Rick Karsdorp - It’s unclear what Karsdorp’s situation with the manager is. On the one hand, Karsdorp was reintegrated into the squad after his falling out with Mourinho and did continue to play, but how much of that was convenience and a “wait until the summer” mentality rather than anything truly genuine. Karsdorp is also currently recovering from an injury, which he should be fit from before September. He has a contract until 2025 - I’d consider him out the door should we receive a good offer… but I doubt we will. Keep.
Zeki Celik - I think it speaks volumes that Mourinho at times has preferred to play Spinazzola or Zalewski on the wrong side rather that give Celik the start. I don’t know if this has been due to poor form, injuries, or simply needing another season to “gel”. Regardless, I don’t think selling Celik at this point will accomplish anything. Keep.
Matias Viña - Remember him? Bournemouth has not exercised their option, so Viña is returning to home base. Unlike other loan moves, however, his time with the Cherries was fairly solid - including an outrageous goal against Chelsea. Why he’s not being renewed, I’m not sure but the Premier League exposure definitely helped us if we choose to cash in. The question is… should we? We are crying out for depth and Viña is a textbook “depth” option. I think we should approach this like Karsdorp - if we get an offer, consider it, otherwise Keep.
Leonardo Spinazzola - On paper, this is our best fullback. In practice, all of us know that the best ability is availability and Leonardo has just… not been there when needed. He is also - critically - the wrong side of 30, which in this position can cost you that turn of pace that is needed. I think, like Ibañez, this is a player we should cash in on now, especially as he enters his final year of contract. Sell.
Nicola Zalewski - Fortunately, this one is easy: Nicola has the distinction of being both young and home-grown, takes no space in registration, and Mourinho loves him. Keep.
Midfielders
Nemanja Matic - Boy was I wrong about Matic. I expected him to be too slow and lumbering for Mourinho’s game, but instead was exactly the midfield veteran we needed - a tall, Serbian Roy Kent. At his age, there is no-one realistically coming in for him, and his contract was automatically extended. Keep.
Bryan Cristante - The unsung hero of this season, Cristante has been consummate professional we all know he can be. Unless we get outrageous money for him (doubtful), this is a Keep.
Edoardo Bove - Like Zalewski, he has been the cream of the crop of youngsters brought through by Mourinho. The argument here is not - should he stay or should he go, but rather should we keep or should we loan. Bove does need minutes… but in his defense, this season he’s gotten them and earned them on the pitch. Keep.
Benjamin Tahirovic - I feel so bad for Benjamin. He was thrown into the fire and while he didn’t do poorly… he didn’t do well either. Like Bove, he needs minutes… unlike Bove, his play hasn’t warranted giving them to him. If there was ever a player who needed a move to Sassuolo, here he is. Sell (with Buy-Back Clause).
Ebrima Darboe - I feel really bad for Darboe. He had the breakout season of his life only two years ago, but has been heavily hampered by injury for the past year and a half and is only returning to training… now. So what do we do with him? He needs minutes to gain back fitness, not just for us, but him and his sharpness. I doubt Sassuolo will bite, but I think a newly promoted team or an Udinese might. Loan.
Gonzalo Villar - Yep, he’s coming back. Like Viña, Getafe is not exercising their option to buy - he never even put on the jersey! - and like Karsdorp he also rather publicly fell out with Mourinho. In this case, though, the falling out was quite a bit more justified, as Gonzalo has proven himself to be both mentally and physically frail, while being technically gifted. There is value in this player, but no team has really been willing to take a risk on him. He has spoken publicly about a willingness to prove himself to Mourinho - I’d be willing to give him that chance, if anything due to a lack of options. Keep.
Attacking Midfielders/Wingers
Lorenzo Pellegrini - Do I need to discuss this one? Keep.
Paulo Dybala - Recent statements have really put the speculation to rest: Dybala appears to want to stay in Italy and in Rome specifically. Keep.
Stephan El Sharaawy - He has demonstrated a willingness to be a servant for the club, even agreeing to a pay-cut with his renewal package. Keep.
Cristian Volpato - See Tahirovic. He desperately needs the minutes his potential deserves. There has been a lot of chatter of him going off to Sassuolo and I think it makes the most sense. Sell (with Buy-Back Clause).
Ola Solbakken - Had his minutes cut drastically by the registration shenanigans due to Zaniolo transfer, but was solid in the league and has room to grow. Keep.
Justin Kluivert - Once again, Kluivert is returning to home-base. While I would like to see us make use of him, he has made it categorically clear that he doesn’t want to be here. Bournemouth are said to be interested, but I see him potentially doing quite well in France or Spain. There’s a particular club in Spain in particular who I think might bite… but more on them later. Sell.
Carles Perez - Like Kluivert, Perez is also returning from a loan (I’m seeing a pattern here), but unlike Kluivert I don’t see anything worthwhile that Perez might bring to this team. Sell.
Strikers
Tammy Abraham - Up until recently, he was the most likely in the squad to be monetized with West Ham and Aston Villa both interested. His ACL tear scuppered that plan, and is now likely to stay in Rome for one more season. I hope it’s redemption for him after a fairly poor season. Keep.
Andrea Belotti - SPEAKING OF POOR SEASONS! I cannot explain exactly what has happened to Belotti, but I’d guess that his poor form in the league is more due to a poor team form than his own. The service and creativity behind him was simply lacking, and without Abraham’s physicality to win long balls he was kind of left to his own devices, pressing defenders and midfielders as needed… which he did. His automatic contract extension was activated, however, so expect to see Andrea in Roma colors next season. Keep.
Eldor Shomurodov - This is a weird one… although this signing has been odd from the get-go. Shomurodov’s loan is likely not going to be made permanent by Spezia - especially if they get relegated - and this season he has been completely been cut out by N’zola’s heroics in front of goal. That said, Abraham’s injury means that there is a good chance Shomurodov will be playing in Roma colors next season - especially if we cannot get a striker in. Keep.
Goalkeeper
Emil Audero - Audero has been Serie A’s most unsung hero for a few seasons, keeping a mediocre Sampdoria side up when they clearly didn’t deserve to. Sampdoria’s financial woes can be very helpful to us, however, as we could essentially pick him up for a song (ie 6 million or less). There will likely be a bidding war for both Vicario and Carnesecchi this summer, but I’d rather go for solid and less flashy between the sticks.
Dominik Livakovic - This is a PSA: Livakovic still plays for Dinamo Zagreb… somehow. This is a world class, internationally rated goalkeeper that is entering his final year of contract. If we can beat the competition, this would be a great pickup.
Center-Backs
Kostantinos Mavropanos - With Stuttgart facing a relegation playoff, it’s possible that one of Europe’s best young(ish) center backs might be available for a significant discount. With the legacy that Dellas and Manolas have left with this club, having a Greek defender back at the club feels… right!
Diego Llorente - Played on loan with us for six months and impressed when he played. With Leeds just relegated and the player pushing to stay in Rome, it’s possible we get a good discount (there is no way we should spend 18 million on him though).
Fullbacks
Cristiano Biraghi - Biraghi is entering his final year of contract at Fiorentina and has been a solid option everywhere he has played. More defensively minded than Spinazzola or Zalewski, but still willing to run down the left and play a cross - he leads la Viola for progressive carries. Importantly, he is left-footed so he gives us a different play down the left than our two current left-backs.
Kai Wagner - If you don’t rate MLS, feel free to skip but Kai Wagner has been the one of the league’s best left-backs - former Schalke player before moving to Philadelphia and really exploding. Was set to join Leeds but their relegation changes that completely. Their loss is our gain - his contract expires in December, could be an excellent pickup.
Adrien Truffert - Had a breakout season for Rennes last season, who have an excellent eye for talent in recent years. Truffert has been marketed as being available for 15 million this summer - which is perhaps more than we’re willing to spend, but if Spinazzola is sold for a comparable fee, then this might be a solid like-for-like replacement.
Sergio Reguillón - His loan at Atletico has come to an end, and it’s looking like Reguillon is hitting the market once more. Mourinho is supposedly a big fan and they’ve worked well together before. This would likely be a loan, and only after Levy pays up for Ibanez as he’s likely to pull shenanigans. Still - this could be a great, essentially free, pickup.
Wilfried Singo - Last one on this list, Singo’s has had a great few years for Torino but has publicly come out and said he will not sign a new deal. This would be a solid alternative to Karsdorp as they play relatively similarly.
Midfielders
Youri Tielemans - This has been discussed quite a bit - Tielemans is available on a free this summer, and is pure class at deep-lying playmaker. My only concern is that he does not play as defensively as Mourinho might like, but this is still a great player and a great opportunity we should not let slip.
Florian Grillitsch - Like Tielemans, Grillitsch is available for a free this summer. Unlike Tielemans, however, Grillitsch has not had a great season after his move to Ajax this season - mainly due to injury. That said, this is a physical player who can play well with his feet - very much in the mold of a Strootman.
Nikola Moro - Moro has been an unsung, unspoken of, hero of Bologna’s season with Serie A leading stats for progressive passes, carries, and successful through balls. He is currently on loan with an option to buy from Dinamo Moscow and it seems increasingly unlikely that Bologna will use that option. We should absolutely make an offer as Moro has shown himself to be an excellent and reliable midfield option.
Davide Frattesi - Let’s try this again, shall we? This is likely going to happen this summer - with a players plus cash mega deal with Sassuolo. This is not quite the profile I outlined but would provide a dose of dynamism to a rather sluggish midfield.
Strikers
This one is complicated - because the profile I outlined doesn’t exist at our price-range. In an ideal world, we would take advantage of the absurd situation at Chelsea and pickup Kai Havertz on loan as that fits the criteria exactly - Striker and Attacking Midfielder in one (Richarlison also comes to mind). So here’s my best choices although none of them is exactly perfect for what we want.
Sheraldo Becker - One of the lynchpins of the Union Berlin cinderella story, Becker is explosive when he gets going and fits a counterattacking team perfectly. Becker is very publicly available for a cool 20mln this summer, but may be able to be negotiated down as this is last year of contract. The issue is that Becker is more a wingeattacking midfielder than a striker. He has played there in a pinch but it doesn’t play the most to his strengths.
Alfredo Morelos - Morelos has just left the Ibrox at the end of his contract looking for a bigger club, but no-one has bitten yet. He is an out-and-out goal scorer, who played as an 11 in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Here, the problem is the reverse - can he play at second striker as a Raumdeuter-type player?
Mauro Icardi - Here we are again, linked with Mauro Icardi for a price as close to “free” as is possible. Is it worth it to bring the Icardi soap opera to a powder keg like Rome? Honestly… if there’s one thing Icardi does, that Icardi always does, is score goals, something we desperately needed this past season. Again, like Morelos though, can he play alongside a number 9 as a second striker?
Last one, which I’m including purely for the banter of it but…
Mario Balotelli - WAIT stop don’t Alt-F4 this just yet. Hear me out. Mourinho is one of the few coaches to get Balotelli to act like an actual footballer, and he has a great rapport with Stephan El Sharaawy. I think these two things in combination might get one last gasp out of Italy’s last truly great talent, with the added benefit that he can play both the positions I outlined above. Sion has crashed out of the Superleague in Switzerland after losing their playoff, so Balotelli will likely leave on a free. I would go for a gamble on him with an Adriano-esque behavior clause that lets us tear up his contract for behavioral issues.
Also, for what it's worth, he's fairly good at Penalties. Which I bring up... for reasons.
submitted by MrPoliSciGuy to ASRoma [link] [comments]
It's about that time again! For the fifth year in a row, here is my (unsolicited) overview of Roma's squad, current mercato, potential signings, and loan dealings.
Every year I try to give these a theme - last year, the name of the game was versatility: getting players who could cover multiple roles as we had a severely reduced squad due to FFP rules. We saw exactly how that came to bite us both in the league - where we were LITERALLY playing the kids to give the first teamers a break - and in the EL Final, where forced substitutions left us going into Penalties with no designated penalty takers.
With no expectation of squad reductions this season, the name of the game for this exercise is depth - our first team is good, VERY good even, but the question is "what options do we have on the bench or in rotation that can keep that level of quality?" and the answer this season due to injuries (Wijnaldum, Kumbulla), transfers and personal issues (Zaniolo, Karsdorp), or registration issues (Solbakken) has been categorically no. Simply put, it is not fair to put the weight of expectation on Benjamin Tahirovic (who is too young to purchase Alcohol in the United States) because our midfield of Matic and Cristante cannot play every game. Pair that with the long term injuries to Kumbulla and Abraham - both of whom will not be back until 2024 - and we need bodies, plain and simple.
Our current FFP situation also means that we will likely need to end this mercato in the black - which means relying on free transfers, loans, and spending money VERY judiciously.
Transfer Dealings Done
Now to our credit, we have gotten a head start on at least two players:Houssam Aouar: Aouar is a gamble in my honest opinion. A few years ago, this man was the Robin to Nabil Fekir’s Batman, and while I don’t think either of those players has had the career they had hoped to have, on his day this man can be unplayable. Emphasis on the “on his day”. On good days, Aouar has Jordan Veretout’s work ethic, and Jeremy Menez’s feet. On bad days, he has Veretout’s feet and Menez’s work ethic.
On the positive though, he can play (like Pellegrini) both in the center midfield as an 8, or more attacking as a 10. This can give us options off the bench to either rotate or change a game as necessary.
Evan Ndicka: Now this one I’m very happy about. Ndicka is left footed, very physical, but very intelligent as well which means he has a good eye for a pass as needed. He reminds me quite a bit of Antonio Rudiger in that he fits a very similar profile and played for a Bundesliga club at a similar level. I have no reservations - I think he will be a hit, but like Aouar will benefit tremendously from a full pre-season.
Squad Breakdown
NOTE - I am not including loan players who have returned to their respective clubs (Wijnaldum, Camara, Llorente)Goalkeepers
Pietro Boer - Let’s start with the easy one: Boer is a third choice keeper that is home-grown at club. Useful for registration, costs us peanuts, has never complained. Keep.
Rui Patricio - From the easy to the hard one: Rui’s decline this season has been sharp, but consistent. His great saves remind us that, once upon a time, that’s a solid goalkeeper, but that has been paired with just… odd mistakes - not Robin Olsen bad, but pretty bad nonetheless. This is no longer a starting International Goalkeeper (that honor goes to Diogo Costa nowadays). He would still make an excellent second-choice goalkeeper at a top club - which might be a good selling point as he still has admirers in the Premier League. Sell.
Mile Svilar - I really wanted to love Svilar. Football Manager Stans rise up, because ALL of us have signed Svilar at one point or another. Svilar still strikes me as potentially a very good keeper, but he has been unable to dislodge Patricio from that starting berth. I think he will end up staying around, and I hope he can prove himself to everyone in a starting role next season. Keep.
Defenders
Gianluca Mancini - We start with Mancini because as of right now, he is the only defender that looks certain to stay. He is definitely the second coming of Materazzi in temperament… if not in talent just yet. He still as a few years on his contract, Mourinho likes him a lot, and he provides leadership on and off the pitch. Keep.
Chris Smalling - While Smalling has been our best player (not just defender) at quite a few points this season, I am always concerned about long-term performance with him. I think he should be renewed - his play has merited that - but if I said “leader at the back, wins everything in the air, incredibly useful on set pieces” I haven’t just described Smalling… I’m also describing one Federico Fazio. Players like Fazio and Smalling are incredibly reliant on their physical attributes - but that physicality at older ages is one major injury away from disappearing completely. Renew him - but no more than two years. Keep.
Marash Kumbulla - Ah, the anti-Smalling. If Chris Smalling’s play has merited him to receive a contract renewal, Kumbulla’s definitely has not. However, due to his ACL injury, Marash is staying for another season in Rome… even if he probably shouldn’t. Keep.
Roger Ibañez - Now comes the other shoe. Roma needs to raise 30 million euros by the end of June to comply with their FFP agreement with Uefa. Failure to do so will likely hamstring us again in the coming Europa League, especially without Champions League money. With Abraham’s injury, and Ndicka a done deal, the clearest place to monetize in the squad is with Roger Ibañez. Our relationship with Roger has been a love-hate one, where we love his grinta and his ability to score in crucial moments, but his brain-farts have cost us on the pitch… repeatedly. Sell.
Full-Backs
Rick Karsdorp - It’s unclear what Karsdorp’s situation with the manager is. On the one hand, Karsdorp was reintegrated into the squad after his falling out with Mourinho and did continue to play, but how much of that was convenience and a “wait until the summer” mentality rather than anything truly genuine. Karsdorp is also currently recovering from an injury, which he should be fit from before September. He has a contract until 2025 - I’d consider him out the door should we receive a good offer… but I doubt we will. Keep.
Zeki Celik - I think it speaks volumes that Mourinho at times has preferred to play Spinazzola or Zalewski on the wrong side rather that give Celik the start. I don’t know if this has been due to poor form, injuries, or simply needing another season to “gel”. Regardless, I don’t think selling Celik at this point will accomplish anything. Keep.
Matias Viña - Remember him? Bournemouth has not exercised their option, so Viña is returning to home base. Unlike other loan moves, however, his time with the Cherries was fairly solid - including an outrageous goal against Chelsea. Why he’s not being renewed, I’m not sure but the Premier League exposure definitely helped us if we choose to cash in. The question is… should we? We are crying out for depth and Viña is a textbook “depth” option. I think we should approach this like Karsdorp - if we get an offer, consider it, otherwise Keep.
Leonardo Spinazzola - On paper, this is our best fullback. In practice, all of us know that the best ability is availability and Leonardo has just… not been there when needed. He is also - critically - the wrong side of 30, which in this position can cost you that turn of pace that is needed. I think, like Ibañez, this is a player we should cash in on now, especially as he enters his final year of contract. Sell.
Nicola Zalewski - Fortunately, this one is easy: Nicola has the distinction of being both young and home-grown, takes no space in registration, and Mourinho loves him. Keep.
Midfielders
Nemanja Matic - Boy was I wrong about Matic. I expected him to be too slow and lumbering for Mourinho’s game, but instead was exactly the midfield veteran we needed - a tall, Serbian Roy Kent. At his age, there is no-one realistically coming in for him, and his contract was automatically extended. Keep.
Bryan Cristante - The unsung hero of this season, Cristante has been consummate professional we all know he can be. Unless we get outrageous money for him (doubtful), this is a Keep.
Edoardo Bove - Like Zalewski, he has been the cream of the crop of youngsters brought through by Mourinho. The argument here is not - should he stay or should he go, but rather should we keep or should we loan. Bove does need minutes… but in his defense, this season he’s gotten them and earned them on the pitch. Keep.
Benjamin Tahirovic - I feel so bad for Benjamin. He was thrown into the fire and while he didn’t do poorly… he didn’t do well either. Like Bove, he needs minutes… unlike Bove, his play hasn’t warranted giving them to him. If there was ever a player who needed a move to Sassuolo, here he is. Sell (with Buy-Back Clause).
Ebrima Darboe - I feel really bad for Darboe. He had the breakout season of his life only two years ago, but has been heavily hampered by injury for the past year and a half and is only returning to training… now. So what do we do with him? He needs minutes to gain back fitness, not just for us, but him and his sharpness. I doubt Sassuolo will bite, but I think a newly promoted team or an Udinese might. Loan.
Gonzalo Villar - Yep, he’s coming back. Like Viña, Getafe is not exercising their option to buy - he never even put on the jersey! - and like Karsdorp he also rather publicly fell out with Mourinho. In this case, though, the falling out was quite a bit more justified, as Gonzalo has proven himself to be both mentally and physically frail, while being technically gifted. There is value in this player, but no team has really been willing to take a risk on him. He has spoken publicly about a willingness to prove himself to Mourinho - I’d be willing to give him that chance, if anything due to a lack of options. Keep.
Attacking Midfielders/Wingers
Lorenzo Pellegrini - Do I need to discuss this one? Keep.
Paulo Dybala - Recent statements have really put the speculation to rest: Dybala appears to want to stay in Italy and in Rome specifically. Keep.
Stephan El Sharaawy - He has demonstrated a willingness to be a servant for the club, even agreeing to a pay-cut with his renewal package. Keep.
Cristian Volpato - See Tahirovic. He desperately needs the minutes his potential deserves. There has been a lot of chatter of him going off to Sassuolo and I think it makes the most sense. Sell (with Buy-Back Clause).
Ola Solbakken - Had his minutes cut drastically by the registration shenanigans due to Zaniolo transfer, but was solid in the league and has room to grow. Keep.
Justin Kluivert - Once again, Kluivert is returning to home-base. While I would like to see us make use of him, he has made it categorically clear that he doesn’t want to be here. Bournemouth are said to be interested, but I see him potentially doing quite well in France or Spain. There’s a particular club in Spain in particular who I think might bite… but more on them later. Sell.
Carles Perez - Like Kluivert, Perez is also returning from a loan (I’m seeing a pattern here), but unlike Kluivert I don’t see anything worthwhile that Perez might bring to this team. Sell.
Strikers
Tammy Abraham - Up until recently, he was the most likely in the squad to be monetized with West Ham and Aston Villa both interested. His ACL tear scuppered that plan, and is now likely to stay in Rome for one more season. I hope it’s redemption for him after a fairly poor season. Keep.
Andrea Belotti - SPEAKING OF POOR SEASONS! I cannot explain exactly what has happened to Belotti, but I’d guess that his poor form in the league is more due to a poor team form than his own. The service and creativity behind him was simply lacking, and without Abraham’s physicality to win long balls he was kind of left to his own devices, pressing defenders and midfielders as needed… which he did. His automatic contract extension was activated, however, so expect to see Andrea in Roma colors next season. Keep.
Eldor Shomurodov - This is a weird one… although this signing has been odd from the get-go. Shomurodov’s loan is likely not going to be made permanent by Spezia - especially if they get relegated - and this season he has been completely been cut out by N’zola’s heroics in front of goal. That said, Abraham’s injury means that there is a good chance Shomurodov will be playing in Roma colors next season - especially if we cannot get a striker in. Keep.
Squad Needs
To my mind - this is including the Aouar and Ndicka transfers - this team needs at least one more player per role.- A Goalkeeper to replace either Rui Patricio as first-choice keeper, or Svilar as second-choice keeper.
- An additional Left-Back to replace the departing Spinazzola - preferably left-footed to provide a different kind of player to Zalewski.
- An additional fullback as coverage for both wings (either footed).
- A deep-lying playmaker who can give coverage for Cristante, either to rest or when he is needed as an additional defender.
- A rotation defender who can slot in to give coverage for the injured Kumbulla.
- A versatile attacker who can play both at striker, and as a second-striker alongside Dybala for coverage.
Targets
Let’s tackle these in order, shall we?Goalkeeper
Emil Audero - Audero has been Serie A’s most unsung hero for a few seasons, keeping a mediocre Sampdoria side up when they clearly didn’t deserve to. Sampdoria’s financial woes can be very helpful to us, however, as we could essentially pick him up for a song (ie 6 million or less). There will likely be a bidding war for both Vicario and Carnesecchi this summer, but I’d rather go for solid and less flashy between the sticks.
Dominik Livakovic - This is a PSA: Livakovic still plays for Dinamo Zagreb… somehow. This is a world class, internationally rated goalkeeper that is entering his final year of contract. If we can beat the competition, this would be a great pickup.
Center-Backs
Kostantinos Mavropanos - With Stuttgart facing a relegation playoff, it’s possible that one of Europe’s best young(ish) center backs might be available for a significant discount. With the legacy that Dellas and Manolas have left with this club, having a Greek defender back at the club feels… right!
Diego Llorente - Played on loan with us for six months and impressed when he played. With Leeds just relegated and the player pushing to stay in Rome, it’s possible we get a good discount (there is no way we should spend 18 million on him though).
Fullbacks
Cristiano Biraghi - Biraghi is entering his final year of contract at Fiorentina and has been a solid option everywhere he has played. More defensively minded than Spinazzola or Zalewski, but still willing to run down the left and play a cross - he leads la Viola for progressive carries. Importantly, he is left-footed so he gives us a different play down the left than our two current left-backs.
Kai Wagner - If you don’t rate MLS, feel free to skip but Kai Wagner has been the one of the league’s best left-backs - former Schalke player before moving to Philadelphia and really exploding. Was set to join Leeds but their relegation changes that completely. Their loss is our gain - his contract expires in December, could be an excellent pickup.
Adrien Truffert - Had a breakout season for Rennes last season, who have an excellent eye for talent in recent years. Truffert has been marketed as being available for 15 million this summer - which is perhaps more than we’re willing to spend, but if Spinazzola is sold for a comparable fee, then this might be a solid like-for-like replacement.
Sergio Reguillón - His loan at Atletico has come to an end, and it’s looking like Reguillon is hitting the market once more. Mourinho is supposedly a big fan and they’ve worked well together before. This would likely be a loan, and only after Levy pays up for Ibanez as he’s likely to pull shenanigans. Still - this could be a great, essentially free, pickup.
Wilfried Singo - Last one on this list, Singo’s has had a great few years for Torino but has publicly come out and said he will not sign a new deal. This would be a solid alternative to Karsdorp as they play relatively similarly.
Midfielders
Youri Tielemans - This has been discussed quite a bit - Tielemans is available on a free this summer, and is pure class at deep-lying playmaker. My only concern is that he does not play as defensively as Mourinho might like, but this is still a great player and a great opportunity we should not let slip.
Florian Grillitsch - Like Tielemans, Grillitsch is available for a free this summer. Unlike Tielemans, however, Grillitsch has not had a great season after his move to Ajax this season - mainly due to injury. That said, this is a physical player who can play well with his feet - very much in the mold of a Strootman.
Nikola Moro - Moro has been an unsung, unspoken of, hero of Bologna’s season with Serie A leading stats for progressive passes, carries, and successful through balls. He is currently on loan with an option to buy from Dinamo Moscow and it seems increasingly unlikely that Bologna will use that option. We should absolutely make an offer as Moro has shown himself to be an excellent and reliable midfield option.
Davide Frattesi - Let’s try this again, shall we? This is likely going to happen this summer - with a players plus cash mega deal with Sassuolo. This is not quite the profile I outlined but would provide a dose of dynamism to a rather sluggish midfield.
Strikers
This one is complicated - because the profile I outlined doesn’t exist at our price-range. In an ideal world, we would take advantage of the absurd situation at Chelsea and pickup Kai Havertz on loan as that fits the criteria exactly - Striker and Attacking Midfielder in one (Richarlison also comes to mind). So here’s my best choices although none of them is exactly perfect for what we want.
Sheraldo Becker - One of the lynchpins of the Union Berlin cinderella story, Becker is explosive when he gets going and fits a counterattacking team perfectly. Becker is very publicly available for a cool 20mln this summer, but may be able to be negotiated down as this is last year of contract. The issue is that Becker is more a wingeattacking midfielder than a striker. He has played there in a pinch but it doesn’t play the most to his strengths.
Alfredo Morelos - Morelos has just left the Ibrox at the end of his contract looking for a bigger club, but no-one has bitten yet. He is an out-and-out goal scorer, who played as an 11 in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Here, the problem is the reverse - can he play at second striker as a Raumdeuter-type player?
Mauro Icardi - Here we are again, linked with Mauro Icardi for a price as close to “free” as is possible. Is it worth it to bring the Icardi soap opera to a powder keg like Rome? Honestly… if there’s one thing Icardi does, that Icardi always does, is score goals, something we desperately needed this past season. Again, like Morelos though, can he play alongside a number 9 as a second striker?
Last one, which I’m including purely for the banter of it but…
Mario Balotelli - WAIT stop don’t Alt-F4 this just yet. Hear me out. Mourinho is one of the few coaches to get Balotelli to act like an actual footballer, and he has a great rapport with Stephan El Sharaawy. I think these two things in combination might get one last gasp out of Italy’s last truly great talent, with the added benefit that he can play both the positions I outlined above. Sion has crashed out of the Superleague in Switzerland after losing their playoff, so Balotelli will likely leave on a free. I would go for a gamble on him with an Adriano-esque behavior clause that lets us tear up his contract for behavioral issues.
Also, for what it's worth, he's fairly good at Penalties. Which I bring up... for reasons.
Conclusion
Well... that was a long read, kudos for making it to the end. This summer looks to be another summer of transition - but there is a lot to this squad that is salvageable. After the Final, a lot of us were perfectly willing to blow up the team and start over, but that's not my take here. We were let down in that final by our squad depth - when preparing for penalties Mourinho looked at a bench that had Volpato, Tahirovic, Camara, Karsdorp and two goalkeepers - not exactly a stacked bench full of specialists. We can talk dirty play, bad refereeing, and poor penalties all day though, but what killed us at the final hurdle and indeed all season was our lack of depth. Rebuilding the squad is not a way to achieve that. I look forward to your comments and thoughts, and hope to see a good mercato!2023.06.10 00:26 Internal_Prune_5108 contracting 101
Residential Contracting 101
With over 20 years of building experience, I would like to share with you my insights in navigating becoming a successful contractor. With many different avenues of the building world its key to understand what problems will arise on any given day. A man once told a saying that stuck-the 6 p’s in life- Piss Poor Preparation leads to Piss Poor Performance. Preparation builds everything in construction, without preparation the jobsite will not run correctly. The best advice I was ever given was to learn a little about every trade giving you the ability to understand trade lingo and secrets. An example would be painters use the terminology flash; this means when the sub structure bleads through the paint. Subcontractors will give the best pricing if they respect your knowledge of the industry. If the subcontractor feels they will have to hold your hand through the job they will charge an extra fee…i.e. I call it the aggravation fee. In this blog I will explain the key elements in finding success in all aspects of the industry. Contracting is a physically and emotionally demanding job which requires planning and foresight to complete projects on time within budget. Picking your customer is just as important as picking your employees or subcontractors. I have worked for some of the most demanding customers leading me to question at the end if the job was even worth it. Sleepless nights, constant changes, lack of payment, lawsuit threats, adding work that was in the contract are just a few things you could face with a tough customer. With so many moving parts at all times it is critical to be able to adapt to changes within a short time frame. Materials will come in damaged, subcontractors will be late, employees will get sick, but the deadline you set does not change. The stress can be overwhelming at times keeping your mind in a good place is key to navigating all that is thrown at you. Choosing your client picking the right jobs-Keep these questions in mind The first question to be asked is what the time frame is to start the job to see if it fits within the timeframe for your business. If the time frame doesn’t work then move on from the project or let them know when you would be available to start. If the client really wants to use, they will wait until you are available. Taking on too much work will only lead to problems. Construction is a serviced based business, staying on top of the project and client will eliminate an unhappy customer and construction issues that will be over seen. With online presence if details are missed and customer service lacks it will only be a matter of time the phone will not ring. The second question to be asked to the client is do they have a budget in mind for the project. If they answer yes this is good, follow through with what the budget is. If the budget seems low let them know, this will eliminate a tire kicker, educate them on what the price range could be. If the budget seems reasonable then continue the discussion to the next question. If they answer no let them know that you can give them an estimate to see if the project is feasible with their finical capabilities. Taking on a job that is not correctly budgeted will lead to an unsatisfied customer due to non-transparency of the construction cost. The third question to be asked is anyone else bidding on the job, if the answer is yes, understand you might just be number check for the contractor doing the job. Dig a little deeper and find out how many numbers they are getting and why. If your business model is to be competitive be completely transparent with customer, this will gain trust with them. Let them know you get what you pay for and if you they choose the lowest bid it could lead into lack of quality of work.
The fourth question I will ask is there any specific subcontractors they wanted to use. If the answer is yes then I would explain to them you only use the subcontractors you have a working relationship with. Otherwise, this could backfire as the subcontractor might not show, do subpar work, talk behind your back to the homeowner. In my experience I would stay away from using any homeowner to alleviate problems down the road. A quick conversation now can save headaches down the road. The fifth question I will ask are planning on getting the job permitted, this needs to be known it takes more time for the permitting process. Plans will have to drawn submitted and approved to the city before work can commence. The sixth question I will ask if a residential remodel is are you going to be living through the remodel if yes understand this will take more time to navigate the project due to answering questions and cleaning the house on a daily occurrence. I would recommend seeing if the customer would be willing to move into an Airbnb or friends for at least the demo portion of the project. If they do plan on living through the remodel add a couple hours a day to accommodate the extra time that will be required. The seventh question I would ask in a residential remodel is how old the house is to see if there is asbestos that would need to removed by a proper company. A home built before 1979 will most likely have some asbestos in the house, use a licensed company with proper insurance to dispose of the materials. If everything looks good to this point find out a little more about the client personality. If the client seems reasonable, I would bid the job. Unreasonable people can cause you more stress than its worth. These are some red flags I would look out for. Some jobs are not worth the money. Very demanding in the way you are going to perform your job- I.e., tell you how you are going to do your job- You’re the professional not them! Give you a hard time about your price- haggle with price you estimated- The price is the price! If they are a family with little money and you want to help them out is one thing, if they are trying to beat you down is another. Mention they have a lawyer-there is no need for them to bring up that they have a lawyer - Run for the hills as if the job goes south, you will be the one losing out! Tell you what the payment terms are. It’s your business you get paid how it works for your company. If you want to get paid every Friday, put it into your contract-If the clients do not agree move on it will save you frustrations If they talk bad about the last contractor, chances are they will talk bad about you. There is a reason why the contractor does not work for them anymore, unless he did subpar work this a red flag Clients are using an interior decorator that will purchasing all of the materials- The materials could be ordered incorrectly by the interior designer your company will not make the mark-up it deserves. Interior decorators usually add time to the job as well as act like your boss. Charging a little extra for the time and stress that it will entail is only fair. Clients want to purchase the materials- You are using your knowledge to buy the correct materials-The mark up on the materials keeps the doors open working for wages only pays the bills The husband and wife do not get along-You will become the mediator between the couple it will lead to taking sides a losing proposition- A drama free work place is always best! Dangling carrot-if you do this job the next one will be better-Only look at what there offering at the present moment, if its not a good fit do not take the job for a job down the road…Its not worth chasing a job that might not happen! The Art of the Sale First things first selling your company is all about presentation. In meeting your clients for the first time show up with a collared golf shirt tucked in, belt, nice jeans, and newer shoes. Have a truck that a clean, no dents scratches, preferably washed the day you are going into your meeting. Have a leather note pad that is clean no dirt or paint visible. Show up 5 minutes early, if you’re running a little late shoot them a text to let them know. Treat the situation as if were going on a first date, best foot forward. As you introduce yourself give them a warm greeting, letting them know you are very interested in the work. Find out a little about them, hobbies, where they lived, etc etc. You are going to be working with them on a daily basis its nice to know what makes them tick. Having a good working relationship from the start is key forming a solid relationship. As the conversation progresses find out who wears the pants in the family…ie who’s the final decision maker. If its fits the wife, chances it is…..then kindly let the husband know happy wife happy life when their in a stall mate on an issue. As your looking at the project throw in some suggestions of what you think would look good from past experiences, this will get their attention that you have knowledge and want what’s best for them. If you see ways to save them money in their project let them know, money is a large point of the sale keep that in mind. Mention that you’re not the least expensive contractor but you’re not the most expensive either. Your customer satisfaction is your number one goal which leads to more time spent on keeping them happy. One happy customer will lead to another, one unsatisfied customer leads to work in the future. Bring up the fact the finishing the job on time is key goal to your business, many contractors run several jobs at once causing the jobs to be finished way behind schedule. You must stand out as having integrity, good morals, and the ability to problem solve to get the job. The clients will be testing you to see if you’re a good fit as well. Keep in mind as you take your notes that you must not forget anything they mention as it will come back before the job is completed…i.e. we mentioned that to you before we started the job! Take pictures of the proposed area for work, that way you can use it to better right your estimate. Let them know you will give them a detailed outline of when the job will be completed letting them see how long each phase will take and correlate it with your payment schedule. Before you leave their house let them know when the estimate will be sent to them. MAKE SURE YOU HIT THAT DEADLINE! Once you sent the email over with estimate make sure you get confirmation that they received it. Wait at least 2 days before checking with them, hopefully they contact you first! If they want negotiate the price, let them know that it is the best price that you can manage, its not worth losing money before you start. I closed 80% of the work I estimated by being very transparent and friendly. If you come off with an attitude charge double what the going rates are you might only land 1 out of 10 jobs as well as getting the reputation of being expensive. Bidding the job Looking up industry standards on pricing is what I would go buy for pricing. If you google the coat of any installation there will be a cost range for everything. Looking at the cost ranging from high to low I would tend to be in the middle. Some items might be low on the internet if this is the case use your best judgment not to lose money. Closing sales is key to success and keep the doors open for business. Being in the middle on pricing is key as most customers shy away from contractors that are extremely low or high on the price range. I tend not bid out hourly as wages do not pay for retirement. Bidding is better as customers no the exact price of the cost of construction. It also keeps the job moving quicker as time and material contractors take longer to complete projects…Thus costing the client more money and valuable time they could spend in their house. Using a Contract Using a detailed estimate tied to a contract covers your butt in 99% of the time. Having a piece of mind that every aspect of the job is covered in the estimate and contract protects both your company and the client. Key terms to include in your estimate/contract are. Have a schedule on excel showing the start dates and dates of each trade this will show the customer you are organized with time lines. If not written in the detailed in the estimate the item is excluded- This ensures if its not written down its not included. TBD- To be Determined- A phrase on a line item that has yet to had final decision of products or service needed. -The pricing will follow the decisions to be finalized Give out what your written warranty will be for parts and labor this changes state to state. If the homeowner provides the product than no warranty will be given on that particular item. In the contract have a start date and end date with the verbiage subject to change due to weather, product delivery, change orders Have a progress payment schedule to ensure the client understands when funding will be expected-Including if not payment is rendered service to the project will stop. Have written terms of how change orders will be charged-cost plus 20% or a set fee Make sure in your contract that arbitration is required versus going to court- This will save lawyer fees and going to court Many contracts can be found online and each state requires different contracts
Finding leads Finding leads is easy with the right network of people. I personally do not find working for friends or family members a good fit. Relationships get strained when money is involved, causing undue stress for both parties. I have listed a couple of ways to build a network or find work using the internet. Get in contact with realtor’s- Realtors have a big client base of homeowners who need work done Contact local Architects to see if they are working with any general contractors Leave some business cards at your local materials suppliers-Doowindow/lumber-many times clients will ask salesman for a referral. Join a business networking group- BNI is one of many Join a internet website lead generation company- Houzz, Angie’s List, Home Advisor, thumbtack, Yelp run an ad on craigslist Use a marketing company to market your website-This could become costly with little results Create a Facebook business page Create a Yelp business page
Building your subcontractor base Having 2 subcontractors for every trade, gives you the flexibility of completing jobs on time if the one the subcontractors is too busy at the time you need their service. Your subcontractors are the face of your business, choose owner run companies that are professional. Check to make sure there license are up to date..ie workman’s comp, liability insurance, state license. Choosing subcontractors with lettered vans, logoed t-shirts is s key to looking professional in the clients’ eyes. In the past I have gotten a lot of subcontractors for material supply shops, stopping by jobsites, researching the internet using Yelp, Home Advisor, etc etc. Once you get one good subcontractor ask them if they know any other trades they would recommend. One good subcontractor leads to another in most cases. The key to having a good group of subcontractors is to let them know that you are there to get help them get the job done. They do work for you but without them you are nothing…keep that in mind! Make them aware a clean jobsite is required at the end of everyday to ensure the proper safety for all parties including theirs! Over the years I have referred a lot of companies work when there is only 1 trade needed. Referring work to subcontractors is a good way to get top priority when you have work that needs to be completed ASAP. Timing is everything in times of emergency having a good group of subcontractors will make your business run smoothly. Pay your subcontractors immediately after performing work, this will make them feel appreciated! A happy subcontractor is one that will gladly go the extra mile for you knowing that there not just a number to your business! Buying lunch once a week for the jobsite is always a good token of appreciation!
Supervising In supervising any jobsite its key to monitor everything from materials on hand, weather, vehicle parking (if applicable), jobsite safety, and subcontractors’ workmanship. If you hired a professional there should be little supervision in the work being performed, on rare occasions a new hire might need some mentoring to get the results completed correctly. If you see a problem with there work address it with the worker directly, no need to call his boss…. building repour with the worker letting him know you got his back goes miles down the road! Checking in on the job first in the morning to answer any questions or changes that need to be conveyed and once in the afternoon to make sure all work be completed is done per construction industry standards. A job that is run blindly will have many more issues than one that is watched over. I have seen many jobs with no site supervision, leading to subpar quality work as well as safety hazards. Its better to be like an eagle than cluck like a turkey!
Working with the City/Inspectors On permitted jobs the city and site inspector will be a large part of how smoothly the job runs. Each phase of construction has an inspection allowing for the project to continue. Make sure your subcontractors are aware that the project is inspected before starting the job. The best way to stay on his good side is to provide a clean jobsite and having the job built to the highest standards possible. When having the site inspected be courteous to the inspector asking any questions or concerns you have with the work during the job. Being completely transparent will save you aggravation of problems down the road. The more he trust you the better if you seem sneaky or rude he will make your life a living nightmare! Many inspectors will have an attitude towards you….I suggest keeping quiet and doing what ever he wants….he’s the boss no need to get in a pissing match you will not win at. How to deal with irate customer Stay calm during any argument with an irate customer. Never raise your voice or show that you are bothered by their disgruntled behavior. If the customer is trying to get more from you than agreed upon stand your ground. Worst case scenario is you walk from the job, which in the long run be more of a loss for the client. I have only run into a couple of these clients; they are unreasonable and not worth losing sleep over a few dollars. Its best to terminate the relationship as it would be my best guess that a referral from this customer would not be one you wanted anyway. If you feel it was just a miscommunication on your end, take reasonability and remedy the problem. Taking accountability for your mistake will go a far way in their eyes and on future issues that arise. Prepping the homeowner pre-construction Before starting the job, it very important to give the homeowners a warning of what will happen during the construction process.
submitted by Internal_Prune_5108 to Contracting [link] [comments]
With over 20 years of building experience, I would like to share with you my insights in navigating becoming a successful contractor. With many different avenues of the building world its key to understand what problems will arise on any given day. A man once told a saying that stuck-the 6 p’s in life- Piss Poor Preparation leads to Piss Poor Performance. Preparation builds everything in construction, without preparation the jobsite will not run correctly. The best advice I was ever given was to learn a little about every trade giving you the ability to understand trade lingo and secrets. An example would be painters use the terminology flash; this means when the sub structure bleads through the paint. Subcontractors will give the best pricing if they respect your knowledge of the industry. If the subcontractor feels they will have to hold your hand through the job they will charge an extra fee…i.e. I call it the aggravation fee. In this blog I will explain the key elements in finding success in all aspects of the industry. Contracting is a physically and emotionally demanding job which requires planning and foresight to complete projects on time within budget. Picking your customer is just as important as picking your employees or subcontractors. I have worked for some of the most demanding customers leading me to question at the end if the job was even worth it. Sleepless nights, constant changes, lack of payment, lawsuit threats, adding work that was in the contract are just a few things you could face with a tough customer. With so many moving parts at all times it is critical to be able to adapt to changes within a short time frame. Materials will come in damaged, subcontractors will be late, employees will get sick, but the deadline you set does not change. The stress can be overwhelming at times keeping your mind in a good place is key to navigating all that is thrown at you. Choosing your client picking the right jobs-Keep these questions in mind The first question to be asked is what the time frame is to start the job to see if it fits within the timeframe for your business. If the time frame doesn’t work then move on from the project or let them know when you would be available to start. If the client really wants to use, they will wait until you are available. Taking on too much work will only lead to problems. Construction is a serviced based business, staying on top of the project and client will eliminate an unhappy customer and construction issues that will be over seen. With online presence if details are missed and customer service lacks it will only be a matter of time the phone will not ring. The second question to be asked to the client is do they have a budget in mind for the project. If they answer yes this is good, follow through with what the budget is. If the budget seems low let them know, this will eliminate a tire kicker, educate them on what the price range could be. If the budget seems reasonable then continue the discussion to the next question. If they answer no let them know that you can give them an estimate to see if the project is feasible with their finical capabilities. Taking on a job that is not correctly budgeted will lead to an unsatisfied customer due to non-transparency of the construction cost. The third question to be asked is anyone else bidding on the job, if the answer is yes, understand you might just be number check for the contractor doing the job. Dig a little deeper and find out how many numbers they are getting and why. If your business model is to be competitive be completely transparent with customer, this will gain trust with them. Let them know you get what you pay for and if you they choose the lowest bid it could lead into lack of quality of work.
The fourth question I will ask is there any specific subcontractors they wanted to use. If the answer is yes then I would explain to them you only use the subcontractors you have a working relationship with. Otherwise, this could backfire as the subcontractor might not show, do subpar work, talk behind your back to the homeowner. In my experience I would stay away from using any homeowner to alleviate problems down the road. A quick conversation now can save headaches down the road. The fifth question I will ask are planning on getting the job permitted, this needs to be known it takes more time for the permitting process. Plans will have to drawn submitted and approved to the city before work can commence. The sixth question I will ask if a residential remodel is are you going to be living through the remodel if yes understand this will take more time to navigate the project due to answering questions and cleaning the house on a daily occurrence. I would recommend seeing if the customer would be willing to move into an Airbnb or friends for at least the demo portion of the project. If they do plan on living through the remodel add a couple hours a day to accommodate the extra time that will be required. The seventh question I would ask in a residential remodel is how old the house is to see if there is asbestos that would need to removed by a proper company. A home built before 1979 will most likely have some asbestos in the house, use a licensed company with proper insurance to dispose of the materials. If everything looks good to this point find out a little more about the client personality. If the client seems reasonable, I would bid the job. Unreasonable people can cause you more stress than its worth. These are some red flags I would look out for. Some jobs are not worth the money. Very demanding in the way you are going to perform your job- I.e., tell you how you are going to do your job- You’re the professional not them! Give you a hard time about your price- haggle with price you estimated- The price is the price! If they are a family with little money and you want to help them out is one thing, if they are trying to beat you down is another. Mention they have a lawyer-there is no need for them to bring up that they have a lawyer - Run for the hills as if the job goes south, you will be the one losing out! Tell you what the payment terms are. It’s your business you get paid how it works for your company. If you want to get paid every Friday, put it into your contract-If the clients do not agree move on it will save you frustrations If they talk bad about the last contractor, chances are they will talk bad about you. There is a reason why the contractor does not work for them anymore, unless he did subpar work this a red flag Clients are using an interior decorator that will purchasing all of the materials- The materials could be ordered incorrectly by the interior designer your company will not make the mark-up it deserves. Interior decorators usually add time to the job as well as act like your boss. Charging a little extra for the time and stress that it will entail is only fair. Clients want to purchase the materials- You are using your knowledge to buy the correct materials-The mark up on the materials keeps the doors open working for wages only pays the bills The husband and wife do not get along-You will become the mediator between the couple it will lead to taking sides a losing proposition- A drama free work place is always best! Dangling carrot-if you do this job the next one will be better-Only look at what there offering at the present moment, if its not a good fit do not take the job for a job down the road…Its not worth chasing a job that might not happen! The Art of the Sale First things first selling your company is all about presentation. In meeting your clients for the first time show up with a collared golf shirt tucked in, belt, nice jeans, and newer shoes. Have a truck that a clean, no dents scratches, preferably washed the day you are going into your meeting. Have a leather note pad that is clean no dirt or paint visible. Show up 5 minutes early, if you’re running a little late shoot them a text to let them know. Treat the situation as if were going on a first date, best foot forward. As you introduce yourself give them a warm greeting, letting them know you are very interested in the work. Find out a little about them, hobbies, where they lived, etc etc. You are going to be working with them on a daily basis its nice to know what makes them tick. Having a good working relationship from the start is key forming a solid relationship. As the conversation progresses find out who wears the pants in the family…ie who’s the final decision maker. If its fits the wife, chances it is…..then kindly let the husband know happy wife happy life when their in a stall mate on an issue. As your looking at the project throw in some suggestions of what you think would look good from past experiences, this will get their attention that you have knowledge and want what’s best for them. If you see ways to save them money in their project let them know, money is a large point of the sale keep that in mind. Mention that you’re not the least expensive contractor but you’re not the most expensive either. Your customer satisfaction is your number one goal which leads to more time spent on keeping them happy. One happy customer will lead to another, one unsatisfied customer leads to work in the future. Bring up the fact the finishing the job on time is key goal to your business, many contractors run several jobs at once causing the jobs to be finished way behind schedule. You must stand out as having integrity, good morals, and the ability to problem solve to get the job. The clients will be testing you to see if you’re a good fit as well. Keep in mind as you take your notes that you must not forget anything they mention as it will come back before the job is completed…i.e. we mentioned that to you before we started the job! Take pictures of the proposed area for work, that way you can use it to better right your estimate. Let them know you will give them a detailed outline of when the job will be completed letting them see how long each phase will take and correlate it with your payment schedule. Before you leave their house let them know when the estimate will be sent to them. MAKE SURE YOU HIT THAT DEADLINE! Once you sent the email over with estimate make sure you get confirmation that they received it. Wait at least 2 days before checking with them, hopefully they contact you first! If they want negotiate the price, let them know that it is the best price that you can manage, its not worth losing money before you start. I closed 80% of the work I estimated by being very transparent and friendly. If you come off with an attitude charge double what the going rates are you might only land 1 out of 10 jobs as well as getting the reputation of being expensive. Bidding the job Looking up industry standards on pricing is what I would go buy for pricing. If you google the coat of any installation there will be a cost range for everything. Looking at the cost ranging from high to low I would tend to be in the middle. Some items might be low on the internet if this is the case use your best judgment not to lose money. Closing sales is key to success and keep the doors open for business. Being in the middle on pricing is key as most customers shy away from contractors that are extremely low or high on the price range. I tend not bid out hourly as wages do not pay for retirement. Bidding is better as customers no the exact price of the cost of construction. It also keeps the job moving quicker as time and material contractors take longer to complete projects…Thus costing the client more money and valuable time they could spend in their house. Using a Contract Using a detailed estimate tied to a contract covers your butt in 99% of the time. Having a piece of mind that every aspect of the job is covered in the estimate and contract protects both your company and the client. Key terms to include in your estimate/contract are. Have a schedule on excel showing the start dates and dates of each trade this will show the customer you are organized with time lines. If not written in the detailed in the estimate the item is excluded- This ensures if its not written down its not included. TBD- To be Determined- A phrase on a line item that has yet to had final decision of products or service needed. -The pricing will follow the decisions to be finalized Give out what your written warranty will be for parts and labor this changes state to state. If the homeowner provides the product than no warranty will be given on that particular item. In the contract have a start date and end date with the verbiage subject to change due to weather, product delivery, change orders Have a progress payment schedule to ensure the client understands when funding will be expected-Including if not payment is rendered service to the project will stop. Have written terms of how change orders will be charged-cost plus 20% or a set fee Make sure in your contract that arbitration is required versus going to court- This will save lawyer fees and going to court Many contracts can be found online and each state requires different contracts
Finding leads Finding leads is easy with the right network of people. I personally do not find working for friends or family members a good fit. Relationships get strained when money is involved, causing undue stress for both parties. I have listed a couple of ways to build a network or find work using the internet. Get in contact with realtor’s- Realtors have a big client base of homeowners who need work done Contact local Architects to see if they are working with any general contractors Leave some business cards at your local materials suppliers-Doowindow/lumber-many times clients will ask salesman for a referral. Join a business networking group- BNI is one of many Join a internet website lead generation company- Houzz, Angie’s List, Home Advisor, thumbtack, Yelp run an ad on craigslist Use a marketing company to market your website-This could become costly with little results Create a Facebook business page Create a Yelp business page
Building your subcontractor base Having 2 subcontractors for every trade, gives you the flexibility of completing jobs on time if the one the subcontractors is too busy at the time you need their service. Your subcontractors are the face of your business, choose owner run companies that are professional. Check to make sure there license are up to date..ie workman’s comp, liability insurance, state license. Choosing subcontractors with lettered vans, logoed t-shirts is s key to looking professional in the clients’ eyes. In the past I have gotten a lot of subcontractors for material supply shops, stopping by jobsites, researching the internet using Yelp, Home Advisor, etc etc. Once you get one good subcontractor ask them if they know any other trades they would recommend. One good subcontractor leads to another in most cases. The key to having a good group of subcontractors is to let them know that you are there to get help them get the job done. They do work for you but without them you are nothing…keep that in mind! Make them aware a clean jobsite is required at the end of everyday to ensure the proper safety for all parties including theirs! Over the years I have referred a lot of companies work when there is only 1 trade needed. Referring work to subcontractors is a good way to get top priority when you have work that needs to be completed ASAP. Timing is everything in times of emergency having a good group of subcontractors will make your business run smoothly. Pay your subcontractors immediately after performing work, this will make them feel appreciated! A happy subcontractor is one that will gladly go the extra mile for you knowing that there not just a number to your business! Buying lunch once a week for the jobsite is always a good token of appreciation!
Supervising In supervising any jobsite its key to monitor everything from materials on hand, weather, vehicle parking (if applicable), jobsite safety, and subcontractors’ workmanship. If you hired a professional there should be little supervision in the work being performed, on rare occasions a new hire might need some mentoring to get the results completed correctly. If you see a problem with there work address it with the worker directly, no need to call his boss…. building repour with the worker letting him know you got his back goes miles down the road! Checking in on the job first in the morning to answer any questions or changes that need to be conveyed and once in the afternoon to make sure all work be completed is done per construction industry standards. A job that is run blindly will have many more issues than one that is watched over. I have seen many jobs with no site supervision, leading to subpar quality work as well as safety hazards. Its better to be like an eagle than cluck like a turkey!
Working with the City/Inspectors On permitted jobs the city and site inspector will be a large part of how smoothly the job runs. Each phase of construction has an inspection allowing for the project to continue. Make sure your subcontractors are aware that the project is inspected before starting the job. The best way to stay on his good side is to provide a clean jobsite and having the job built to the highest standards possible. When having the site inspected be courteous to the inspector asking any questions or concerns you have with the work during the job. Being completely transparent will save you aggravation of problems down the road. The more he trust you the better if you seem sneaky or rude he will make your life a living nightmare! Many inspectors will have an attitude towards you….I suggest keeping quiet and doing what ever he wants….he’s the boss no need to get in a pissing match you will not win at. How to deal with irate customer Stay calm during any argument with an irate customer. Never raise your voice or show that you are bothered by their disgruntled behavior. If the customer is trying to get more from you than agreed upon stand your ground. Worst case scenario is you walk from the job, which in the long run be more of a loss for the client. I have only run into a couple of these clients; they are unreasonable and not worth losing sleep over a few dollars. Its best to terminate the relationship as it would be my best guess that a referral from this customer would not be one you wanted anyway. If you feel it was just a miscommunication on your end, take reasonability and remedy the problem. Taking accountability for your mistake will go a far way in their eyes and on future issues that arise. Prepping the homeowner pre-construction Before starting the job, it very important to give the homeowners a warning of what will happen during the construction process.
- All furniture in the proposed working area must be moved- I would recommend having the clients take care of this to limit the risk of damage to their belongings.
- There will be dust that will be in the house up to 3 months after construction-I would recommend hiring a construction cleaning company at the end of the job even so after it is cleaned dust will be present months after words.
- There will be conflicts between you in the homeowner at some course of the job. - You will do your best to eliminate them as quickly as they arise-i.e. material damages, miscommunication, job delays
- All decisions on materials must be made before the start of the job- this will eliminate job stoppage due to materials not being on site.
- All materials will be on site before commencement of job-
- Payment structures must be made per contract otherwise job will stop until payment rendered
- Cars are to be moved out of the driveway- Ensures ease of loading and unloading of materials/tools
- Give the specific hours that workers will be present- i.e. 7-3:30
- Determine what areas are allowed to be used as staging for tools/materials
- If animals are present in the home that they put outside or in a room during the day
- All valuables in the house are locked in safe
- Ask if using client’s household bathroom is okay or to bring in Porter Potty
- Being transparent as possible is key to keeping a great relationship with your client!
2023.06.09 22:56 mothertuna Saks Fifth Avenue - 15% off beauty
 | submitted by mothertuna to Sephora [link] [comments] |
2023.06.09 22:20 Dry_Debt3671 Justice for Jesse Sarey
For Immediate Release “Celebrating the Life of Jesse Sarey” Date: Sunday June 11th, 2023 Time: 3:30 PM - 6:30 PM Location: El Centro De La Raza 2524 16th Avenue South Seattle, WA 98144
Free/ Open to the Public outside in the Plaza
Join the Sarey Family for an uplifting day of reflections, music, performances and food as we celebrate the life of Jesse Sarey.
Sunrise July 10th, 1993 Sunset May 31st, 2019
4 Stolen Birthdays!
The Auburn Mayor, Police and City Council have been complicit in the murders of three men; Brian Scaman (2011), Isaiah Obet (2017) and Jesse Sarey (2019) who’s families have been intertwined forever by Officer Jeff Nelson.
They will never again be able to hug their mothers, fathers, know their daughter, hang out with their brothers and sisters, cousins, friends or become the light for their commUNITY they were destined to be.
We have an opportunity to use our collective voices to make justice a reality for all three of these families.
Jeff Nelson should be fired, indicted, and held accountable for his murders.
Currently Jeff Nelson has been arrested and charged for 2nd degree murder and 1st degree assault. He is on paid administrative house arrest pending the murder trial in Winter 2023. The family has been waiting since the 2020 arraignment.
“The rogue police officer who killed my foster son Jesse Sarey is facing trial ONLY because of the weight of the growing social movement against police brutality, in recent years. This criminal officer (like many officers) has been involved in killing and injuring others, prior to my son. He has already cost taxpayers $6.5 million. In spite of facing trial, he is on paid administrative leave, even though under house arrest." said Elaine Simons, foster mother of Jesse Sarey
We need community to turn out, turn up and be present during the murder trial.
WE WILL NOT REST UNTIL JESSE SAREY MURDER HAS ACCOUNTABILITY!
Our justice will be justice for Brian Scaman and Isaiah Obet. As well as set a precedent for other impacted families of police violence that resulted in the death of love ones.
This is no time to turn a blind eye...STAND UP!!!
Auburn Officer Jeff Nelson has been indicted for taking the life of Jesse Sarey -- the first police murder trial in Washington State in 30 years.
The Sarey Family will be joined by other local impacted families in solidarity and love. Including out of state families.
To get access to State VS Nelson court dates and zoom links contact: [email protected]
Please sign the petition https://chng.it/vqSrp5hRv9
Visit our web site: Justice4JesseSarey.info
In memory of Mads!
submitted by Dry_Debt3671 to Seattle [link] [comments]
Free/ Open to the Public outside in the Plaza
Join the Sarey Family for an uplifting day of reflections, music, performances and food as we celebrate the life of Jesse Sarey.
Sunrise July 10th, 1993 Sunset May 31st, 2019
4 Stolen Birthdays!
The Auburn Mayor, Police and City Council have been complicit in the murders of three men; Brian Scaman (2011), Isaiah Obet (2017) and Jesse Sarey (2019) who’s families have been intertwined forever by Officer Jeff Nelson.
They will never again be able to hug their mothers, fathers, know their daughter, hang out with their brothers and sisters, cousins, friends or become the light for their commUNITY they were destined to be.
We have an opportunity to use our collective voices to make justice a reality for all three of these families.
Jeff Nelson should be fired, indicted, and held accountable for his murders.
Currently Jeff Nelson has been arrested and charged for 2nd degree murder and 1st degree assault. He is on paid administrative house arrest pending the murder trial in Winter 2023. The family has been waiting since the 2020 arraignment.
“The rogue police officer who killed my foster son Jesse Sarey is facing trial ONLY because of the weight of the growing social movement against police brutality, in recent years. This criminal officer (like many officers) has been involved in killing and injuring others, prior to my son. He has already cost taxpayers $6.5 million. In spite of facing trial, he is on paid administrative leave, even though under house arrest." said Elaine Simons, foster mother of Jesse Sarey
We need community to turn out, turn up and be present during the murder trial.
WE WILL NOT REST UNTIL JESSE SAREY MURDER HAS ACCOUNTABILITY!
Our justice will be justice for Brian Scaman and Isaiah Obet. As well as set a precedent for other impacted families of police violence that resulted in the death of love ones.
This is no time to turn a blind eye...STAND UP!!!
Auburn Officer Jeff Nelson has been indicted for taking the life of Jesse Sarey -- the first police murder trial in Washington State in 30 years.
The Sarey Family will be joined by other local impacted families in solidarity and love. Including out of state families.
To get access to State VS Nelson court dates and zoom links contact: [email protected]
Please sign the petition https://chng.it/vqSrp5hRv9
Visit our web site: Justice4JesseSarey.info
In memory of Mads!
JusticeForJesseSarey
Justice4JesseSarey #JesseSarey
justiceforisaiahobet
justiceforbrianscaman
WashingtonState #StopAsianHate #StopAAPIHate #StopAPIHate #PoliceViolence #StopPoliceBrutality #EndPoliceViolence #PoliceBrutality #PoliceBrutalityMatters #CambodianAmerican #KhmerAmerican #EndPoliceTerror #BlackLivesMatter
TillWewin
MyAdvocates
2023.06.09 21:39 seeldoger47 [H] $500 Amazon GCs [W] 85% Western Union/BTC [H] PayPal, Cash App, Crypto, Apple Pay, or Venmo [W] All Your Gift Cards
You can download the WesternUnion app and send the payment from your phone and I will pay the fees.
Desktop Users: Comment on this post and Click here to start a trade App Users, please include the following in your PM (Remember to comment on this post as well):
- Type of card(s) and amount of each.
- What payment method you accept.
- How you acquired the GC and why you're getting rid of it.
I only have Steam as a substitute for cash payments in gift card trades.
| Want ↓ | Cash or a Gift Card ↓ | BTC ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| Apple | 60%4 | NA |
| Amazon.ca | 50% | 50% |
| Amazon.co.uk | 50% | 50% |
| Amazon.com | 70% | 55% |
| Amazon.de | 50% | 50% |
| Amazon.es | 50% | 50% |
| Amazon.fr | 50% | 50% |
| Amazon.it | 50% | 50% |
| Amazon.jp | 30% | 30% |
| Arrow Films | 65% | 60% |
| Barnes & Noble | 50% | 50% |
| Baskin Robbins | 60% | 60% |
| Best Buy | 60% | 60% |
| BJ's (not BJ's restaurant)4 | 60% | NA |
| Bloomingdales | 50% | 50% |
| Burger King4 | 60% | NA |
| Clothing Shops (Small Boutique) | contact me | contact me |
| Dell4 | 60% | NA |
| Delta gift cards4 | 65% | NA |
| Delta Sky Miles4 | PM me | NA |
| Delta Vouchers4 | 65% | NA |
| Dicks Sporting Goods 4 | PM me | NA |
| Disney Plus | PM me | PM me |
| DoorDash | 70%6 | NA |
| Dunkin Donuts4 | 60% | NA |
| eBay | 70% | 70% |
| Fandango4 | 10% | NA |
| Five Guys4 | 60% | NA |
| Gamestop | 60% | 60% |
| Gas Station Cards4 | PM me | NA |
| Grub Hub | 70%6 | NA |
| Gyft | 70% | 70% |
| Half Price Books | 50% | 50% |
| HBO4 | 70% | NA |
| iTunes4 | 60% | NA |
| J crew | 40% | 40% |
| JCPenney | 25% | 25% |
| Jersey Mike Subs4 | 60% | NA |
| KFC4 | 60% | NA |
| Khols | 30% | 30% |
| Macys | 35% | 35% |
| Magazines.com | 40% | 40% |
| McDonald's 4 | 60% | NA |
| Microsoft6 | 60% | NA |
| Moe’s Southwestern Grill4 | 60% | NA |
| Nintendo Eshop6 | 70% | NA |
| Nordstrom | 50% | 50% |
| Panera bread4 | 60% | NA |
| PSN6 | 60 | NA |
| PSN Plus 12 month4 | NA | NA |
| Saks Fifth Avenue | 50% | 50% |
| Sears | 50% | 50% |
| Sephora | 50% | 50% |
| Speedway4 | 80% | NA |
| Starbucks | 55% | 55% |
| Steam6 | 60% | NA |
| Subway 4 | PM me | NA |
| Taco Bell | 60% | NA |
| Target | 50% | 50% |
| Uber6 | 70% | NA |
| Urban Outfitters | 50% | 50% |
| Vudu4 | 50% | NA |
| Walmart | 60% | 60% |
| Wendys4 | 60% | NA |
| Xbox (gift cards)6 | 60% | NA |
| Xbox Game Pass Ultimate (12 month/6 month/3 month/1 month)6 | PM me | NA |
| Other Clothing Stores, Gas Stations, Grocery Stores, Restaurant, & Fast Food gift cards | PM me |
What I don’t buy:
Any fees are built into the price.
- Amazon.au
- Bass Pro Shop
- buffalo wild wing
- Canadian tire
- Cold Stone
- Dairy Queen
- Fanatics
- Google Play
- Hilton Honors
- Hot Topic
- iTunes from anywhere but the US
- Krispy Kreme
- old navy/gap/banana republic
- Patxi's pizza
- PSN Canada or UK
- publix
- Raceway
- Scheels
- Shell Gas Stations
- Spotify
- Tractor supply
- Xbox Canada or UK
- Xbox live gold
Selling
I have:$500 in Amazon (can be broken up) and am selling at
- 85%: WesternUnion
- 85%: btc
- 90%: Apple Pay or Chime
2023.06.09 21:39 seeldoger47 [H] $500 Amazon [W] 85% Western Union/BTC [H] PayPal, Cash App, Crypto, Chime, Apple Pay, or Venmo [W] Apple, Amazon (CA, Com, DE, ES, FR, IT, UK), B&N, Dunkin, eBay, Grub Hub, Gyft, iTunes, JCPenney, Microsoft, PSN, Steam, Target, Uber, Walmart, Xbox + more
You can download the WesternUnion app and send the payment from your phone and I will pay the fees.
Desktop Users: Comment on this post and Click here to start a trade App Users, please include the following in your PM (Remember to comment on this post as well):
- Type of card(s) and amount of each.
- What payment method you accept.
- How you acquired the GC and why you're getting rid of it.
I only have Steam as a substitute for cash payments in gift card trades.
| Want ↓ | Cash or a Gift Card ↓ | BTC ↓ |
|---|---|---|
| Apple | 60%4 | NA |
| Amazon.ca | 50% | 50% |
| Amazon.co.uk | 50% | 50% |
| Amazon.com | 70% | 55% |
| Amazon.de | 50% | 50% |
| Amazon.es | 50% | 50% |
| Amazon.fr | 50% | 50% |
| Amazon.it | 50% | 50% |
| Amazon.jp | 30% | 30% |
| Arrow Films | 65% | 60% |
| Barnes & Noble | 50% | 50% |
| Baskin Robbins | 60% | 60% |
| Best Buy | 60% | 60% |
| BJ's (not BJ's restaurant)4 | 60% | NA |
| Bloomingdales | 50% | 50% |
| Burger King4 | 60% | NA |
| Clothing Shops (Small Boutique) | contact me | contact me |
| Dell4 | 60% | NA |
| Delta gift cards4 | 65% | NA |
| Delta Sky Miles4 | PM me | NA |
| Delta Vouchers4 | 65% | NA |
| Dicks Sporting Goods 4 | PM me | NA |
| Disney Plus | PM me | PM me |
| DoorDash | 70%6 | NA |
| Dunkin Donuts4 | 60% | NA |
| eBay | 70% | 70% |
| Fandango4 | 10% | NA |
| Five Guys4 | 60% | NA |
| Gamestop | 60% | 60% |
| Gas Station Cards4 | PM me | NA |
| Grub Hub | 70%6 | NA |
| Gyft | 70% | 70% |
| Half Price Books | 50% | 50% |
| HBO4 | 70% | NA |
| iTunes4 | 60% | NA |
| J crew | 40% | 40% |
| JCPenney | 25% | 25% |
| Jersey Mike Subs4 | 60% | NA |
| KFC4 | 60% | NA |
| Khols | 30% | 30% |
| Macys | 35% | 35% |
| Magazines.com | 40% | 40% |
| McDonald's 4 | 60% | NA |
| Microsoft6 | 60% | NA |
| Moe’s Southwestern Grill4 | 60% | NA |
| Nintendo Eshop6 | 70% | NA |
| Nordstrom | 50% | 50% |
| Panera bread4 | 60% | NA |
| PSN6 | 60 | NA |
| PSN Plus 12 month4 | NA | NA |
| Saks Fifth Avenue | 50% | 50% |
| Sears | 50% | 50% |
| Sephora | 50% | 50% |
| Speedway4 | 80% | NA |
| Starbucks | 55% | 55% |
| Steam6 | 60% | NA |
| Subway 4 | PM me | NA |
| Taco Bell | 60% | NA |
| Target | 50% | 50% |
| Uber6 | 70% | NA |
| Urban Outfitters | 50% | 50% |
| Vudu4 | 50% | NA |
| Walmart | 60% | 60% |
| Wendys4 | 60% | NA |
| Xbox (gift cards)6 | 60% | NA |
| Xbox Game Pass Ultimate (12 month/6 month/3 month/1 month)6 | PM me | NA |
| Other Clothing Stores, Gas Stations, Grocery Stores, Restaurant, & Fast Food gift cards | PM me |
What I don’t buy:
Any fees are built into the price.
- Amazon.au
- Bass Pro Shop
- buffalo wild wing
- Canadian tire
- Cold Stone
- Dairy Queen
- Fanatics
- Google Play
- Hilton Honors
- Hot Topic
- iTunes from anywhere but the US
- Krispy Kreme
- old navy/gap/banana republic
- Patxi's pizza
- PSN Canada or UK
- publix
- Raceway
- Scheels
- Shell Gas Stations
- Spotify
- Tractor supply
- Xbox Canada or UK
- Xbox live gold
Selling
I have:$500 in Amazon (can be broken up) and am selling at
- 85%: WesternUnion
- 85%: btc
- 90%: Apple Pay or Chime
2023.06.09 19:47 mothertuna Saks Fifth Avenue - 15% off beauty
| | Lots of beauty on sale from Chantecaille, Laura Mercier, Make Beauty, Cle de Peau, Armani and more submitted by mothertuna to MUAontheCheap [link] [comments] |
2023.06.09 18:59 hodsct59 Belmont Park Choices 6-10-2023 Belmont Stakes Day
My normal maximum budget for any week of racing is around $400, which I am comfortable with losing should I not hit a race. While I personally do not like to lose that much any week, the only other options are to bet less money or pass the races entirely. Playing less money will cause me to far short of my monthly and/or yearly goals and not playing at all is like the saying goes "You have to be in it for any chance of winning." On big race weekends, I will budget more, not to spread out my risk anymore, but to bet more of the better races and fuller fields that comes around only so often. Good Luck and hopefully you can knock down a big score which is so much more enjoyable than trying to nickel and dime the tracks to death (never works long term).
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Race 1: Maiden Special Weight --- Purse $90,000 --- 3 YOs & Up F&M ---- 6 Furlongs Turf:
2) Get Respect (8-1) is making her first start of the year. However, with maidens, they do not have to be the fittest a trainer can get them because most are not anywhere near their full potential until after a few races of experience. This one has 7 works for her first start this year, the first two were leg stretchers, the next four were decent and has the look of a trainer trying to get horse fit and the last work, 3 days before scheduled start, simply an exercise to keep her happy until race day. 3x5 to Storm Cat.
6) Quiescent (15-1) has started twice this year, setting the pace to the top of the stretch before tiring slightly to finish third while losing the photo finish at the wire to the Brown entry just above her, then setting the pace for a half before tiring badly in her last race which obviously her first start of year took enough conditioning out of her that she was still tire when entered back despite one average work after that first start (better known as a bounce). Now she has one good work, indicating she is not tired now and expect a rebound in this start. 5x5 to Mr. Prospector but also has a crossing influence to Never Bend through the dam line of Arch on her sire side and thru the 3rd dam, Stiff Breeze, a daughter. Fifth dam, Whirl Right, is a full sister to 1941 U.S. TC winner Whirlaway.
3) Roman Goddess (12-1) has started once this year and stumbled at the start which basically eliminated her from having any chance to impact the race. She has five more works since that effort and most of them were designed only to give her some leg stretching exercise. 4x4 to Mr. Prospector & Danzig.
10) Cindylouwho (15-1) has started 4 times this year, with 2 third place finishes in 5 furlongs grass sprints her only board finishes and the starts on dirt with little effort put into each race. She now has 3 placings in 4 lifetime attempts on grass and only needs to produce a race similar to any of them to be a major factor against these. She has what looks like two good works since her last, but both came on the Palm Meadows training track which is one of the fastest training tracks in the nation and those works are average at best. However, based off her actual races, she fits with these. 4x3 to A.P. Indy, 5(C)x5(C)x4(F) to Northern Dancer, 5x4 to Mr Prospector, 5x5 to Secretariat & Roberto.
My Risks: $8 WP 2, $5 Ex Box 2-6, $1 Tri Box 2-3-6, $.20 Super Box 2-3-6-10, $1 Super Key 2 with 3-6-10 with 3-6-10 with 3-6-10. Total Risk $42.80.
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Race 2: Allowance --- Purse $80,000 --- 3 YOs & Up F&M NY Bred N/W $18K 1x or N/W 2 Races Lifetime --- 7 Furlongs Turf:
8) Silver Skillet (10-1) has one start this year which he chased the early pace for 6 furlongs before tiring, which is a typical first start back for most front runners after getting five months or longer break. Trainer put one easy or leg stretching type work in her since that start simply because he already saw her speed was still there in works prior to her first start back. This will be her first start on grass in her career. See a likely gate to wire effort for her against these. 5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Mr. Prospector.
6) Lisa's Vision (8-1) has started once this year where she sat mid-pack early edge herself up to the edge of being a serious contender into the stretch before flattening out and stalling. Again, this is a typical first start back for a horse with this running style and you should expect improvement this out. Her last two efforts just before the break in races with same class, distance, and surface, she was nearing an effort to move on to the next condition or better races. Trainer has put 5 more works in her since her last effort, an easy work followed by 4 decent to good works. If she gets a little help with a pressured early pace which she did not get in her first start back, she could easily win this. Contender. 5x3 to Storm Cat.
7)Royal Dancer (12-1) has one start this year where she was eyeing the early pace as two ahead of her duel for a quarter, then the leader shook free and open a clear lead, forcing this one to pick up the chase much earlier than preferred, but then chase the loose leader to the top of the stretch before tiring after breaking from the 12th post, a slot that has very little chance to win in NY grass sprints. Trainer has put 5 more works in her since that effort, mostly leg stretching type works but a couple that could prove very helpful, including a bullet work five days before this start. She has two NY bred stakes placings on grass before she broke her maiden. Has some talent. 4(C)x5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer, 5x4 to Fappiano.
1)I'mhavingamoment (5-1) has four starts this year, the first race was a state bred stakes race which she was overmatched against coming off a maiden win, then finished second and then 2 thirds after a drop down in class and a slow rise back up into condition allowance in her last start while also her first effort on grass. Has two works since that last effort, a good work followed by a decent and useful work. 5x4 to Danzig, 5x5 to Cyane, 5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer. Her 5th dam is U.S. Champion Filly, Tempted, who has a stakes race named in her honor for 3 YO fillies.
My Risk: $6 WP 6, $5 Ex Box 6-8, $1 Tri Box 6-7-8, $.30 Super Box 1-6-7-8, $1 Super Key 8 with 1-6-7 with 1-6-7 with 1-6-7. Total Risk: $41.20.
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Race 3: Pass on betting.
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Race 4: Allowance --- Purse $85,000 --- 3 YOs & Up N/W $18K 1x or N/W 2 lifetime --- 7 Furlongs:
4) Bezos (50-1) has started 4 times this year, has flashed front running speed in all of them but then tired badly. In his last start, he carried his speed further than he has all year long or since he was last in his best form. This type wins only when they can control the early pace and he looks like he found a spot where he can do just that. Most of these horses have not tried stakes races in their career but the few that have has done so against young 2 YOs or 3 YOs, except this one when he set the pace in a G3 and a listed stake race against proven older horses. In addition, he will carry light race in the field due to his jockey receiving a 7 lbs. apprentice break. May seen foolish but will take a shot with this one with the speed to top of the stretch angle I have used successful plenty of times.
9) Twelth Man (6-1) has started three times this year with a second in his first start his only board finish this year. However, his current form cycle began with his last start last year after a 7-month break and he returned in close to same physical form as when he was stopped on. After a couple of pretty good efforts, he had a couple of not so good efforts. He is working on his third race since a good effort, and this is an angle I read about years ago that suggested betting horses back in their third start after a win if next two starts were not as good as his winning effort, but tweaked this angle to include all horses that gave a solid effort because it worked more often that way and with higher odds than the third race after a win.
2) Shipsational (15-1) has started 4 times this year with a second in his third start back as his only board finish this year. Next two races were poor and would normally be enough to consider a horse has tailed off his best form. But he has 5 works since that last effort, all of them decent to good that were also likely very useful. His current form cycle began in October last year when he came off almost a 7 month break after a second and third effort in a G2 & G3 stake races that obviously knocked him off his best form.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 4-9, $1 Tri Box 2-4-9, $2 Quinella 2-4, $2 Quinella 4-9. Total Risk $20.00.
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Race 5: Poker Stakes(G3) --- Purse $200,000 --- 4 YOs & Up ---- One Mile Turf:
3) Mackinnon (15-1) is making his first start of the year. Has six works to prepare for this start but also a trainer that brings his trainees back in top form often. 4x5 to Storm Cat.
1)Chez Pierre (1-1) threw easily a career best in last. A bounce candidate for sure. Under no circumstance would I accept 1-1 odds or less on a horse whose biggest win in the U.S. before his last race was a listed stake and has shown he is vulnerable against this class.
5) Anaconda (8-1) looks in best shape of the rest in a weak field for a G3 stakes race.
My Risk: $8 Exacta Straight 3-1, $1 Tri Box 1-3-5, $6 Tri Straight 3-1-5. Total Risk $20.00.
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Race 6: Brooklyn Stakes(G2) --- Purse $250,000 ---- 4 YOs & Up --- 1 1/2 Miles:
6) Forewarned (20-1) has five starts with one win and one third his placings this year. I normally try to find horses that run late in these marathon type races, and he looks like he maybe can though this far is a question mark for him like every other horse in this field.
11) Code Runner (50-1) was originally trained by Asmussen and showed a little ability but not enough to impact graded stakes races. Horse was eventually put in hands of a trainer that has shown no ability or idea of how to properly prepare or get a horse fit. So, his race record looks much worse than it should and in a race like this, anything can and usually does happen.
9) Calibrate (10-1) won a stakes race at this distance two back while finishing in front of a couple of these, then was kept wide by the jockey throughout in his last start when beaten by several of these (per equibase footnotes). Switch of trainers and two good works since his last start. Which one will show up today? Guess right and you could make a decent score.
7) Warrant (5-2) won his last start under a drive after stalking and putting only front runner away heading into the stretch. Will likely have more pace to run at in here, so if jockey times his move slightly later, he will have a better chance of holding the late runners safe. A move a little early, like his last, likely results in a board finish only. 3 works since his last start, an easy leg stretching type work followed by two good works suggests he will be antsy to go earlier than usual.
My Risks: $4 Exacta Box 6-11, $1 Tri Box 6-9-11, $.30 Super Box 6-7-9-11. Total Risk $21.20. (a wild guess).
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Race 7: Ogden Phipps S(G1) --- Purse $500,000 --- 4 YOs & Up F&M ---- 1 1/16 Mile:
1)Pass The Champagne (8-1) ran a monster type race when just getting caught at the wire by the eventual Ky Oaks winner in the Ashland Stakes in her very first start against winners two years ago. However, that race not only knock her off form, but she needed almost a year off after a dull effort in the Oaks, then won an O/C race in her only start before taking another year break. A typical scenario of being asked to do too much too soon. She has four starts this year but in her last start, she suggested she has returned to her best form. Two useful works since her last start and she is sitting on go. 3x4 to Mr. Prospector, 4(C)x5(C)x5(C) to Northern Dancer.
4) Secret Oath (2-1) has started three times this year, winning her first start and then just missing in both of her next two starts, finishing 2nd in each race. Her Ky Oaks win remains her only G1 triumph through she has placed 2nd or 3rd in six more G1 races, all in her last 10 starts. 4x3 to Fappiano, 5(C)x5(C)x4(F) to Mr. Prospector.
2) Search Results (4-1) has started once this year and finishing third after trying the length of the stretch to get by the top two with no results. She has three works since that start, a good work followed by two useful works. Complete outcross in her first five generations. However, 8th dam, Iron Maiden, a daughter of War Admiral, produced 1957 Ky Derby winner Iron Liege and is 2nd dam of 1955 Ky Derby winner, Swaps.
6) Clairiere (6-5) has started twice this year, finishing second in the first start and then turning the tables on that rival in their next start. Both again shows up for the next major test for older females and either one could win without it being a major shock. She has 5 works since her last start, 2 easy leg stretching type works followed by two good and useful works and then another leg stretching type work 6 days before scheduled start. 3x4 to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to Northern Dancer.
My Risks $5 Ex Box 1-4, $1 Tri Box 1-2-4, $3 Tri Key 1 with 2-4 with 2-4, $2 Super Key 1 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6. Total Risk $34.00.
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Race 8: Woody Stephens Stakes(G1) --- Purse $400,000 --- 3 YOs ---- 7 Furlongs:
2) Gun Pilot (20-1) has started five times this year with 1 win and 2 seconds his best finish. In his last start, lasix was removed from him for the second time and for the second time he ran a flat race, especially in the stretch but this time it was an even race where his late kick was missing. It will be interesting to see what he does when lasix is remove for the second race in a row for the first time of his career. He has four works since that start, an easy leg stretching work followed by 2 bullet 5 furlongs works then another blowout type work 5 days before his scheduled start. Sire, Gun Runner, was a late developer mostly because he was thrown against top competition that set him back a few months, but trainer has brought this one along more slowly and waiting for the light to click on for him. 4x3 to Storm Cat, 4x4 to Quiet American, 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Fappiano. His 5th dam, Ocean's Answer, is a full sister to Storm Bird who developed her own important line and is named a Reine-de-Course mare because of her influence on the breed.
13) Drew's Gold (8-1) has started four times in his career, winning all 4 starts, including 3 this year. Now, he will get the acid test to find out just how good he might be. Many of you probably do not know this trainer, but he started his training career in Southern California and a few years later was sending horses back & forth to compete in Florida and California. But he, like several others, closed their California barns due to workers compensation laws that cause many good barns to struggle, then practically disappeared for a decade before resurfacing again in Kentucky & then NY. He has one workout since his last start, a bullet work 10 days before scheduled start. Contender. 5x4 to Storm Bird, 5x5 to Northern Dancer, Secretariat, & Blushing Groom. His dam line traces back to La Troienne which simply means this is a dam line influenced by Domino as 10 of her 11 daughters and one son was bred to Domino line sires.
11) Victory Formation (10-1) has started 3 times this year, winning a listed stakes in his first start followed by a poor effort in a G2 stakes race and then leading until deep stretch before finishing 3rd in another listed stakes. However, if you look at the distance of all three races (1 mile, 1 1/8 mile and 1 1/8) and then you look at his dam line, you will see his problem. His 2nd dam is a daughter of a solid sprinter and good sprinting sire, 4th dam, White Jasmine, is a granddaughter of Crimson Satan and his 6th dam, Sister Satan, is a 1/2 sister to Crimson Satan. Crimson Satan hails from the Domino sire line who was best known by how fast he was sprinting. He has four works since his last start, the first two good works followed by 2 decent works where trainer looked intent on trying to get him to rate by slowing his works down, something he did for the first time. 5x3 to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to In Reality, 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Seattle Slew.
4) General Jim (7-2) has started three times this year, finishing unplaced in his first start though blocked most of the stretch run, then winning his next two starts in a G3 and then a G2 stakes races. He has three works since his last start, a leg stretching type work, then a good work, followed by another leg stretching type work six days before scheduled start. Looks as ready as any in here to me. Outcross in his first 5 generations but has plenty of Mr. Prospector & Northern Dancer influences on both sides.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 2-13, $1 Tri Box 2-11-13, $.30 Super Box 2-4-11-13, $1 Super Key 13 with 2-4-11 with 2-4-11 with 2-4-11. Total Risks $29.20.
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Race 9: Jaipur Stakes (G1) --- Purse $400,000 ---- 3 YOs & Up --- 6 Furlongs Turf:
5) Dr, Zempf (8-1) has started twice this year with his first start being a win in an O/C race on a GP turf course that played much faster this year than normal. Then tried G1 stakes company in his next out, set most of the pace to the top of the stretch before tiring at one mile on Keeneland's grass course. Believe he will enjoy the cutback to 6 furlongs. 3x4 to Machiavellian but sire line and broodmare sire line flows back into Northern Dancer.
13) Front Run The Fed (30-1) has started once this year in an allowance race, was near the back early, then started his rally soon after a half was complete and came with a rush in the stretch and was up and clear in time for the win. Has two leg stretching type works since that start. The stretch-out to six furlongs should suit him even more but will need to avoid trouble for best opportunity. 4x4 to Rahy, 4x5 to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to Roberto.
10) Big Invasion (6-1) has two starts this year, winning his first start in a listed stakes at 5F on grass, then finishing unplaced in a G2 stakes race at 5 1/2 furlongs on grass but had trouble near the eight pole that likely caused him a better finish. Has 2 decent and useful works since his last start. 5x4 to Mr. Prospector. His 5th dam, Really Blue, is an unraced full sister to 1969 G1 Ky Derby & Preakness winner Majestic Prince and 2nd dam of 1998 Ky Derby & Preakness winner, Real Quiet.
6) Ice Chocolat (30-1) has three starts this year, the first to at 5 1/2 furlongs on grass and he finished unplaced in both of them, then switched to the AWT and stretched out to six furlongs when he edged closer to the leaders in the stretch run but a closing late kick was lacking. Now his fourth start of the year and one good work since his last start should help him find that needed punch late. 4(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Northern Dancer, 5(C)x4(F)x 4(F) to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to Special.
My Risk $5 Ex Box 5-13, $ 1 Tri Box 5-10-13, $.30 Super Box 5-6-10-13, $1 Super Key 5 with 6-10-13 with 6-10-13 with 6-10-13. Total Risk $29.20.
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Race 10: Metropolitan H(G1) --- Purse $1,000,000 --- 3 YOs & Up One Mile:
6) Zandon (5-1) has started once this year and finished second in what obviously trainer considered a prep for this start. The total purse for that race was $175K and no real help in raising a stallion's value, the purse for this race is $1M along with a likely raise in a stallion's value. He has three decent to good works since that effort and follows exactly the type of works he put in the horse before that race. 4x5 to Mr. Prospector.
2) Slow Down Andy (10-1) is making his first start of the year. He has 8 works to prepare for this start, the first 2 blowout type 3 furlongs works followed by 3 4 furlongs works that were simply leg stretching type works then a good 5 furlongs work and 2 good six furlongs works, none of them too fast to suggest he may leave his race in his works but not too slow to get no help from them. For reference, you can look how he brought Goldencents back off a 7-month break after winning the previous year BC Dirt Mile and finished 2nd to Palace Malice in the Met Mile. The favorite beat him last year in the BC Dirt Mile but his trip in the race (stumbled at the start, then became rank when rushed) before heading to biggest race of his life was a major reason why and usually knocks top horses off their best form. 5x4 to Mr. Prospector.
1)Cody's Wish (7-5) has made one start this year and made it a decisive win in a G1 stakes but everything in there were not of G1 quality except him which made an average win look like a romp. These are much tougher and trainer is acting concerned by how fast he has worked the horse since that race. 3 blistering fast works. Normally, horses that works this hard in works are tosses for me but I have not seen Mott put these types of works into his trainees in decades (thought he learned the hard way that super-fast works rarely works). He might run away and hide but the opposite happens way more than not. Am using caution. 3(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Mr. Prospector.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 2-6, $3 Tri Straight 2-6 with 2-6 with 1, $5 Tri Key 6 with 1-2 with 1-2. Total Risk $26.00.
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Race 11: Manhattan Stakes(G1) --- Purse $750,000 --- 4 YOs & Up --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf:
3) Warren Point (5-1) has one start in the U.S. this year where he was near the back early closed with a rush and taking a brief lead into the stretch before hanging and dropping back to fifth at 3-5 at 1 3/8 mile on the grass. Horse has shown he would much prefer the 1 1/4M distance as all 4 of his grass wins have come at that distance and his one 1 1/2-mile win was on the AWT. He has three works since that start, a leg stretching type work on dirt followed by two bullet works on grass around the dogs. 4x4 to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to Northern Dancer, but also has a crossing to Never Bend through his grandsons Shirley Heights and Irish River.
10) Highest Honors (20-1) has one start this year where he was near the back early, was in a grind mold throughout the race but never really reach serious contention to finish 4th. Trainer has put 11 works in him, the first 5 works a little faster than he normally puts into his trainees, then gave the horse 13 days before returning to the work tab for six more weekly works, all of them good and decent though again faster than what he usually asks from his trainees. Likely as ready as he can be without a race in between some of these works. 4(C)x5(C)x4(F) to Mr. Prospector, 5x3 to Northern Dancer.
5) Soldier Rising (12-1) has one start this year where he sat mid-pack early, then eased back to last nearing the far turn while he waited for others to offer their best move, then came with a rush down the stretch to finish 2nd though no threat to winner who got away while he waited. Has 2 works since that race, a bullet work followed by a leg stretching work 6 days before scheduled start, both on grass around the dogs. 3x4 to Sadler's Wells & Danehill, 4(C)x5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer, 5x5 to Special.
1)So High (50-1) has three starts this year and has not placed yet this year though he has carry his speed to the top of the stretch in each race. This race is lacking on front runners who has shown ability to beat good horses but this one will likely be the last one to stop. He has run respectable in a G1 stakes race last year at 1 3/8 miles but was never going to beat Channel Cat who won several big G1 grass stakes in his career. 4x5 to Northern Dancer, 5x5 to Northern Dancer.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 3-10, $1 Tri Box 3-5-10, $.20 Super Box 1-3-5-10, $.60 Super Key 3 with 1-5-10 with 1-5-10 with 1-5-10, $6 Super Straight 3-10-5-1. Total Risk $30.00.
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Race 12: Belmont Stakes(G1) --- $1,500,000 --- 3 YOs --- 1 1/2 Mile:
1)Tapit Shoes (20-1) Has three starts this year, the first two in o/c races where he finished 4th, then 3rd and then finished 2nd (by a head) in a stakes race at OP that offered an all fees paid to the winner to enter the Preakness S. But before that start, trainer had him under consideration for a start in the Blue Grass S by working him three times at Keeneland including on the day of the race but opted to wait while he tried to qualify Verifying for the derby. He worked again on Lexington Stakes Day which suggests that race was also under consideration before deciding on the race he did race in. Since that near miss, he has 4 more good works and this horse is sitting on a big effort. 4(C)x5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Mr. Prospector but has a Seattle Slew crossing in the sire line and as grandsire of the 4th dam, Trithenia.
7) Hit Show (10-1) has started three times this year, winning a G3 stakes in his first start, then missing a G2 win by a nose when second followed by a fifth in the Ky Derby after getting caught in the melee near the rail turning into the stretch. Has three works since that start, a leg stretching type work followed by a good work and them another leg stretching type work one week before scheduled start. 4x5 to Fappiano, 5x5 to Mr. Prospector.
8) Angel Of Empire (7-2) has three starts this year, finishing 2nd in a listed stakes then winning his next 2 starts in a G2 and a G1 stakes races following by a fast closing third in the Ky Derby. He has three works since his last start, a useful work followed by two very good works but not too fast that it takes anything out of him. 4x5 to Miswaki, 5x4 to Mr. Prospector.
3) Tapit Thrice (3-1) has 4 starts this year, winning his first three starts in an o/c race, then a G3 win followed by a G1 win. In his last start in the Ky Derby, he was never able to get involved because his Blue Grass win caused him to use to much fitness trying to catch a speed type on Keeneland's notorious speed favoring track. A blunder his trainer makes almost every year that has caused him several derby wins. He has three works since that race, a useful one followed by a good work and then a leg stretching type work one week before scheduled start. 3x4 to A.P. Indy & Unbridled.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 1-7, $1 Tri Box 1-7-8, $4 Tri Key 1 with 7-8 with 7-8, $.30 Super Box 1-3-7-8, $1 Super Key 1 with 3-7-8 with 3-7-8 with 3-7-8. Total Risk $37.20.
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Race 13: Allowance --- Purse $80,000 ---- 3 YOs & Up NY Bred N/W $18K 1x or N/W 2 Lifetime --- 1 1/16 Mile Turf:
9) Curly Larry And Mo (8-1) has started three times this year and has not placed. However, all three starts came against open bred and he should relish the return to NY bred foes. He has no works since his last race but expect him to set the early pace and play a catch me if you can game, much like he did in last year's one mile BC Juvenile Turf S. Complete outcross in his first 5 generations but has a Caro crossing in the sire line and in the broodmare sire line as sire of the dam of Maria's Mon, who is the broodmare sire. Also has Crafty Admiral influence through Danzig and Crafty Admiral himself as the sire of the 4th dam, Won't Tell You, dam of Affirmed.
6) Mighty Atlas (30-1) has started twice this year, the first in a state bred o/c race where he trailed for a half mile then put in a run to get into contention into the stretch but could not chase down the gate to wire winner at one mile on dirt. Next start was in a state bred allowance, also at one mile on dirt, he never got involved after two works just before that race were on the dull side also, indicating he regressed slightly off that first effort. Now has two more works since his last start, a good work followed by a leg stretching but useful work and will now make the first grass start of his career. Good shot at upsetting this field. 5x2 to Capote with crossing help from the influential broodmare Alanesian.
8) Barrel Of Quests (15-1) has started twice this year, the first which he made a move to get into contention going into the far turn but had no further response in his first start in seven months in an open bred condition allowance race, as should be expected. He then shipped back to NY and was entered in a state bred allowance and cut back to a mile on grass when he ran an even race but again had no response in the stretch run. Will likely keep moving forward and is not far off his best race, so any improvement off his last likely results in a board finish. Complete outcross in his first 5 generations but has plenty of Domino blood on both sides of pedigree.
2) Let's Go Big Blue (4-1) will be making his first start of the year. However, last year, hew broke his maiden in his first start, then his next three starts came against open bred stakes horses, and he held his own in the first two before by far the worst race of his career when blinkers were added. That last experience did not help, and trainer will remove the blinkers for this start, and he will go with first time lasix. He has six works for this start, the first 4 were leg stretching type works followed by 2 good works. Will be tough to deny if he comes back anywhere close to the fitness he had when he took a break. 4x4 to Al Hattab.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 6-9, $1 Tri Box 6-8-9, $.30 Super Box 2-6-8-9, $1 Super Key 6 with 2-8-9 with 2-8-9 with 2-8-9. Total Risk $29.20.
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Race 5 $3 Triple Play: 3 with 5-10 with 3-10. Total Risk $12.00
Race 7 $1 P6: 1 with 2 with 5,10 with 2,6 with 3 with 1,7. Total Risk $8.00.
Race 8 $.50 Mandatory P5: 2 with 5,10, with 2,6 with 3,10 with 1,7. Total Risk $8.00.
Race 9 $.50 Late P5: 5,10 with 6 with 3 with 1,7,8 with 2,6,9. Total Risk $9.00.
Total Risks All Bets: $397.00.
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Race 1: Maiden Special Weight --- Purse $90,000 --- 3 YOs & Up F&M ---- 6 Furlongs Turf:
2) Get Respect (8-1) is making her first start of the year. However, with maidens, they do not have to be the fittest a trainer can get them because most are not anywhere near their full potential until after a few races of experience. This one has 7 works for her first start this year, the first two were leg stretchers, the next four were decent and has the look of a trainer trying to get horse fit and the last work, 3 days before scheduled start, simply an exercise to keep her happy until race day. 3x5 to Storm Cat.
6) Quiescent (15-1) has started twice this year, setting the pace to the top of the stretch before tiring slightly to finish third while losing the photo finish at the wire to the Brown entry just above her, then setting the pace for a half before tiring badly in her last race which obviously her first start of year took enough conditioning out of her that she was still tire when entered back despite one average work after that first start (better known as a bounce). Now she has one good work, indicating she is not tired now and expect a rebound in this start. 5x5 to Mr. Prospector but also has a crossing influence to Never Bend through the dam line of Arch on her sire side and thru the 3rd dam, Stiff Breeze, a daughter. Fifth dam, Whirl Right, is a full sister to 1941 U.S. TC winner Whirlaway.
3) Roman Goddess (12-1) has started once this year and stumbled at the start which basically eliminated her from having any chance to impact the race. She has five more works since that effort and most of them were designed only to give her some leg stretching exercise. 4x4 to Mr. Prospector & Danzig.
10) Cindylouwho (15-1) has started 4 times this year, with 2 third place finishes in 5 furlongs grass sprints her only board finishes and the starts on dirt with little effort put into each race. She now has 3 placings in 4 lifetime attempts on grass and only needs to produce a race similar to any of them to be a major factor against these. She has what looks like two good works since her last, but both came on the Palm Meadows training track which is one of the fastest training tracks in the nation and those works are average at best. However, based off her actual races, she fits with these. 4x3 to A.P. Indy, 5(C)x5(C)x4(F) to Northern Dancer, 5x4 to Mr Prospector, 5x5 to Secretariat & Roberto.
My Risks: $8 WP 2, $5 Ex Box 2-6, $1 Tri Box 2-3-6, $.20 Super Box 2-3-6-10, $1 Super Key 2 with 3-6-10 with 3-6-10 with 3-6-10. Total Risk $42.80.
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Race 2: Allowance --- Purse $80,000 --- 3 YOs & Up F&M NY Bred N/W $18K 1x or N/W 2 Races Lifetime --- 7 Furlongs Turf:
8) Silver Skillet (10-1) has one start this year which he chased the early pace for 6 furlongs before tiring, which is a typical first start back for most front runners after getting five months or longer break. Trainer put one easy or leg stretching type work in her since that start simply because he already saw her speed was still there in works prior to her first start back. This will be her first start on grass in her career. See a likely gate to wire effort for her against these. 5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Mr. Prospector.
6) Lisa's Vision (8-1) has started once this year where she sat mid-pack early edge herself up to the edge of being a serious contender into the stretch before flattening out and stalling. Again, this is a typical first start back for a horse with this running style and you should expect improvement this out. Her last two efforts just before the break in races with same class, distance, and surface, she was nearing an effort to move on to the next condition or better races. Trainer has put 5 more works in her since her last effort, an easy work followed by 4 decent to good works. If she gets a little help with a pressured early pace which she did not get in her first start back, she could easily win this. Contender. 5x3 to Storm Cat.
7)Royal Dancer (12-1) has one start this year where she was eyeing the early pace as two ahead of her duel for a quarter, then the leader shook free and open a clear lead, forcing this one to pick up the chase much earlier than preferred, but then chase the loose leader to the top of the stretch before tiring after breaking from the 12th post, a slot that has very little chance to win in NY grass sprints. Trainer has put 5 more works in her since that effort, mostly leg stretching type works but a couple that could prove very helpful, including a bullet work five days before this start. She has two NY bred stakes placings on grass before she broke her maiden. Has some talent. 4(C)x5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer, 5x4 to Fappiano.
1)I'mhavingamoment (5-1) has four starts this year, the first race was a state bred stakes race which she was overmatched against coming off a maiden win, then finished second and then 2 thirds after a drop down in class and a slow rise back up into condition allowance in her last start while also her first effort on grass. Has two works since that last effort, a good work followed by a decent and useful work. 5x4 to Danzig, 5x5 to Cyane, 5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer. Her 5th dam is U.S. Champion Filly, Tempted, who has a stakes race named in her honor for 3 YO fillies.
My Risk: $6 WP 6, $5 Ex Box 6-8, $1 Tri Box 6-7-8, $.30 Super Box 1-6-7-8, $1 Super Key 8 with 1-6-7 with 1-6-7 with 1-6-7. Total Risk: $41.20.
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Race 3: Pass on betting.
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Race 4: Allowance --- Purse $85,000 --- 3 YOs & Up N/W $18K 1x or N/W 2 lifetime --- 7 Furlongs:
4) Bezos (50-1) has started 4 times this year, has flashed front running speed in all of them but then tired badly. In his last start, he carried his speed further than he has all year long or since he was last in his best form. This type wins only when they can control the early pace and he looks like he found a spot where he can do just that. Most of these horses have not tried stakes races in their career but the few that have has done so against young 2 YOs or 3 YOs, except this one when he set the pace in a G3 and a listed stake race against proven older horses. In addition, he will carry light race in the field due to his jockey receiving a 7 lbs. apprentice break. May seen foolish but will take a shot with this one with the speed to top of the stretch angle I have used successful plenty of times.
9) Twelth Man (6-1) has started three times this year with a second in his first start his only board finish this year. However, his current form cycle began with his last start last year after a 7-month break and he returned in close to same physical form as when he was stopped on. After a couple of pretty good efforts, he had a couple of not so good efforts. He is working on his third race since a good effort, and this is an angle I read about years ago that suggested betting horses back in their third start after a win if next two starts were not as good as his winning effort, but tweaked this angle to include all horses that gave a solid effort because it worked more often that way and with higher odds than the third race after a win.
2) Shipsational (15-1) has started 4 times this year with a second in his third start back as his only board finish this year. Next two races were poor and would normally be enough to consider a horse has tailed off his best form. But he has 5 works since that last effort, all of them decent to good that were also likely very useful. His current form cycle began in October last year when he came off almost a 7 month break after a second and third effort in a G2 & G3 stake races that obviously knocked him off his best form.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 4-9, $1 Tri Box 2-4-9, $2 Quinella 2-4, $2 Quinella 4-9. Total Risk $20.00.
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Race 5: Poker Stakes(G3) --- Purse $200,000 --- 4 YOs & Up ---- One Mile Turf:
3) Mackinnon (15-1) is making his first start of the year. Has six works to prepare for this start but also a trainer that brings his trainees back in top form often. 4x5 to Storm Cat.
1)Chez Pierre (1-1) threw easily a career best in last. A bounce candidate for sure. Under no circumstance would I accept 1-1 odds or less on a horse whose biggest win in the U.S. before his last race was a listed stake and has shown he is vulnerable against this class.
5) Anaconda (8-1) looks in best shape of the rest in a weak field for a G3 stakes race.
My Risk: $8 Exacta Straight 3-1, $1 Tri Box 1-3-5, $6 Tri Straight 3-1-5. Total Risk $20.00.
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Race 6: Brooklyn Stakes(G2) --- Purse $250,000 ---- 4 YOs & Up --- 1 1/2 Miles:
6) Forewarned (20-1) has five starts with one win and one third his placings this year. I normally try to find horses that run late in these marathon type races, and he looks like he maybe can though this far is a question mark for him like every other horse in this field.
11) Code Runner (50-1) was originally trained by Asmussen and showed a little ability but not enough to impact graded stakes races. Horse was eventually put in hands of a trainer that has shown no ability or idea of how to properly prepare or get a horse fit. So, his race record looks much worse than it should and in a race like this, anything can and usually does happen.
9) Calibrate (10-1) won a stakes race at this distance two back while finishing in front of a couple of these, then was kept wide by the jockey throughout in his last start when beaten by several of these (per equibase footnotes). Switch of trainers and two good works since his last start. Which one will show up today? Guess right and you could make a decent score.
7) Warrant (5-2) won his last start under a drive after stalking and putting only front runner away heading into the stretch. Will likely have more pace to run at in here, so if jockey times his move slightly later, he will have a better chance of holding the late runners safe. A move a little early, like his last, likely results in a board finish only. 3 works since his last start, an easy leg stretching type work followed by two good works suggests he will be antsy to go earlier than usual.
My Risks: $4 Exacta Box 6-11, $1 Tri Box 6-9-11, $.30 Super Box 6-7-9-11. Total Risk $21.20. (a wild guess).
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Race 7: Ogden Phipps S(G1) --- Purse $500,000 --- 4 YOs & Up F&M ---- 1 1/16 Mile:
1)Pass The Champagne (8-1) ran a monster type race when just getting caught at the wire by the eventual Ky Oaks winner in the Ashland Stakes in her very first start against winners two years ago. However, that race not only knock her off form, but she needed almost a year off after a dull effort in the Oaks, then won an O/C race in her only start before taking another year break. A typical scenario of being asked to do too much too soon. She has four starts this year but in her last start, she suggested she has returned to her best form. Two useful works since her last start and she is sitting on go. 3x4 to Mr. Prospector, 4(C)x5(C)x5(C) to Northern Dancer.
4) Secret Oath (2-1) has started three times this year, winning her first start and then just missing in both of her next two starts, finishing 2nd in each race. Her Ky Oaks win remains her only G1 triumph through she has placed 2nd or 3rd in six more G1 races, all in her last 10 starts. 4x3 to Fappiano, 5(C)x5(C)x4(F) to Mr. Prospector.
2) Search Results (4-1) has started once this year and finishing third after trying the length of the stretch to get by the top two with no results. She has three works since that start, a good work followed by two useful works. Complete outcross in her first five generations. However, 8th dam, Iron Maiden, a daughter of War Admiral, produced 1957 Ky Derby winner Iron Liege and is 2nd dam of 1955 Ky Derby winner, Swaps.
6) Clairiere (6-5) has started twice this year, finishing second in the first start and then turning the tables on that rival in their next start. Both again shows up for the next major test for older females and either one could win without it being a major shock. She has 5 works since her last start, 2 easy leg stretching type works followed by two good and useful works and then another leg stretching type work 6 days before scheduled start. 3x4 to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to Northern Dancer.
My Risks $5 Ex Box 1-4, $1 Tri Box 1-2-4, $3 Tri Key 1 with 2-4 with 2-4, $2 Super Key 1 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6 with 2-4-6. Total Risk $34.00.
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Race 8: Woody Stephens Stakes(G1) --- Purse $400,000 --- 3 YOs ---- 7 Furlongs:
2) Gun Pilot (20-1) has started five times this year with 1 win and 2 seconds his best finish. In his last start, lasix was removed from him for the second time and for the second time he ran a flat race, especially in the stretch but this time it was an even race where his late kick was missing. It will be interesting to see what he does when lasix is remove for the second race in a row for the first time of his career. He has four works since that start, an easy leg stretching work followed by 2 bullet 5 furlongs works then another blowout type work 5 days before his scheduled start. Sire, Gun Runner, was a late developer mostly because he was thrown against top competition that set him back a few months, but trainer has brought this one along more slowly and waiting for the light to click on for him. 4x3 to Storm Cat, 4x4 to Quiet American, 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Fappiano. His 5th dam, Ocean's Answer, is a full sister to Storm Bird who developed her own important line and is named a Reine-de-Course mare because of her influence on the breed.
13) Drew's Gold (8-1) has started four times in his career, winning all 4 starts, including 3 this year. Now, he will get the acid test to find out just how good he might be. Many of you probably do not know this trainer, but he started his training career in Southern California and a few years later was sending horses back & forth to compete in Florida and California. But he, like several others, closed their California barns due to workers compensation laws that cause many good barns to struggle, then practically disappeared for a decade before resurfacing again in Kentucky & then NY. He has one workout since his last start, a bullet work 10 days before scheduled start. Contender. 5x4 to Storm Bird, 5x5 to Northern Dancer, Secretariat, & Blushing Groom. His dam line traces back to La Troienne which simply means this is a dam line influenced by Domino as 10 of her 11 daughters and one son was bred to Domino line sires.
11) Victory Formation (10-1) has started 3 times this year, winning a listed stakes in his first start followed by a poor effort in a G2 stakes race and then leading until deep stretch before finishing 3rd in another listed stakes. However, if you look at the distance of all three races (1 mile, 1 1/8 mile and 1 1/8) and then you look at his dam line, you will see his problem. His 2nd dam is a daughter of a solid sprinter and good sprinting sire, 4th dam, White Jasmine, is a granddaughter of Crimson Satan and his 6th dam, Sister Satan, is a 1/2 sister to Crimson Satan. Crimson Satan hails from the Domino sire line who was best known by how fast he was sprinting. He has four works since his last start, the first two good works followed by 2 decent works where trainer looked intent on trying to get him to rate by slowing his works down, something he did for the first time. 5x3 to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to In Reality, 5(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Seattle Slew.
4) General Jim (7-2) has started three times this year, finishing unplaced in his first start though blocked most of the stretch run, then winning his next two starts in a G3 and then a G2 stakes races. He has three works since his last start, a leg stretching type work, then a good work, followed by another leg stretching type work six days before scheduled start. Looks as ready as any in here to me. Outcross in his first 5 generations but has plenty of Mr. Prospector & Northern Dancer influences on both sides.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 2-13, $1 Tri Box 2-11-13, $.30 Super Box 2-4-11-13, $1 Super Key 13 with 2-4-11 with 2-4-11 with 2-4-11. Total Risks $29.20.
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Race 9: Jaipur Stakes (G1) --- Purse $400,000 ---- 3 YOs & Up --- 6 Furlongs Turf:
5) Dr, Zempf (8-1) has started twice this year with his first start being a win in an O/C race on a GP turf course that played much faster this year than normal. Then tried G1 stakes company in his next out, set most of the pace to the top of the stretch before tiring at one mile on Keeneland's grass course. Believe he will enjoy the cutback to 6 furlongs. 3x4 to Machiavellian but sire line and broodmare sire line flows back into Northern Dancer.
13) Front Run The Fed (30-1) has started once this year in an allowance race, was near the back early, then started his rally soon after a half was complete and came with a rush in the stretch and was up and clear in time for the win. Has two leg stretching type works since that start. The stretch-out to six furlongs should suit him even more but will need to avoid trouble for best opportunity. 4x4 to Rahy, 4x5 to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to Roberto.
10) Big Invasion (6-1) has two starts this year, winning his first start in a listed stakes at 5F on grass, then finishing unplaced in a G2 stakes race at 5 1/2 furlongs on grass but had trouble near the eight pole that likely caused him a better finish. Has 2 decent and useful works since his last start. 5x4 to Mr. Prospector. His 5th dam, Really Blue, is an unraced full sister to 1969 G1 Ky Derby & Preakness winner Majestic Prince and 2nd dam of 1998 Ky Derby & Preakness winner, Real Quiet.
6) Ice Chocolat (30-1) has three starts this year, the first to at 5 1/2 furlongs on grass and he finished unplaced in both of them, then switched to the AWT and stretched out to six furlongs when he edged closer to the leaders in the stretch run but a closing late kick was lacking. Now his fourth start of the year and one good work since his last start should help him find that needed punch late. 4(C)x5(C)x5(F) to Northern Dancer, 5(C)x4(F)x 4(F) to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to Special.
My Risk $5 Ex Box 5-13, $ 1 Tri Box 5-10-13, $.30 Super Box 5-6-10-13, $1 Super Key 5 with 6-10-13 with 6-10-13 with 6-10-13. Total Risk $29.20.
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Race 10: Metropolitan H(G1) --- Purse $1,000,000 --- 3 YOs & Up One Mile:
6) Zandon (5-1) has started once this year and finished second in what obviously trainer considered a prep for this start. The total purse for that race was $175K and no real help in raising a stallion's value, the purse for this race is $1M along with a likely raise in a stallion's value. He has three decent to good works since that effort and follows exactly the type of works he put in the horse before that race. 4x5 to Mr. Prospector.
2) Slow Down Andy (10-1) is making his first start of the year. He has 8 works to prepare for this start, the first 2 blowout type 3 furlongs works followed by 3 4 furlongs works that were simply leg stretching type works then a good 5 furlongs work and 2 good six furlongs works, none of them too fast to suggest he may leave his race in his works but not too slow to get no help from them. For reference, you can look how he brought Goldencents back off a 7-month break after winning the previous year BC Dirt Mile and finished 2nd to Palace Malice in the Met Mile. The favorite beat him last year in the BC Dirt Mile but his trip in the race (stumbled at the start, then became rank when rushed) before heading to biggest race of his life was a major reason why and usually knocks top horses off their best form. 5x4 to Mr. Prospector.
1)Cody's Wish (7-5) has made one start this year and made it a decisive win in a G1 stakes but everything in there were not of G1 quality except him which made an average win look like a romp. These are much tougher and trainer is acting concerned by how fast he has worked the horse since that race. 3 blistering fast works. Normally, horses that works this hard in works are tosses for me but I have not seen Mott put these types of works into his trainees in decades (thought he learned the hard way that super-fast works rarely works). He might run away and hide but the opposite happens way more than not. Am using caution. 3(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Mr. Prospector.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 2-6, $3 Tri Straight 2-6 with 2-6 with 1, $5 Tri Key 6 with 1-2 with 1-2. Total Risk $26.00.
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Race 11: Manhattan Stakes(G1) --- Purse $750,000 --- 4 YOs & Up --- 1 1/4 Mile Turf:
3) Warren Point (5-1) has one start in the U.S. this year where he was near the back early closed with a rush and taking a brief lead into the stretch before hanging and dropping back to fifth at 3-5 at 1 3/8 mile on the grass. Horse has shown he would much prefer the 1 1/4M distance as all 4 of his grass wins have come at that distance and his one 1 1/2-mile win was on the AWT. He has three works since that start, a leg stretching type work on dirt followed by two bullet works on grass around the dogs. 4x4 to Mr. Prospector, 5x5 to Northern Dancer, but also has a crossing to Never Bend through his grandsons Shirley Heights and Irish River.
10) Highest Honors (20-1) has one start this year where he was near the back early, was in a grind mold throughout the race but never really reach serious contention to finish 4th. Trainer has put 11 works in him, the first 5 works a little faster than he normally puts into his trainees, then gave the horse 13 days before returning to the work tab for six more weekly works, all of them good and decent though again faster than what he usually asks from his trainees. Likely as ready as he can be without a race in between some of these works. 4(C)x5(C)x4(F) to Mr. Prospector, 5x3 to Northern Dancer.
5) Soldier Rising (12-1) has one start this year where he sat mid-pack early, then eased back to last nearing the far turn while he waited for others to offer their best move, then came with a rush down the stretch to finish 2nd though no threat to winner who got away while he waited. Has 2 works since that race, a bullet work followed by a leg stretching work 6 days before scheduled start, both on grass around the dogs. 3x4 to Sadler's Wells & Danehill, 4(C)x5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Northern Dancer, 5x5 to Special.
1)So High (50-1) has three starts this year and has not placed yet this year though he has carry his speed to the top of the stretch in each race. This race is lacking on front runners who has shown ability to beat good horses but this one will likely be the last one to stop. He has run respectable in a G1 stakes race last year at 1 3/8 miles but was never going to beat Channel Cat who won several big G1 grass stakes in his career. 4x5 to Northern Dancer, 5x5 to Northern Dancer.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 3-10, $1 Tri Box 3-5-10, $.20 Super Box 1-3-5-10, $.60 Super Key 3 with 1-5-10 with 1-5-10 with 1-5-10, $6 Super Straight 3-10-5-1. Total Risk $30.00.
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Race 12: Belmont Stakes(G1) --- $1,500,000 --- 3 YOs --- 1 1/2 Mile:
1)Tapit Shoes (20-1) Has three starts this year, the first two in o/c races where he finished 4th, then 3rd and then finished 2nd (by a head) in a stakes race at OP that offered an all fees paid to the winner to enter the Preakness S. But before that start, trainer had him under consideration for a start in the Blue Grass S by working him three times at Keeneland including on the day of the race but opted to wait while he tried to qualify Verifying for the derby. He worked again on Lexington Stakes Day which suggests that race was also under consideration before deciding on the race he did race in. Since that near miss, he has 4 more good works and this horse is sitting on a big effort. 4(C)x5(C)x5(F)x5(F) to Mr. Prospector but has a Seattle Slew crossing in the sire line and as grandsire of the 4th dam, Trithenia.
7) Hit Show (10-1) has started three times this year, winning a G3 stakes in his first start, then missing a G2 win by a nose when second followed by a fifth in the Ky Derby after getting caught in the melee near the rail turning into the stretch. Has three works since that start, a leg stretching type work followed by a good work and them another leg stretching type work one week before scheduled start. 4x5 to Fappiano, 5x5 to Mr. Prospector.
8) Angel Of Empire (7-2) has three starts this year, finishing 2nd in a listed stakes then winning his next 2 starts in a G2 and a G1 stakes races following by a fast closing third in the Ky Derby. He has three works since his last start, a useful work followed by two very good works but not too fast that it takes anything out of him. 4x5 to Miswaki, 5x4 to Mr. Prospector.
3) Tapit Thrice (3-1) has 4 starts this year, winning his first three starts in an o/c race, then a G3 win followed by a G1 win. In his last start in the Ky Derby, he was never able to get involved because his Blue Grass win caused him to use to much fitness trying to catch a speed type on Keeneland's notorious speed favoring track. A blunder his trainer makes almost every year that has caused him several derby wins. He has three works since that race, a useful one followed by a good work and then a leg stretching type work one week before scheduled start. 3x4 to A.P. Indy & Unbridled.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 1-7, $1 Tri Box 1-7-8, $4 Tri Key 1 with 7-8 with 7-8, $.30 Super Box 1-3-7-8, $1 Super Key 1 with 3-7-8 with 3-7-8 with 3-7-8. Total Risk $37.20.
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Race 13: Allowance --- Purse $80,000 ---- 3 YOs & Up NY Bred N/W $18K 1x or N/W 2 Lifetime --- 1 1/16 Mile Turf:
9) Curly Larry And Mo (8-1) has started three times this year and has not placed. However, all three starts came against open bred and he should relish the return to NY bred foes. He has no works since his last race but expect him to set the early pace and play a catch me if you can game, much like he did in last year's one mile BC Juvenile Turf S. Complete outcross in his first 5 generations but has a Caro crossing in the sire line and in the broodmare sire line as sire of the dam of Maria's Mon, who is the broodmare sire. Also has Crafty Admiral influence through Danzig and Crafty Admiral himself as the sire of the 4th dam, Won't Tell You, dam of Affirmed.
6) Mighty Atlas (30-1) has started twice this year, the first in a state bred o/c race where he trailed for a half mile then put in a run to get into contention into the stretch but could not chase down the gate to wire winner at one mile on dirt. Next start was in a state bred allowance, also at one mile on dirt, he never got involved after two works just before that race were on the dull side also, indicating he regressed slightly off that first effort. Now has two more works since his last start, a good work followed by a leg stretching but useful work and will now make the first grass start of his career. Good shot at upsetting this field. 5x2 to Capote with crossing help from the influential broodmare Alanesian.
8) Barrel Of Quests (15-1) has started twice this year, the first which he made a move to get into contention going into the far turn but had no further response in his first start in seven months in an open bred condition allowance race, as should be expected. He then shipped back to NY and was entered in a state bred allowance and cut back to a mile on grass when he ran an even race but again had no response in the stretch run. Will likely keep moving forward and is not far off his best race, so any improvement off his last likely results in a board finish. Complete outcross in his first 5 generations but has plenty of Domino blood on both sides of pedigree.
2) Let's Go Big Blue (4-1) will be making his first start of the year. However, last year, hew broke his maiden in his first start, then his next three starts came against open bred stakes horses, and he held his own in the first two before by far the worst race of his career when blinkers were added. That last experience did not help, and trainer will remove the blinkers for this start, and he will go with first time lasix. He has six works for this start, the first 4 were leg stretching type works followed by 2 good works. Will be tough to deny if he comes back anywhere close to the fitness he had when he took a break. 4x4 to Al Hattab.
My Risks: $5 Ex Box 6-9, $1 Tri Box 6-8-9, $.30 Super Box 2-6-8-9, $1 Super Key 6 with 2-8-9 with 2-8-9 with 2-8-9. Total Risk $29.20.
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Race 5 $3 Triple Play: 3 with 5-10 with 3-10. Total Risk $12.00
Race 7 $1 P6: 1 with 2 with 5,10 with 2,6 with 3 with 1,7. Total Risk $8.00.
Race 8 $.50 Mandatory P5: 2 with 5,10, with 2,6 with 3,10 with 1,7. Total Risk $8.00.
Race 9 $.50 Late P5: 5,10 with 6 with 3 with 1,7,8 with 2,6,9. Total Risk $9.00.
Total Risks All Bets: $397.00.
2023.06.09 14:18 ScarcityApart6092 Saks sale
15% off sale in cosmetics and beauty at saks fifth Avenue, last day. Good chance to get high end skin care products like Guerlain!
submitted by ScarcityApart6092 to beauty [link] [comments]
2023.06.09 07:16 wsppan Today In Phishstory - June 9th
# Today In Phishstory - June 9th Brought to you by tiph-bot. Beep.
All data extracted via The Phishnet API.
Phish, Tuesday 06/09/2009 (14 years ago) Asheville Civic Center, Asheville, NC, USA
Gap Chart, Tour: 2009 Early Summer Tour
Set 1 : Kill Devil Falls , The Moma Dance , Sample in a Jar , Stash , Dog Faced Boy , Gumbo , Tube , Lengthwise , Divided Sky , When the Cactus is in Bloom 1 , Bold As Love
Set 2 : Backwards Down the Number Line > Ghost > Fast Enough for You , Halley's Comet > Maze , Alaska 1 , Theme From the Bottom , Golgi Apparatus , Possum
Encore : Loving Cup
1 Phish debut.
Jamchart Notes:
Backwards Down the Number Line - "Type I" version with great strumming by Trey and a short outro jam that > to "Ghost."
Show Notes:
This show featured the Phish debuts of When the Cactus is in Bloom and Alaska. Before Dog Faced Boy, Trey explained that while living with Fish, he wrote Dog Faced Boy, Tube and Gumbo based on entries in one of Fish's journals. During Dog Faced Boy, Fish left his drum kit and lay down in front of the stage because he didn't need to sing the song. Lengthwise (performed a cappella ) was played for the first time since July 28, 1998 (233 shows). Bold as Love was played for the first time since October 6, 2000 (74 shows).
Listen now at Phish.in!
Phish, Friday 06/09/2000 (23 years ago) On Air East, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo, , Japan
Gap Chart, Tour: 2000 Summer Japan Tour
Set 1 : Axilla > Taste , Billy Breathes , Poor Heart > Golgi Apparatus > Funky Bitch , The Moma Dance > First Tube > Chalk Dust Torture
Set 2 : Tweezer , Bouncing Around the Room 1 , The Mango Song , The Squirming Coil > Gotta Jibboo > Meatstick 2 > Tweezer Reprise
Encore : You Enjoy Myself
1 Brief outro solo from Trey, which replaced the usual closing guitar lick. 2 First Meatstick to feature Japanese lyrics.
Jamchart Notes:
Funky Bitch - Atypically improvisational must-hear monster.
Chalk Dust Torture - Winning fans in Japan. This huge first-set-closing version raises hell and ends, but then there's a second ending that concludes cacophonously.
Tweezer - Atypically slow but monstrously improvisational version that has several peaks and valleys before speeding-up and concluding in a melodic, triumphant, must-fucking-hear manner.
The Mango Song - Ending jam segment stretches the limits of the basic jam with some nice rhythmic variation, but still stays "in bounds."
You Enjoy Myself - Deeeep, funky jam/groove, and the return of the B&D; segment!
Show Notes:
The Moma Dance included Funky Bitch teases and Tweezer included Funk #49 teases. This was the first ever Meatstick to feature Japanese lyrics and Trey flubbed the words while attempting to sing them. Bouncing included a brief outro solo from Trey, which replaced the usual closing guitar lick. This show was re- broadcast on Japanese television.
Listen now at Phish.in!
Phish, Friday 06/09/1995 (28 years ago) Red Rocks Amphitheatre, Morrison, CO, USA
Gap Chart, Tour: 1995 Summer Tour
Set 1 : My Friend, My Friend , Divided Sky , Strange Design > The Oh Kee Pa Ceremony > AC/DC Bag > Theme From the Bottom , Taste , Sparkle > Run Like an Antelope
Set 2 : Split Open and Melt , The Wedge , Scent of a Mule , Cavern > David Bowie , Acoustic Army , Sweet Adeline , Slave to the Traffic Light
Encore : The Squirming Coil
Jamchart Notes:
Run Like an Antelope - Unusual jam. Sort of off-key. Sort of evil. Dissonant and anti-melodic. No real peak; it just fades into "Rocco."
Split Open and Melt - Improvisational playing in several sections tests the rhythmic and melodic standards for "SOAM" in this solid version.
Show Notes:
Part of the soundcheck's jam consisted of 25 or 6 to 4.
Listen now at Phish.in!
Phish, Thursday 06/09/1994 (29 years ago) Triad Amphitheater, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
Gap Chart, Tour: 1994 Summer Tour
Set 1 : Llama , Guelah Papyrus , Rift , Down with Disease > It's Ice > If I Could > Maze , Fee 1 , Suzy Greenberg
Set 2 : Split Open and Melt , Glide > Julius , Halley's Comet -> Scent of a Mule , Ginseng Sullivan 2 , Mike's Song > I Am Hydrogen > Weekapaug Groove , Golgi Apparatus
Encore : Highway to Hell
1 Trey sang verses through megaphone. 2 Acoustic and without microphones. Fish on Madonna washboard.
Jamchart Notes:
It's Ice - Good rocking jam with excellent Fish and solid Trey (of course Page is great).
Mike's Song - The 1st jam is rocking and ass kicking, with a clever little "Tweeprise"-like walk up. The 2nd jam is basically a non-vocal version of something very "Simple"-like. Just listen and you'll hear it. The return to "Mike's" has more crazed '94 scream-infused power action.
Show Notes:
Trey sang the verses of Fee through a megaphone. Ginseng Sullivan was performed acoustic without microphones and featured Fish on Madonna washboard.
Listen now at Phish.in!
Phish, Saturday 06/09/1990 (33 years ago) The Wetlands Preserve, New York, NY, USA
Gap Chart, Tour: 1990 Tour
Set 1 : Possum , Lawn Boy > Reba , Dinner and a Movie > Bouncing Around the Room > Tweezer , Uncle Pen > Mike's Song > I Am Hydrogen > Weekapaug Groove
Set 2 : Whole Lotta Love Jam > Harry Hood , The Man Who Stepped Into Yesterday > Avenu Malkenu > La Grange , Fee -> Foam , The Oh Kee Pa Ceremony > Suzy Greenberg > Run Like an Antelope , Hold Your Head Up > Terrapin > Hold Your Head Up , Harpua , Good Times Bad Times
Encore : Take the 'A' Train > Contact
Jamchart Notes:
Foam - -> in from "Fee." Groovy and excellent Page section with solid backing from Mike and Fish. It's all good from there.
Run Like an Antelope - Good exploratory version that gets nicely beyond the standard. Great tension, dissonance and experimental jamming.
Show Notes:
Harpua included Funkytown teases and 'A' Train contained a Dixie tease from Trey. The band launched into the second set-opening Whole Lotta Love Jam as the DJ had been spinning the original Zeppelin version. The opening act was The Aquarium Rescue Unit.
Listen now at Phish.in!
Trey Anastasio Trio, 2023-06-09 Mission Ballroom, Denver, CO, USA
Setlist: https://phish.net/setlists/trey-anastasio-trio-june-09-2023-mission-ballroom-denver-co-usa.html
Tour: Not Part of a Tour
Show Notes:
Trey Anastasio Band, 2006-06-09 Verizon Wireless Amphitheatre - Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, USA
Setlist: https://phish.net/setlists/trey-anastasio-june-09-2006-verizon-wireless-amphitheatre-charlotte-charlotte-nc-usa.html
Tour: TAB - Early Summer 2006 Tour
Show Notes: This single set performance was as the opening act for Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers. This setlist is unconfirmed as recordings of the performance do not circulate.
Trey Anastasio Band, 2002-06-09 Tower City Amphitheatre, Cleveland, OH, USA
Setlist: https://phish.net/setlists/trey-anastasio-june-09-2002-tower-city-amphitheatre-cleveland-oh-usa.html
Tour: TAB - The Dectet Summer 2002 Tour
Show Notes: The rendition of "Plasma" from this gig appears on Trey's live CD of the same name. Trey performed "Ray Dawn Balloon" acoustic.
Mike Gordon, 2015-06-09 The Pageant, St. Louis, MO, USA
Setlist: https://phish.net/setlists/mike-gordon-june-09-2015-the-pageant-st-louis-mo-usa.html
Tour: Mike Gordon - Summer 2015 Tour
Show Notes:
Jazz Mandolin Project, 2004-06-09 32 Bleu, Colorado Springs, CO, USA
Setlist: https://phish.net/setlists/jon-fishman-june-09-2004-32-bleu-colorado-springs-co-usa.html
Tour: Fish - Jazz Mandolin Project Summer 2004 Tour
Show Notes:
Page McConnell, 2007-06-09 Bogart's, Cincinnati, OH, USA
Setlist: https://phish.net/setlists/page-mcconnell-june-09-2007-bogarts-cincinnati-oh-usa.html
Tour: Page McConnell Spring & Summer 2007 Tour
Show Notes: This setlist is unconfirmed as recordings of the show do not circulate.
submitted by wsppan to phish [link] [comments]
All data extracted via The Phishnet API.
Phish
Gap Chart, Tour: 2009 Early Summer Tour
Set 1 : Kill Devil Falls , The Moma Dance , Sample in a Jar , Stash , Dog Faced Boy , Gumbo , Tube , Lengthwise , Divided Sky , When the Cactus is in Bloom 1 , Bold As Love
Set 2 : Backwards Down the Number Line > Ghost > Fast Enough for You , Halley's Comet > Maze , Alaska 1 , Theme From the Bottom , Golgi Apparatus , Possum
Encore : Loving Cup
1 Phish debut.
Jamchart Notes:
Backwards Down the Number Line - "Type I" version with great strumming by Trey and a short outro jam that > to "Ghost."
Show Notes:
This show featured the Phish debuts of When the Cactus is in Bloom and Alaska. Before Dog Faced Boy, Trey explained that while living with Fish, he wrote Dog Faced Boy, Tube and Gumbo based on entries in one of Fish's journals. During Dog Faced Boy, Fish left his drum kit and lay down in front of the stage because he didn't need to sing the song. Lengthwise (performed a cappella ) was played for the first time since July 28, 1998 (233 shows). Bold as Love was played for the first time since October 6, 2000 (74 shows).
Listen now at Phish.in!
Gap Chart, Tour: 2000 Summer Japan Tour
Set 1 : Axilla > Taste , Billy Breathes , Poor Heart > Golgi Apparatus > Funky Bitch , The Moma Dance > First Tube > Chalk Dust Torture
Set 2 : Tweezer , Bouncing Around the Room 1 , The Mango Song , The Squirming Coil > Gotta Jibboo > Meatstick 2 > Tweezer Reprise
Encore : You Enjoy Myself
1 Brief outro solo from Trey, which replaced the usual closing guitar lick. 2 First Meatstick to feature Japanese lyrics.
Jamchart Notes:
Funky Bitch - Atypically improvisational must-hear monster.
Chalk Dust Torture - Winning fans in Japan. This huge first-set-closing version raises hell and ends, but then there's a second ending that concludes cacophonously.
Tweezer - Atypically slow but monstrously improvisational version that has several peaks and valleys before speeding-up and concluding in a melodic, triumphant, must-fucking-hear manner.
The Mango Song - Ending jam segment stretches the limits of the basic jam with some nice rhythmic variation, but still stays "in bounds."
You Enjoy Myself - Deeeep, funky jam/groove, and the return of the B&D; segment!
Show Notes:
The Moma Dance included Funky Bitch teases and Tweezer included Funk #49 teases. This was the first ever Meatstick to feature Japanese lyrics and Trey flubbed the words while attempting to sing them. Bouncing included a brief outro solo from Trey, which replaced the usual closing guitar lick. This show was re- broadcast on Japanese television.
Listen now at Phish.in!
Gap Chart, Tour: 1995 Summer Tour
Set 1 : My Friend, My Friend , Divided Sky , Strange Design > The Oh Kee Pa Ceremony > AC/DC Bag > Theme From the Bottom , Taste , Sparkle > Run Like an Antelope
Set 2 : Split Open and Melt , The Wedge , Scent of a Mule , Cavern > David Bowie , Acoustic Army , Sweet Adeline , Slave to the Traffic Light
Encore : The Squirming Coil
Jamchart Notes:
Run Like an Antelope - Unusual jam. Sort of off-key. Sort of evil. Dissonant and anti-melodic. No real peak; it just fades into "Rocco."
Split Open and Melt - Improvisational playing in several sections tests the rhythmic and melodic standards for "SOAM" in this solid version.
Show Notes:
Part of the soundcheck's jam consisted of 25 or 6 to 4.
Listen now at Phish.in!
Gap Chart, Tour: 1994 Summer Tour
Set 1 : Llama , Guelah Papyrus , Rift , Down with Disease > It's Ice > If I Could > Maze , Fee 1 , Suzy Greenberg
Set 2 : Split Open and Melt , Glide > Julius , Halley's Comet -> Scent of a Mule , Ginseng Sullivan 2 , Mike's Song > I Am Hydrogen > Weekapaug Groove , Golgi Apparatus
Encore : Highway to Hell
1 Trey sang verses through megaphone. 2 Acoustic and without microphones. Fish on Madonna washboard.
Jamchart Notes:
It's Ice - Good rocking jam with excellent Fish and solid Trey (of course Page is great).
Mike's Song - The 1st jam is rocking and ass kicking, with a clever little "Tweeprise"-like walk up. The 2nd jam is basically a non-vocal version of something very "Simple"-like. Just listen and you'll hear it. The return to "Mike's" has more crazed '94 scream-infused power action.
Show Notes:
Trey sang the verses of Fee through a megaphone. Ginseng Sullivan was performed acoustic without microphones and featured Fish on Madonna washboard.
Listen now at Phish.in!
Gap Chart, Tour: 1990 Tour
Set 1 : Possum , Lawn Boy > Reba , Dinner and a Movie > Bouncing Around the Room > Tweezer , Uncle Pen > Mike's Song > I Am Hydrogen > Weekapaug Groove
Set 2 : Whole Lotta Love Jam > Harry Hood , The Man Who Stepped Into Yesterday > Avenu Malkenu > La Grange , Fee -> Foam , The Oh Kee Pa Ceremony > Suzy Greenberg > Run Like an Antelope , Hold Your Head Up > Terrapin > Hold Your Head Up , Harpua , Good Times Bad Times
Encore : Take the 'A' Train > Contact
Jamchart Notes:
Foam - -> in from "Fee." Groovy and excellent Page section with solid backing from Mike and Fish. It's all good from there.
Run Like an Antelope - Good exploratory version that gets nicely beyond the standard. Great tension, dissonance and experimental jamming.
Show Notes:
Harpua included Funkytown teases and 'A' Train contained a Dixie tease from Trey. The band launched into the second set-opening Whole Lotta Love Jam as the DJ had been spinning the original Zeppelin version. The opening act was The Aquarium Rescue Unit.
Listen now at Phish.in!
Trey Anastasio
Setlist: https://phish.net/setlists/trey-anastasio-trio-june-09-2023-mission-ballroom-denver-co-usa.html
Tour: Not Part of a Tour
Show Notes:
Setlist: https://phish.net/setlists/trey-anastasio-june-09-2006-verizon-wireless-amphitheatre-charlotte-charlotte-nc-usa.html
Tour: TAB - Early Summer 2006 Tour
Show Notes: This single set performance was as the opening act for Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers. This setlist is unconfirmed as recordings of the performance do not circulate.
Setlist: https://phish.net/setlists/trey-anastasio-june-09-2002-tower-city-amphitheatre-cleveland-oh-usa.html
Tour: TAB - The Dectet Summer 2002 Tour
Show Notes: The rendition of "Plasma" from this gig appears on Trey's live CD of the same name. Trey performed "Ray Dawn Balloon" acoustic.
Mike Gordon
Setlist: https://phish.net/setlists/mike-gordon-june-09-2015-the-pageant-st-louis-mo-usa.html
Tour: Mike Gordon - Summer 2015 Tour
Show Notes:
John Fishman
Setlist: https://phish.net/setlists/jon-fishman-june-09-2004-32-bleu-colorado-springs-co-usa.html
Tour: Fish - Jazz Mandolin Project Summer 2004 Tour
Show Notes:
Page McConnell
Setlist: https://phish.net/setlists/page-mcconnell-june-09-2007-bogarts-cincinnati-oh-usa.html
Tour: Page McConnell Spring & Summer 2007 Tour
Show Notes: This setlist is unconfirmed as recordings of the show do not circulate.
2023.06.08 14:07 dreftzg [Daily News] Orient Star Is A Skeleton At 1/5 Of The Price Of A Zenith, Bremont Releases Third Watch For The Williams F1 Team, Accutron Spaceview Gets First Major Update And The Vaer G5 Meridian Is A Flier GMT Watch Below The $1,000 Mark
It's Thursday and let's just get straight into it - make sure to check out the Vaer, interested in your thoughts.
Orient Star Will Sell You A Skeleton Watch At 1/5 Of The Price Of A Zenith
Just the other day I wrote about the Zenith Defy Skyline Skeleton, a wonderful skeletonized watch. It’s modern, it shows off a legendary movement, but it will also set you back a bit over EUR 11,000, which is a lot of money, no matter what budget you are shopping in. What if there was an a more affordable option out there? Maybe it didn’t have the super high end finishing of the Zenith or a legendary movement, but it looked just as cool and cost less than a fifth of the Zenith? Well, say hello to the Orient Star Avant-Garde Skeleton.
Orient started out in the 50s and has been part of the Seiko Epson Corporation since 2009. Orient Star, however, is the higher-end of the brand, which in 2016 shocked the market with a skeletonised model. Orient Star was known for their classical watches, so this was a huge departure. They updated it once in 2022 and are now introducing two new Avant-Garde Skeleton models as part of its Sports Collection with an automatic movement and a 60-hour power reserve.
The two models differ in the case material - you can have them in stainless steel or black plated steel - but they share the case specs. 42.3mm wide and 12.4mm thick, with a water resistance of 100 meters and bezels with hexagonal screws. The steel model has a combination of brushed surfaces with Sallaz mirror finishings (comparable to Grand Seiko’s Zaratsu polishing), adding accents and emphasising the solid metallic feel of the watch and bracelet.
Composed of two layers, the upper and lower plates of the dial are distinguished by different colours and finishings. The upper plate holds the luminous indices that project over the movement, and the lower plate is designed to protect the upper plate from shocks and deformation. Like the earlier model, the dial features a power reserve indicator at noon, a small seconds counter at 6 o’clock and a view of the balance wheel with its silicon escapement. The hour and minute hands are wider, sportier, and treated with luminous material.
Powering the Orient Star Avant-Garde Skeleton is the automatic, in-house calibre F8F64. Decorated with Geneva stripes, the partially openworked base plate reveals the bright blue silicon escapement peeking out just to the left of the small seconds and it’s rated at +15/-5 seconds per day, with a 60-hour power reserve. The stainless steel model comes with a steel bracelet; the black-coated steel watch on a black Cordura Ballistic nylon strap.
The retail price is EUR 2,000. Looking at photos of the watch, I’m not sure it lives up to that price. I would love to handle one live. However, this looks close enough to the Zenith, which is EUR 11,000+.
2/
Saint Laurent Redesigns The Cult Girard-Perregaux Digital Quartz Watch, Gives It Black Ceramic And PVD Titanium
While Girard-Perregaux is most known for their higher end Swiss mechanical watches, at one time they were pioneers in the era of digital watch. Back in 1971, it made waves with the Caliber GP-350, a quartz movement that set the universal market standard for frequency. Following that was the Caliber 395 and that’s the movement that GP put in the Casquette, an unusual watch even at the time - it was a black geometric hunk on your wrist that displayed the time at the push of a button on a tiny screen on the front facing side of the watch.
The Casquete came in three materials, Makrolon (which was a black composite), stainless steel and gold plated. It was only made for two years - 1976 and 1978 - and during that time 8,200 pieces were made. The original is still a desired item among collectors, which GP recognized and did a recreation of the watch last year. While remaining fully retro, the reissue is powered by the vastly more efficient GP-03980 that displays hours, minutes, seconds, the day and the date, the month, the year, a chronograph, a second time zone, and a secret date.
Now, there’s a new version of the Casquete, one redesigned by Saint Laurent Creative Director Anthony Vaccarello for the Saint Laurent Rive Droite line. Vaccarello gives the watch a radical upgrade in materials, as the case is now made out of black ceramic and black PVD-treated grade 5 titanium. It’s sleek, it’s retro, chunky and dramatic, all the things Vaccarello is known for.
The watch is released under the Rive Droite imprint, a series of objects that are sold exclusively in two stores located in Paris and LA. This means that it will also be available exclusively at Saint Laurent Rive Droite stores in Paris and Los Angeles, as well as online via the official Saint Laurent Rive Droite store, in selected countries only. That, combined with the fact that this will be a limited edition of only 100 pieces, means you aren’t very likely to see one in the flesh. Which isn’t that much of a shame because I’m not sure it would be easy to justify the $6,700 price tag.
3/
Bremont Releases Their Third Limited Watch For The Williams F1 Team
Formula 1 racing is an incredibly expensive sport. It was, at least, until 2021 when the organization implemented a budget cap of about $135 million. It’s still expensive, yes, but before the cap teams were known to spend up to half a billion dollars per year to push as hard as possible to win championships. The money for this endeavour comes from Formula 1, the organization, but this is just a small amount distributed to every team. The rest has to be raised from sponsors, and raising $135 million from sponsors is not easy.
Because of the high costs of the sport, the sponsorships are equally as high. It is estimated that the cheapest sponsorship is $1 million per year, an ammount that doesn’t get you a lot - surely doesn’t get you a sticker on the car, and it’s rumoured that Rolex is paying up to $50 million to be the official timing partner of the organization. So, I was pretty shocked three years ago to see that Bremont, the independent British watchmaker, sponsored Williams, the legendary British racing team, to a tune high enough to get a prominent sticker on the car. I had no idea Bremont was doing that good. Good on them.
To mark this sponsorship, Bremont has already created two limited edition watches and is just now releasing the third. Since both companies are very British, it’s no surprise that they are doing so just a month before the British Grand Prix at Silverstone. It’s the Bremont WR-45, a limited-edition chronograph that is inspired by this year’s Williams Racing F1 car, the FW-45.
The watch has Bremont’s signature three-piece “Trip-Tick” construction, it’s made from stainless steel with a black DLC finish and measures 43mm in diameter by 16mm-thick, with 22mm lugs and an overall lug-to-lug profile of 50mm. Despite the fact that the crown and pushers that operate the chronograph don’t screw down, it has a 100 meter water resistance. Unlike previous Bremont Williams Racing watches, the dial fitted to the new WR-45 is black to match its case, and it has a tri-compax configuration and a date window within the 6 o’clock sub dial. The white register at 9 o’clock features a light blue hand and serves as a running seconds indicator for the time, while the other two sub-dials are fitted with white-finished hands. Additionally, the hours counter features a thin three-color ring in light blue, dark blue, and white surrounding its perimeter, and this serves as a subtle nod to the official colors of the Williams Racing F1 team.
Inside the watch is the brand’s Caliber BE-53AV automatic chronograph movement based on the proven ETA/Valjoux 7753. It has a frequency of 28,800vph (4 Hz) while offering users a power reserve of approximately 56 hours, while the rotor has been skeletonized to look like the wheels of the Williams F1 car. The watch comes on a black two-piece alcantara strap.
This will be a limited edition of 244 pieces and every watch is accompanied with a genuine wheel nut taken from one of the Williams Racing cars. It’s priced at $6,595.
4/
The Accutron Spaceview Gets First Major Update With Spaceview Evolution, But Keeps The Very Cool Electrostatic Movement
Accutron is one of the most familiar names in watchmaking. This Bulova model participated in the space race and was, reportedly, narrowly pushed out by the Omega Speedmaster to be the official NASA watch that will be worn on the moon, but the Bulova Accutron remained a beloved watch by many astronauts and was used in space. That’s why it was a bit puzzling when Bulova in 2020 decided to spin of the Accutron into its own brand. But the puzzle was put aside when Accutron introduced the gorgeous Spaceview 2020 with an open-worked dial and inspired by the original 1960s Spaceview. Now Accutron is introducing two new models called Evolution that do exactly that - evolve the Spaceview.
Just like the 2020 model, the Spaceview Evolution watches are housed in a 43.5mm polished stainless steel case that is 15.9mm thick. Where it differs from the previous model is in the movement. Not the movement they use, but rather the orientation of the movement - the entire thing is shifter 30 degrees, moving the crown to 2 o’clock, giving the watch a completely new look.
Accutron currently offers two versions of the Spaceview Evolution timepiece. One with a smoke-gray open dial, darkened metal outer ring, silver-toned hands, and a matte-black alligator strap. The other also includes a smoke-gray open dial paired with a silver-toned outer ring, metallic blue hands, and a shiny blue alligator strap. Both straps are genuine American alligator and are finished with double-press deployant clasps.
Inside the Spaceview Evolution watches is Accutron’s proprietary electrostatic energy movement. Essentially, the movement is home to twin turbines that rotate at rapid speeds with the motion of your wrist. Those turbines are located between two electrodes, which serve to capture the electrostatic energy created by the turbines and send them to an accumulator. The stored energy in the accumulator then powers two motors: an electrostatic motor (a world’s first) that drives the gliding seconds hand and a step motor that drives the hour and minute hands. The duo of motors are synchronized via integrated circuits and provide an accuracy rating of +/- 5 seconds a month.
The movement also has a power-saving mode, which kicks into gear after five minutes of inactivity with the second hand automatically halting at 12 o’clock. Although the seconds hand stays in place, the watch will continue to keep time as the hour and minute hands continue to move. To stop the power-saving mode and reactivate the seconds hand, you simply have to swing your arm up and down for about five seconds.
The Accutron Spaceview Evolution watches are priced at $3,950 and are available immediately for purchase.
5/
The New Vaer G5 Meridian Is A Flier GMT Watch Well Below The $1,000 Mark
At the moment, my favorite GMT movement is a highly modified Miyota 9015 which the microbrand Arken calls the ARK-9015DT and uses in their Alterum. It’s a crazy movement that works unlike any other GMT movment. Rotating the hands clockwise moves the entire handset, including the GMT hand, as well as both AM/PM indicator discs. However, moving the handset in the opposite direction will lock the GMT hand and its corresponding AM/PM indicator (left of the dial) allowing you to set the time difference between your local and home times. This means you can set the minutes to any time and just rotate the hour hand.
Other than that movement and, obviously, in house ones, there seems to be a consensus that it’s hard to beat the recently introduced Miyota Cal. 9075 movement which is an affordable option for those who want a “flier” or “true” GMT, which allows for an independently adjustable local 12-hour hand. And this exactly has been a request from millions of collectors and watch enthusiasts. The movement also allows microbrands like the LA based Vaer to slap these movements into watches that look great and are really affordable.
Vaer’s most recent watch is the G5 Meridian GMT and it’s an intresting proposition. At first glance, the G5 looks identical to their G7. That could be because it comes in a 39mm stainless case without a crown guard and 200 meter water resistance or the fact that they come in pretty much the same four colors - two models with black dials and either red/blue or black/blue bezels, along with an all-black PVD variant, plus a third stainless steel option that is fitted with both a green dial and a green bezel. However, while Vaer’s G7 GMT is a Swiss-made timepiece powered by the Sellita SW330-2 and priced just above the thousand-dollar mark, the Vaer G5 Meridian GMT is an American-assembled version that runs on the Japanese Miyota 9075.
The watch comes on two different straps or bracelets that connect to the 20mm lugs with integrated quick-release springbars. Since the G5 GMT was designed to be used in the water, a black FKM rubber tropic strap is the standard included configuration, as it is the most water-friendly option available for the model. For the secondary strap/bracelet option, buyers have the option of either a simple NATO or a nylon single pass strap — or opting for one of the premium leather straps or stainless steel bracelets in Oyster and Jubillee designs.
The official price of the Vaer G5 Meridian GMT is $799 or $849 if you opt for one of the premium strap/bracelet options. That’s a fantastic price that gives you more functionality for a traveler.
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Review Of The ProTek Series 1010, The Official Watch Of The United States Marine Corps
2/
Hands-on With The The Delma Shell Star Titanium That Sheds Both Size And Weight
3/
In-Depth Reveiw of The Horage Lensman 2 Exposure — A Watch With A Photographic Cheat Sheet
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Up until now, RZE have been quite conscious of their case sizes pleasing the majority of modern collectors who prefer conservative diameters. Their largest watch was the now-discontinued RZE Valour Chronograph at 42mm, with the sold-out Fortitude coming in second at 41mm. The new RZE Aspirare is bullish with its 44mm diameter, and untamed with a 53mm lug-to-lug that will absolutely demand some bravery to wear if you don’t have large wrists. Although the RZE philosophy has catered to the adventurous, the Aspirare is designed to be their most rugged project yet.
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People loved the Seiko Alpinist giveaway! That's why I'm doing a new one. This time, we're giving away four Hamilton Khaki Field Automatics in a color of your choice. Head on over to the newsletter if you would like to enter.
If you would like to receive some additional watch-adjacent content, as well as this news overview, every morning Monday-Friday in the form of a newsletter feel free to subscribe. However, there is absolutely no need for you to subscribe, as all the news from the newsletter is posted here. It is only if you want to receive a couple of daily links that are not strictly watch-related and want to get this news overview in your inbox.
submitted by dreftzg to Watches [link] [comments]
What's new
1/Orient Star Will Sell You A Skeleton Watch At 1/5 Of The Price Of A Zenith
Just the other day I wrote about the Zenith Defy Skyline Skeleton, a wonderful skeletonized watch. It’s modern, it shows off a legendary movement, but it will also set you back a bit over EUR 11,000, which is a lot of money, no matter what budget you are shopping in. What if there was an a more affordable option out there? Maybe it didn’t have the super high end finishing of the Zenith or a legendary movement, but it looked just as cool and cost less than a fifth of the Zenith? Well, say hello to the Orient Star Avant-Garde Skeleton.
Orient started out in the 50s and has been part of the Seiko Epson Corporation since 2009. Orient Star, however, is the higher-end of the brand, which in 2016 shocked the market with a skeletonised model. Orient Star was known for their classical watches, so this was a huge departure. They updated it once in 2022 and are now introducing two new Avant-Garde Skeleton models as part of its Sports Collection with an automatic movement and a 60-hour power reserve.
The two models differ in the case material - you can have them in stainless steel or black plated steel - but they share the case specs. 42.3mm wide and 12.4mm thick, with a water resistance of 100 meters and bezels with hexagonal screws. The steel model has a combination of brushed surfaces with Sallaz mirror finishings (comparable to Grand Seiko’s Zaratsu polishing), adding accents and emphasising the solid metallic feel of the watch and bracelet.
Composed of two layers, the upper and lower plates of the dial are distinguished by different colours and finishings. The upper plate holds the luminous indices that project over the movement, and the lower plate is designed to protect the upper plate from shocks and deformation. Like the earlier model, the dial features a power reserve indicator at noon, a small seconds counter at 6 o’clock and a view of the balance wheel with its silicon escapement. The hour and minute hands are wider, sportier, and treated with luminous material.
Powering the Orient Star Avant-Garde Skeleton is the automatic, in-house calibre F8F64. Decorated with Geneva stripes, the partially openworked base plate reveals the bright blue silicon escapement peeking out just to the left of the small seconds and it’s rated at +15/-5 seconds per day, with a 60-hour power reserve. The stainless steel model comes with a steel bracelet; the black-coated steel watch on a black Cordura Ballistic nylon strap.
The retail price is EUR 2,000. Looking at photos of the watch, I’m not sure it lives up to that price. I would love to handle one live. However, this looks close enough to the Zenith, which is EUR 11,000+.
2/
Saint Laurent Redesigns The Cult Girard-Perregaux Digital Quartz Watch, Gives It Black Ceramic And PVD Titanium
While Girard-Perregaux is most known for their higher end Swiss mechanical watches, at one time they were pioneers in the era of digital watch. Back in 1971, it made waves with the Caliber GP-350, a quartz movement that set the universal market standard for frequency. Following that was the Caliber 395 and that’s the movement that GP put in the Casquette, an unusual watch even at the time - it was a black geometric hunk on your wrist that displayed the time at the push of a button on a tiny screen on the front facing side of the watch.
The Casquete came in three materials, Makrolon (which was a black composite), stainless steel and gold plated. It was only made for two years - 1976 and 1978 - and during that time 8,200 pieces were made. The original is still a desired item among collectors, which GP recognized and did a recreation of the watch last year. While remaining fully retro, the reissue is powered by the vastly more efficient GP-03980 that displays hours, minutes, seconds, the day and the date, the month, the year, a chronograph, a second time zone, and a secret date.
Now, there’s a new version of the Casquete, one redesigned by Saint Laurent Creative Director Anthony Vaccarello for the Saint Laurent Rive Droite line. Vaccarello gives the watch a radical upgrade in materials, as the case is now made out of black ceramic and black PVD-treated grade 5 titanium. It’s sleek, it’s retro, chunky and dramatic, all the things Vaccarello is known for.
The watch is released under the Rive Droite imprint, a series of objects that are sold exclusively in two stores located in Paris and LA. This means that it will also be available exclusively at Saint Laurent Rive Droite stores in Paris and Los Angeles, as well as online via the official Saint Laurent Rive Droite store, in selected countries only. That, combined with the fact that this will be a limited edition of only 100 pieces, means you aren’t very likely to see one in the flesh. Which isn’t that much of a shame because I’m not sure it would be easy to justify the $6,700 price tag.
3/
Bremont Releases Their Third Limited Watch For The Williams F1 Team
Formula 1 racing is an incredibly expensive sport. It was, at least, until 2021 when the organization implemented a budget cap of about $135 million. It’s still expensive, yes, but before the cap teams were known to spend up to half a billion dollars per year to push as hard as possible to win championships. The money for this endeavour comes from Formula 1, the organization, but this is just a small amount distributed to every team. The rest has to be raised from sponsors, and raising $135 million from sponsors is not easy.
Because of the high costs of the sport, the sponsorships are equally as high. It is estimated that the cheapest sponsorship is $1 million per year, an ammount that doesn’t get you a lot - surely doesn’t get you a sticker on the car, and it’s rumoured that Rolex is paying up to $50 million to be the official timing partner of the organization. So, I was pretty shocked three years ago to see that Bremont, the independent British watchmaker, sponsored Williams, the legendary British racing team, to a tune high enough to get a prominent sticker on the car. I had no idea Bremont was doing that good. Good on them.
To mark this sponsorship, Bremont has already created two limited edition watches and is just now releasing the third. Since both companies are very British, it’s no surprise that they are doing so just a month before the British Grand Prix at Silverstone. It’s the Bremont WR-45, a limited-edition chronograph that is inspired by this year’s Williams Racing F1 car, the FW-45.
The watch has Bremont’s signature three-piece “Trip-Tick” construction, it’s made from stainless steel with a black DLC finish and measures 43mm in diameter by 16mm-thick, with 22mm lugs and an overall lug-to-lug profile of 50mm. Despite the fact that the crown and pushers that operate the chronograph don’t screw down, it has a 100 meter water resistance. Unlike previous Bremont Williams Racing watches, the dial fitted to the new WR-45 is black to match its case, and it has a tri-compax configuration and a date window within the 6 o’clock sub dial. The white register at 9 o’clock features a light blue hand and serves as a running seconds indicator for the time, while the other two sub-dials are fitted with white-finished hands. Additionally, the hours counter features a thin three-color ring in light blue, dark blue, and white surrounding its perimeter, and this serves as a subtle nod to the official colors of the Williams Racing F1 team.
Inside the watch is the brand’s Caliber BE-53AV automatic chronograph movement based on the proven ETA/Valjoux 7753. It has a frequency of 28,800vph (4 Hz) while offering users a power reserve of approximately 56 hours, while the rotor has been skeletonized to look like the wheels of the Williams F1 car. The watch comes on a black two-piece alcantara strap.
This will be a limited edition of 244 pieces and every watch is accompanied with a genuine wheel nut taken from one of the Williams Racing cars. It’s priced at $6,595.
4/
The Accutron Spaceview Gets First Major Update With Spaceview Evolution, But Keeps The Very Cool Electrostatic Movement
Accutron is one of the most familiar names in watchmaking. This Bulova model participated in the space race and was, reportedly, narrowly pushed out by the Omega Speedmaster to be the official NASA watch that will be worn on the moon, but the Bulova Accutron remained a beloved watch by many astronauts and was used in space. That’s why it was a bit puzzling when Bulova in 2020 decided to spin of the Accutron into its own brand. But the puzzle was put aside when Accutron introduced the gorgeous Spaceview 2020 with an open-worked dial and inspired by the original 1960s Spaceview. Now Accutron is introducing two new models called Evolution that do exactly that - evolve the Spaceview.
Just like the 2020 model, the Spaceview Evolution watches are housed in a 43.5mm polished stainless steel case that is 15.9mm thick. Where it differs from the previous model is in the movement. Not the movement they use, but rather the orientation of the movement - the entire thing is shifter 30 degrees, moving the crown to 2 o’clock, giving the watch a completely new look.
Accutron currently offers two versions of the Spaceview Evolution timepiece. One with a smoke-gray open dial, darkened metal outer ring, silver-toned hands, and a matte-black alligator strap. The other also includes a smoke-gray open dial paired with a silver-toned outer ring, metallic blue hands, and a shiny blue alligator strap. Both straps are genuine American alligator and are finished with double-press deployant clasps.
Inside the Spaceview Evolution watches is Accutron’s proprietary electrostatic energy movement. Essentially, the movement is home to twin turbines that rotate at rapid speeds with the motion of your wrist. Those turbines are located between two electrodes, which serve to capture the electrostatic energy created by the turbines and send them to an accumulator. The stored energy in the accumulator then powers two motors: an electrostatic motor (a world’s first) that drives the gliding seconds hand and a step motor that drives the hour and minute hands. The duo of motors are synchronized via integrated circuits and provide an accuracy rating of +/- 5 seconds a month.
The movement also has a power-saving mode, which kicks into gear after five minutes of inactivity with the second hand automatically halting at 12 o’clock. Although the seconds hand stays in place, the watch will continue to keep time as the hour and minute hands continue to move. To stop the power-saving mode and reactivate the seconds hand, you simply have to swing your arm up and down for about five seconds.
The Accutron Spaceview Evolution watches are priced at $3,950 and are available immediately for purchase.
5/
The New Vaer G5 Meridian Is A Flier GMT Watch Well Below The $1,000 Mark
At the moment, my favorite GMT movement is a highly modified Miyota 9015 which the microbrand Arken calls the ARK-9015DT and uses in their Alterum. It’s a crazy movement that works unlike any other GMT movment. Rotating the hands clockwise moves the entire handset, including the GMT hand, as well as both AM/PM indicator discs. However, moving the handset in the opposite direction will lock the GMT hand and its corresponding AM/PM indicator (left of the dial) allowing you to set the time difference between your local and home times. This means you can set the minutes to any time and just rotate the hour hand.
Other than that movement and, obviously, in house ones, there seems to be a consensus that it’s hard to beat the recently introduced Miyota Cal. 9075 movement which is an affordable option for those who want a “flier” or “true” GMT, which allows for an independently adjustable local 12-hour hand. And this exactly has been a request from millions of collectors and watch enthusiasts. The movement also allows microbrands like the LA based Vaer to slap these movements into watches that look great and are really affordable.
Vaer’s most recent watch is the G5 Meridian GMT and it’s an intresting proposition. At first glance, the G5 looks identical to their G7. That could be because it comes in a 39mm stainless case without a crown guard and 200 meter water resistance or the fact that they come in pretty much the same four colors - two models with black dials and either red/blue or black/blue bezels, along with an all-black PVD variant, plus a third stainless steel option that is fitted with both a green dial and a green bezel. However, while Vaer’s G7 GMT is a Swiss-made timepiece powered by the Sellita SW330-2 and priced just above the thousand-dollar mark, the Vaer G5 Meridian GMT is an American-assembled version that runs on the Japanese Miyota 9075.
The watch comes on two different straps or bracelets that connect to the 20mm lugs with integrated quick-release springbars. Since the G5 GMT was designed to be used in the water, a black FKM rubber tropic strap is the standard included configuration, as it is the most water-friendly option available for the model. For the secondary strap/bracelet option, buyers have the option of either a simple NATO or a nylon single pass strap — or opting for one of the premium leather straps or stainless steel bracelets in Oyster and Jubillee designs.
The official price of the Vaer G5 Meridian GMT is $799 or $849 if you opt for one of the premium strap/bracelet options. That’s a fantastic price that gives you more functionality for a traveler.
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On hand - a selection of reviews
1/Review Of The ProTek Series 1010, The Official Watch Of The United States Marine Corps
2/
Hands-on With The The Delma Shell Star Titanium That Sheds Both Size And Weight
3/
In-Depth Reveiw of The Horage Lensman 2 Exposure — A Watch With A Photographic Cheat Sheet
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Watch Worthy - A look at an offbeat, less known watch you might actually like
The RZE Aspirare launches the brand into yet unexplored watersUp until now, RZE have been quite conscious of their case sizes pleasing the majority of modern collectors who prefer conservative diameters. Their largest watch was the now-discontinued RZE Valour Chronograph at 42mm, with the sold-out Fortitude coming in second at 41mm. The new RZE Aspirare is bullish with its 44mm diameter, and untamed with a 53mm lug-to-lug that will absolutely demand some bravery to wear if you don’t have large wrists. Although the RZE philosophy has catered to the adventurous, the Aspirare is designed to be their most rugged project yet.
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People loved the Seiko Alpinist giveaway! That's why I'm doing a new one. This time, we're giving away four Hamilton Khaki Field Automatics in a color of your choice. Head on over to the newsletter if you would like to enter.
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2023.06.08 00:55 polarttarius [SELL][US] Natasha Denona, Laura Mercier, Danessa Myricks, Estee Lauder, Shiseido, Ciate, Glossier, Em Cosmetics, Urban Decay, Kaja, Benefit, The Saem, Milk Makeup, Colourpop, Maybelline, L’Oreal, Elf, Makeup Brushes
verificationPaypal G&S, shipping $4+, no minimum. Shipped in 2 business days. Drug, pet, covid free. Packed securely in box and/or bubble mailer w/ bubble wraps
Feel free to check out and combine with items from my sell posts on skincareexchange (LINK), haircareexchange (LINK), and femfraglab (LINK)
Eyes #1 (starts from top left, down each column in the picture)
Hair- Kerastase Magic Night Serum (BNIB) $35
Thanks for looking! 💕
submitted by polarttarius to makeupexchange [link] [comments]
Feel free to check out and combine with items from my sell posts on skincareexchange (LINK), haircareexchange (LINK), and femfraglab (LINK)
Eyes #1 (starts from top left, down each column in the picture)
- Natasha Denona single eyeshadow in Aubade (lightly used) $3
- Maybelline single eyeshadow in Dusty Rose (lightly used) $1
- Laura Mercier Mini Caviar Stick Eye Color in Strapless 0.03oz (lightly used) $5
- Danessa Myricks Colorfix in Latte (New) $9
- Urban Decay Original Eyeshadow Primer Potion Deluxe Sample 2ml/0.06fl.oz (New) $3
- Ciate London Everyday Vacay eye and face palette (BNIB) $15
- Kaja Beauty Bento in Rosewater (BNIB) $15
- Kaja Beauty Bento in Glowing Guava (BNIB) $15
- Colourpop Sweet Talk eyeshadow palette (used, shade Side2Side is depotted) $5
- Ulta Beauty Mascara in Jet Black 8.5ml (BNIB) $1
- Elf Perfect Finish HD Pressed Powder in Clear (used, see picture) $1
- EM Cosmetics Heaven's Glow Radiant Veil Blush in Persimmon (BNIB) $24
- The Saem Saemmul Single Blusher in Riberry (lightly used) $2
- Glossier Wowder in G8-G10 (lightly used, still about 90% left) $8
- Well People Superpowder Brightening Powder in Pearl (used) $5
- Laura Mercier Mini Translucent Loose Setting Powder in Translucent 5g/0.17oz (New & sealed) $8
- Urban Decay All Nighter Setting Spray Deluxe Sample 15ml/0.5fl.oz (BNIB) $5
- Laritzy Cosmetics Cream Highlighter in Virtue (BNIB) $10
- Benefit Boi-ing Bright on Concealer in Melon (used, ~50% left) $3
- Estee Lauder Double Wear Sheer Long-Wear Makeup in 1N2 Ecru (used, ~50% left) $10
- Shiseido Synchro Skin Self-Refreshing Concealer in 101 Fair (used, ~70% left) $5
- Elf Perfect Finish HD Pressed Powder in Clear (used) $1
- L’Oreal Infallible 24H powder foundation in Sand Sable (lightly used, puff also lightly used) $4
- Maybelline Master Prime in 400 30ml (used, ~85% left) $2
- BareMinerals Original Mineral Veil Setting Powder in Original Translucent Deluxe Sample 0.03oz (used, ~80% left) $1
- Milk Makeup Blur Stick Deluxe Sample 0.1oz/3g (lightly used) $2
- Rare Beauty Kind Words Matte Lipstick card sample in Gifted and Lively
- Kaja Whipped Dream card sample in Coral Souffle, Meringue Pink, Rose Macaron, Mocha Tarte
- Nars Laguna Bronzing Powder card sample in Laguna 02, 04, 06, 08
- MAC StudioFix Fluid card sample in N6, NC20, NW20
- MAC Locked Kiss Ink 24HR Lipcolour card sample in Ruby True, Most Curious, Mischief
- Tarte Shape Tape Cloud Coverage card sample in 12N, 22N, 35N, 47S, 58N
- Dior Forever Matte Foundation card sample in Velvet Veil (primer), 1N, 2N, 3N, 4N, 5W, 6W, 7N, 8N
- Real Techniques by Sam & Nic Chapman Tapered Foundation brush (used) $2
- Real Techniques by Sam & Nic Chapman Buffing brush (used) $2
- Real Techniques Blush brush RT 400 (used few times) $3
- Real Techniques Easy as 123 Basics Blush brush (used) $2
- Real Techniques Easy as 123 Basics Blend Shadow brush (used) $2
- Sephora Blending Eye #29 brush (used) $1
- BareMinerals Double-Ended Soft Focus Face & Eye brush (used) $5
- EcoTools Flawless Coverage brush (used) $3
- EcoTools Complexion Buffer brush (used) $2
- Elf Beautifully Bare Blending brush (used) $2
- Elf kabuki Face brush (used) $2
- Nyx Shading brush #13 (used) $1
- Crown Angle Liner brush (used) $1
- Laruce Concealer brush LR100 (new) $4
- Laruce Short Shadow brush LR105 (new) $4
- Laruce Angled Shadow brush LR008 (new) $4
- Dr Dennis Gross DermaInfusions Fill + Repair Serum Deluxe Sample 7ml (BNIB) $10
- Dr Dennis Gross Alpha Beta Extra Strength Daily Peel Pads for 1 treatment (BNIB) $3
- Dr Dennis Gross Advanced Retinol + Ferulic Triple Correction Eye Serum Foil Sample 1ml (BNIB) $3
- Dr Dennis Gross Vitamin C + Lactic Oil-Free Radiant Moisturizer Foil Sample 2ml (BNIB) $3
- La Mer the Moisturizing Soft Cream Deluxe Sample (size unknown, pot is size of a coin) $6
- Holika Holika Gold Kiwi Brightening Toner 150ml (BNIB) $7
- Well People Juice Cleanse Face Cleanser 112ml (BNIB) $9
- Well People Plant Powderfoliant 0.56oz (BNIB) $2
- Tatcha Silk Serum 5ml Deluxe Sample (BNIB) $4
Hair
Thanks for looking! 💕
2023.06.07 22:27 strabosassistant Essay [v0.9 2 of 2] Pitchforks to an Android Fight: How A.I. destroys the class power balance
Part 2 of 2: All constructive criticism is welcome and the more specific, the better.
Bringing a pitchfork to an android fight
This leaves the ruled with the sole strategic deterrent of their collective potential for violence. The deterrent is twofold:- Their potential as agents of coercive violence on the part of intra-class competitors
- Their collective power as a ‘mob’ or mass movement that if necessary can overwhelm through numbers (a la Bastille)
Privileges and special treatment are often accorded to members of the same class in external societies with matching institutions of legitimacy. These privileges can even hold in wartime where either special treatment during capture or prohibitions against shedding ‘royal’ or ‘noble’ blood set class members apart from the ruled populace of either society.
This irrevocability of status limits the ability of a class to neutralize rogue members. Even if rejected by other class members, rogue members are often able to still garner support internally and externally based on their claim to legitimacy as in the case of James Francis Edward Stuart.
This inherent instability results in the courting of the ruled by competing members of the ruling elite as agents of violence. It can be as gross as the direct financing of the Clodian and Milonian gangs by Caesar and his opponents or the actual bidding war for the Roman Imperial purple by Didius Julianus. Or it can be as professional as purchasing the services of condottieri during the Italian city-state conflicts. The commonality is gathering enough of the ruled to bludgeon other members of the ruling elite into submission.
The 20th century saw the beginning of the end for hereditary institutions of legitimacy. The Chinese and Russian Communist revolutions as well as the ascent of Nazism in Germany represented the rise to power of ideologies that were fatally antagonistic to the aristocracy) and royalty. The post World II breakup of the British Empire - especially in India - saw the removal of more hereditary rulers as former colonies coalesced into independent modern nation-states. Even the former imperial leader saw radical institutional shakeups. The Labour Party’s victory in the 1945 elections started Great Britain’s transition from hereditary legitimacy as well culminating in the House of Lords Act 1999 and its following updates. In less than 100 years, a substantial portion of humanity transitioned their institutions of legitimacy and the basis of ruling elite power.
The end of elite intra-class conflict
Modernity has seen the irrevocable legitimacy of birth and descent replaced with the conditional legitimacy of intellectual compliance with the ruling elite’s philosophy or ideology. This phenomenon is most easily discerned in the Soviet Union, Communist China and other formecurrent Communist countries.Elites were subject to constant surveillance and purged for even small infractions of ideological deviation. Surveillance was pervasive - so pervasive that in East Germany it was estimated that there was one Stasi (secret police) informer for every 6.5 citizens. Once identified as deviants, purged members were de-legitimized prior to removal in tightly controlled trials where ‘extracted’ confessions were presented as damning evidence of ideological nonconformity. This ‘delegitimization’ was so effective that popular uprisings on behalf of purged members were/are virtually nonexistent. With no legitimate claim or access to energy in the system, the purged members are rendered powerless to raise groups of the ruled to save them.
In Western Europe and the vast majority of the Anglosphere, credentialism is the preferred institution of legitimacy and can be revoked unlike inherited nobility or spiritual superiority. Credentialism (nominal meritocracy coupled with ideological compliance) forms a framework of class control slightly less punitive, yet every bit as pervasive as the Communist regimes.
In a credentials-based system, the institutions that bestow credentials - such as elite universities - represent a significant chokepoint of control over ruling elite members.
Attendance has its privileges. In the United States, Ivy League and Ivy League plus graduates are overrepresented in the upper echelons of US government, business and non-profit institutions. Currently 8 out of 9 US Supreme Court justices are graduates of just two law schools: Yale and Harvard Law. 4 out 5 of the last US Presidents graduated from Ivy League schools.
However, despite representation as a ‘meritocracy’, admission to and attendance at these institutions are not contingent solely on merit. The most obvious exceptions being legacy preferences and affirmative action. Legacy preferences and affirmative action are non-merit criteria for admission that enables ruling elites to play gatekeeper and prefer members of their class or preferred candidates for addition to the class.
Less obvious though is the implied ideological conformity to become a member of these credential granting institutions. During the 1950s and 1960s, the whiff of Communist sympathies could blacklist an individual from these institutions. In present times, differing views on gender, race, immigration or even ‘lack of personality’ can bar an individual from admission, cause rescission of admission or expulsion from these credential granting institutions. Earned credentials can be revoked for academic disagreement if it buts against the class consensus as is the case in California where disagreement with the ‘consensus’ over COVID now allows medical license revocation.
Technology makes possible the ubiquitous yet decentralized class policing to maintain conformity in the West. Stray comments from years in the past during literal childhood are now grounds for exclusion or ‘cancellation’. Social media and cancel culture allows class coordination in real-time with everything captured on phones and immediately shared on Twitter, Tiktok, Instagram to generate instant class outrage and cancellation - all without recourse to a government institution. There’s no longer a need to ‘eliminate’ someone when a bot can post inciting content that results in the loss of credentials, employment and social status for the problematic individual.
Whether the punitive Communist system or the slightly less punitive yet every bit as controlling Western system, the revocable nature of legitimacy in both systems enables modern elites to resolve intraclass disputes without having to resort to mass violence. Expulsion from the institutions of legitimacy is possible without death and can be instantaneous since unlike birth-descent legitimacy which only ends upon death, removal of a credential or Party membership doesn’t require the individual to be found, seized and killed. A few keystrokes and boom! - virtual death.
This ease and swiftness of delegitimization means class dissidents are less likely to be able to garner and maintain enough popular support necessary to violently contest for supremacy.
While beneficial to the ruling class, this removes participation in the informal violence of intraclass conflict within the ruling elite as a path of advancement or accommodation for the ruled. The ruled are no longer needed to maintain the intra-class balance.
We need pitchforks. Lots of pitchforks.
The ruled populace’s sole remaining leverage is to act as members of the formal security institutions of the society such as the armed forces or law enforcement.The structure of the armed forces mimics the same control structure as other social institutions with the officers corps overpopulated with members of the ruling elites and the bulk of recruits from the other strata of society.
In the US, the bulk of the enlisted recruits - 80% - 90% of the total - are from households under $100k annual income. With an average income of slightly over $50,000, these recruits’ household incomes are significantly below the top 10% annual income average of $173,000 .
Doing the bulk of the fighting and dying has meant that the ruled populace has enough strategic value to the ruling elite as violent counterbalances to external elites that accommodations in energy distribution and class membership are a grudging but recurring feature of political history.
There’s a roughly direct relationship between conflict severity and the level of accommodation. The violent global paroxysms of the 20th century (WWI, WW2, the Korean War) saw the advent of socialized medicine), the GI Bill and other concessions throughout Western Europe and the Anglosphere. The Cold War saw the further growth of the welfare state in the societies of the West as well the advent of a series of development/aid programs directed towards the developing world. The ruling elites of the West and the Communist bloc competed with accommodations to shore up their popular support domestically and globally in case of another world conflict that might be nuclear and apocalyptic in nature.
The Vietnam War represented the beginning of the end of this type of popular accommodation in the United States. The usual inequities of socioeconomic status vs combat exposure were hyper-magnified as college and health related exemptions allowed many scions and aspiring members of the ruling elite to avoid the conflict altogether.
This left the armed forces composed of draftees - disproportionately from the lower socioeconomic classes - commanded by the few volunteer members of the ruling elite. The results were disastrous. Social justice protests, McNamara’s Morons, ‘fragging’ and other disciplinary and performance issues - caused by the imbalanced force structure - proved such a toxic stew that the US moved to an all-volunteer force in 1973.
The move to a professional army removed the need for broad-based popular consent to ensure force cohesion during conflict (or so the theory went). And with the decreased need for broad-based support, the US ruling elites began to contract the post-World War accommodations and welfare-state.
First to suffer was veteran treatment as the soldiers exposed to Agent Orange were denied compensation and care for the myriad health problems resulting from their exposure. The 1980s saw the beginning of the end for The Great Society welfare state and culminated with the ‘end of welfare as we know it’ being signed into law by President Bill Clinton in the 1990s. Offshoring began in the 1980s and accelerated with NAFTA and China’s accession to the WTO. This coupled with the Reagan-Bush-Trump tax cuts further eviscerated the middle class which typically provides the bulk of armed forces recruits.
Initial impacts on operational readiness appeared during the first Gulf War, Afghanistan and the second Gulf War but were ameliorated by extended and repetitive use of reserve forces. However, recruiting has plummeted across the board and the soldiers that fought the last three American conflicts are aging out of service eligibility. In 2022 and 2023, it is projected that all branches except the Space Force will have failed to meet recruitment goals.
The likelihood that new recruitment techniques will improve the situation are grim as the Army estimates that only 23% of the 17-to-24 year olds in the US would even qualify as recruits. The other 77% are unable to pass the basic armed forces entrance exam or are too overweight/obese to meet minimum fitness requirements.
A shrinking pool of recruits has not impaired the ruling elites’ willingness to engage in armed conflict to achieve their geopolitical goals. Currently, the United States and its NATO allies are engaged in a proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. The United States, Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, Japan and the Philippines stand on the verge of conflict over Taiwan and access to the South China Sea.
All of the actors in these brewing or ongoing conflicts are experiencing some degree of demographic decline with severe population declines projected for Russia, Ukraine, China, South Korea, Japan and much of Europe. The United States is projected to be buoyed by immigration however the native birth rate has already plummeted below replacement levels.
This leaves the ruling elites with the confounding situation where the current economic and political institutions they control have ennervated the ruled populace to the point it impairs their ability to project power externally. Rebuilding the middle class that provides the bulk of recruits would necessitate major structural changes that would greatly lessen their class’ control and at least a generation of time for enough children to be born to erase the recruitment deficit.
Reversing 40-years of rigged economic and political policy alone would represent a Herculean task. But couple this with natural class resistance to any loss of control egged on by the psychopathy of the class leaders, the necessary changes are improbable to the point of impossible.
With no change and conflicts on the immediate horizon, the ruling elites have one solution left to them to replace the dispossessed recruitment pools of the middle class - artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons.
Move over humans. It’s time for something scarier.
A.I. powered weapons offer a number of advantages over human combatants. Not only does A.I. already demonstrate tactical superiority against human opponents in simulation, but its unique nature is particularly appealing to the ruling elites.Without conscience or kinship ties or moral safeguards, the A.I. soldiers will pursue any objective regardless of the dubious nature of the orders. History would have been markedly different if A.I. soldiers had been present in the Soviet Union during the hardline coup against Gorbachev or available to the Arab rulers during the Arab Spring. Implementing Asimov’s Laws of Robotics would be foolhardy in a combat android but even if implemented, the noted problems of AI control could result in unintended casualties.
Additionally, as non-humans, casualties no longer equal declining morale in the armed forces and society as a whole. The Vietnam War demonstrated the impact of seeing body bags of soldiers returned home. During the Afghanistan, Gulf and Iraq wars, this type of footage was banned (until 2009) to stop the type of social unrest that occurred during the Vietnam War when the public was faced with the direct cost of conflict. It is doubtful that humans will see injured or killed A.I. soldiers in the same empathetic light as they do human casualties. Risky missions start to have acceptable loss levels and this change enables more aggression on the part of ruling elites.
But the greatest advantage of the new A.I. soldier is that there is absolutely no need for accommodation by the ruling elites to the ruled populace to maintain their base of power. A newer, remorseless and completely obedient purveyor of violence is now available to the ruling elite. It makes no demands beyond bare functioning and feels no emotional remorse for immoral acts.
These A.I. soldiers that are capable of maintaining the developed world’s strategic parity to the global masses’ numbers can be also used internally to quell any possible dissent or mass movement. A.I. generally offers unlimited potential for surveillance and internal class discipline but coupled with advances in robotics, it will offer an ethics-free physical enforcer to combat protests like Sri Lanka, Canada, the Netherlands and the United States. There are no repercussions available for the A.I. soldier since they have no personhood or control so even the spotty administration of ICC justice isn’t a deterrent. Already law enforcement agencies in Los Angeles, New York and other jurisdictions are deploying robotic dogs - which is eerily reminiscent of the usage of attack dogs by oppressors through history. An A.I. soldier that was used for similar purposes would have no fear of punishment or injury or fear at all unlike the officer or even the dog in past situations.
Attempts to control this new technology and A.I. soldiers are manifesting in calls for A.I. regulation and licensing by the ruling elites of the US and Western Europe. The potential for positive change through a human-A.I. partnership is tremendous and widespread availability has the potential to provide the ruled populace with substantial technical and economic advancements without the overhead of the ruling elite. Citing the danger of extinction by A.I. while simultaneously continuing development of the technology highlights how disingenuous the call for regulation is by the ruling elites. In reality this is a call to restrict any dangers presented to their institutional control of education, finance and healthcare as well as their monopoly of violence within society.
The future is grim for the ruled populaces of humanity. At a time that technology could power the solutions to climate change, economic collapse and space exploration, the technology is being evolved and restricted to prop up the ruling class’ domination. And with no bargaining chips left - whether as producers or gangs or soldiers - the real extinction crisis may not be for humanity as a whole but for the ruled.
Appendix: A Classical Case of Control
Pre-Marian reforms
In the pre-Marian reform Roman Republic, strict divisions were made between patricians )and plebeians with severe restrictions on political and religious participation placed on the plebeian class. Military service was strictly limited to property owners to ensure that the landowning class maintained a monopoly on violence. A credo of tribal superiority ranking Roman -> Latin -> Italian -> non-peninsulars was embodied legally in tiered political membership of Citizen -> Latin Rights holder -> Foreigner. Membership was zealously policed by officials called censors who were initially exclusively patrician.The patricians of Rome were successful in maintaining their monopoly of power until a series of secessio plebis (Latin: withdrawal of the commoners or secession of the plebs) or general strikes by the plebeian class forced the patricians to cede some power, privileges and land to the plebeian class. Faced with complete economic standstill, a series of accommodations were made to maintain the viability of the power structure itself.
This cession of power was largely illusory though. While technical class distinctions were removed, the old patrician class and the wealthiest of the plebeian class merged through co-option and intermarriage to form a new nobility that enforced their new collective will through property qualifications restricting political participation.
This new nobility fought any further accommodations to middle and lower classes such as the Gracchan, Marian and Livian reforms. The brothers Gracchi and Livius Drusus) were killed and Marius died in the middle of a civil war with Sulla and his noble adherents.
Conquest and the resulting ubiquity of slavery destroyed any further economic leverage the lower classes had. With literally millions of slaves now cheaply available, laborers, craftspeople, shopkeepers and domestic employees were dispossessed of their livelihoods as slaves replaced them in their jobs. Small landholders were driven off their farms and into the urban stews as the treasure of conquest inflated the price of real estate astronomically.
Post-Marian reforms
The Marian reforms left one avenue for the lower classes - the military. As the rich and powerful (Marius v Sulla, Pompey v Caesar, Augustus v Antony) fought each other for supremacy within their own class, the poor were courted with numerous concessions and bonuses to serve as soldiers for the powerful.While always at the whim of the commander (barring assassination) who was always a member of the ruling class, military necessity served as a check on the ruler's ambitions. Armies need soldiers and another ambitious member of the same class could always bribe or recruit soldiers with better terms to topple the current leader. A degree of class balance was a necessity to preserve the power structure.
For those who couldn’t or wouldn’t join the army, panem et circenses (bread and circuses) dulled the need for rebellion. Gladiator games, free food distributions and occasional money distributions maintained a docile subsistence-based population that remained fairly quiescent until the late Western Empire despite depredations by the landed elite and nobility.
The system despite all its inequities suffered along for multiple centuries until external pressures and the depredations of the nobility overwhelmed the economic and military capacity of the Empire and resulted in its fall in 476 CE. But it’s important to note that the system wasn’t overthrown from within but overwhelmed from the outside.
2023.06.07 22:11 HelloLurkerHere One night in June of 1976 over a million and half people in Canary Islands (Spain) witnessed 'a gigantic explosion of light' in the sky. It became part of the local UFO narrative almost immediately. Declassified documents in 1994 hinted, however, at an earthly origin, a 2001 article confirmed it.
Background
Canary Islands is a Spanish archipelago of volcanic nature located in the eastern Atlantic ocean, just west of southern Morocco. The chain of islands extends for approximately 490 kilometers (300 miles).
Canary Islands is both geologically and climatologically almost identical to Hawaii, and as such, international tourism has been the main pillar of its economy since the 1960s.
The Event
At around 10:15 PM of June 22nd, 1976, emergency services in all the main seven islands received a flood of calls, with people reporting having seen a strange and frightening phenomenon taking place in the night sky. Most of these callers described what they were seeing as 'a gigantic explosion of light' or 'a massive ball of fire', and all of them said the phenomenon seemed to be taking place somewhere far in the west. These accounts were quickly confirmed true by local authorities, since the 'explosion of light' in question shone for several minutes before dissipating.
Many witnesses also added having seen one or two much smaller red lights moving strangely before the 'explosion' took place -rising from the horizon or from behind the mountains at very high speed, although others added that the lights flew following 'a zig-zag trajectory'.
No sound was heard or reported regarding the phenomenon, and no consequences seemed to follow except for a frightened population.
A foreign tourist vacationing in the island of Gran Canaria took the only known legit picture available of the phenomenon, from the balcony of his hotel room in Maspalomas. Here you can see a bigger version of the picture with enhanced contrast.
Here's a drawing extracted from an official report made by the Spanish Air Force. The drawing depicts a description of the event made with the information gathered from witnesses reports in the western coast of Gran Canaria. The mountains in the drawing are a depiction of the silhouette of Tenerife, the island immediately west of Gran Canaria. In order to understand the extreme magnitude of the 'explosion of light', please take into account that Tenerife is 70 kilometers (44 miles) away and its tallest peak -Mount Teide, which is in fact Spain's tallest mountain- is 3,718 meters tall (12,198 feet). Here's a real picture of the landscape depicted in the drawing, for a better perspective.
Hong Kong's bulk carrier vessel Osaka Bay was sailing from Capetown (South Africa) to Southampton (United Kingdom). The event took place when she was some 400 kilometers (250 miles) south of the island of La Gomera, and her crew did also witness the phenomenon. Here's a drawing made out of their witness reports.
The crew of the Spanish Navy's corvette Atrevida (F-61) observed the phenomenon as she was sailing just south of the island of Fuerteventura. Her captain's account of the event;
"At 22:27 local time of June 22nd it was seen, for the first time, a bright light of an intense bluish yellow color, taking off and rising in altitude towards our position... Once it reached certain height (15º-18º) it stood still, turning its light projection and showing its light source. It remained like that for approximately two minutes, before bursting into a large circle of bright bluish yellow light that remained in that position for forty minutes even after the original preceding phenomenon had faded away.
Two minutes later the light source split, its lower half being smaller and standing in the middle of the circle of light, turning into a bluish cloud as the split half that had originated this bluish mass faded away. The upper half gained altitude while describing a fast but irregular spiraling trajectory, vanishing afterwards. None of these movements had any effect whatsoever on the initial circle of light, whose features remained the same, partially illuminating land and sea, which leads to believe that it wasn't an object far in the distance, but rather close".
Here's the translation of local newspaper excerpts detailing the event;
"It was spotted between 10:15 and 10:30 PM and, according to one of our journalists who has his residence at Valle de Aridane (La Palma island), at that time he observed something that looked like a rocket emerging from the sea and flying towards El Time peak shining with an intense red light. The same phenomenon was spotted in Tazacorte (in La Palma island too). The ferry Villa de Agaete, sailing from Las Palmas, could observe a great shining at exactly 10:20 PM, shortly before docking in Santa Cruz de Tenerife. The shining, which lasted about five minutes, appeared like a rocket that had come out of the sea". - El Día (June 23rd, 1976)
"Last night, at around half past ten, a strange object was spotted from several points of our region, especially in the areas of Gáldar and Telde (Gran Canaria), where most phone calls we received in that regard were from. Our callers explained to us that it was a round object that grew massively in size as it rose, clearly defined before it began to fade.
The aforementioned phenomenon began as a couple of red objects that moved in zig-zag, forming into some sort of spiral whose lower half ended in three clearly differentiated but overlaying stripes with some degree of separation between them. They were of a very bright red color and faded gradually. On top of these stripes there was what looked like two powerful blue focal lights, which began to diminish in intensity too before turning into a thin haze afterwards". - La Provincia (June 23rd, 1976)
Thanks to these accounts and description of the events, calculations could be made in order to ascertain the phenomenon's origins. At the moment of its beginning (which many witnesses described as a rocket taking off) the sun was already 13.7º under the horizon and its azimuth angle was 307º (northwest). Setting a hypothetical POV in the geographical center of the archipelago (28.50º N, 15.75º W, just north of Gran Canaria, it was calculated that during it's first phase (the 'rocket lights') the phenomenon was located some 762 kilometers (473 miles) straight west, at an approximate altitude of 46 kilometers (28 miles). By the end of its final phase (the 'explosion of light') it had traveled to a point located at around 1,062 kilometers (662 miles) west and had risen to a final altitude of 90 kilometers (56 miles).
These calculations became a very important piece of data, we'll get back to them later.
The UFO/Aliens narrative (AKA the press cherry-picks the statement of one particularly imaginative witness in order to sell a story of very questionable credibility)
Being the 1970s, almost immediately certain sectors of the press began talking about UFO -and subsequently about aliens, even though there was no further evidence to suggest such thing. The local authorities (the Army especially) focused their efforts into reassuring the population that there was nothing to fear, while at the same time gathering all the information they could gather in order to investigate the phenomenon.
In June of 1994, exactly eighteen years after that night, the Spanish Army declassified the 107-pages long investigation report of what by then it had been baptized as the "OVNI de Canarias 22/06/1976" ("Canary Islands' 06/22/1976 UFO"). Back then very few people in Spain had internet access, and as such the release of these documents went unnoticed for most people. However, many journalists rushed to get a copy of the report, and many of these worked for UFO/paranormal magazines of dubious scientific accuracy. And, aware of the kind of reaction they wanted to generate from the public they target, they focused in just one part of the report; Dr. Padrón's story.
Francisco Julio Padrón León (who passed away in 2013) was a general practitioner that lived and had his office in the rural municipality of Gáldar, which is located precisely in the northwestern part of the island of Gran Canaria (and precisely, where a lot of people reported witnessing the phenomenon. Unlike most witnessed, however, Padrón told Spanish authorities a much more extravagant version of the events.
That night he had been called in person to check on a local patient at her home, and the doctor had called a taxi in order to reach the patient's residence; Padrón lived in the town of Guía, and the patient lived at a small parish some 10 kilometers away (6 miles) named Las Rosas. Padrón, his companion and the taxi driver claimed having observed the phenomenon when the car was covering the last two kilometers of the route (at that point, a very narrow and barely paved rural road). Or more specifically, Padrón and the taxi driver claimed having bumped into it; because, according to the statement, at that moment the car's headlights illuminated a sphere that was floating right in front of them. The Padrón and the taxi driver described it as measuring some 30 meters (98 feet), slightly bright and slightly translucent. They (the doctor, especially) described seeing two humanoid entities inside the sphere, surrounded by what looked to be inner aluminum structural parts of the sphere. These figures were, per their statements, between 2.5 and 3 meters tall (8'2" to 9'10"), one taller than the other, and they were dressed in red skin-tight suits. Padrón claimed that these beings stood facing each other, apparently interacting among them but didn't seem to notice his or the taxi driver's presence. It then began to grow in size until (his words) "becoming as big as a 20-story building" and began ascending. At this point of his statement he said he went to check on her patient, after which he told all people present at the patients' home, inviting everyone to go outside and check by themselves what he claimed he had seen. By the time everyone joined Dr. Padrón to watch, the sphere was already very big, standing high in the sky and then it flew away at extreme speed ("faster than any aircraft I've seen in my life", Padrón said in the report) leaving a trail of blue smoke behind before vanishing in the distance, towards Tenerife island.
In his individual report, the taxi driver made just a very skimp corroboration of Padrón's statement, omitting most details of his version of the phenomenon. It was just a few sentences long. The taxi driver was a man in his sixties (and wore glasses) of very little formal education -in fact, his preliminary handwritten statement had to be redacted to correct numerous grammar and spelling mistakes.
As for the companion (a relative of the patient, who was traveling in the backseat), this man only describes seeing "intense bright light everywhere" and noticing "both the doctor and the taxi driver's agitation". He claimed the amount of light, plus the fact that by sitting in the backseat the taxi driver and the doctor's bodies blocked his view, hadn't allowed him to see what Padrón claimed having witnessed.
The declassified document contained many more witness reports gathered from the same area, but none of them matched Dr. Padrón's story about a sphere with two humanoids figures in it; every other description -most of them provided by locals- mentions the same enormous disc of light in the west night sky. A car mechanic and his wife described it as "a car's headlight thrice as large as the full moon". A school teacher mentioned having seen it from his house's window through a pair of binoculars when it began to fade, noticing its "fog-like appearance, and the night stars could be seen through", and mentioning what looked like a couple of bluish beams inside. A farmer explained in his statement that it looked like "a fire spot", he too mentioned seeing "two blue lines" in it. Not even the sick woman Padrón had come to provide medical attention to nor her relatives confirmed the Dr.'s description of the phenomenon, matching instead everyone else's.
That didn't stop the journalists working for UFO/paranormal-themed magazines or even some journalists working for reputable newspapers from disregarding all these credible witnesses and instead focusing on the most outlandish one; Dr. Padrón. In summer of 1994, several of these Spanish magazines like Enigmas, Año Cero or Más Allá rushed to publish a drawing depicting Padrón's description of the 'humanoid figures dressed in red' in their articles, not only making absolutely no mention of any of the other witnesses but also claimed that the propulsion system of the alleged 'alien spacecraft' had scorched a nearby onion field -the area is full of that type of crops- and that posterior chemical analysis of the scorched terrain had yielded wildly unusual results. We'll come back to this point later.
Sketch depicting Padrón's (unique, literally) description of the event. Yes, someone from the Army - more specifically from the Air Force- was tasked with sitting down next to this guy and spending a good deal of time drawing whatever ludicrous thing Padrón felt like coming up with.
Something worth mentioning; these publications made heavy emphasis on Padrón's education -he was a GP, after all. As in, as extraordinary as his claims were, these were being made by a man of a high level of education, intelligent and therefore (in the eyes of many) automatically worth of credibility. In fact, the patient's relative traveling in the taxi's backseat -a farmhand that had never received formal schooling and was illiterate- said in his witness report that one of the reasons why he did not question Padrón's statement was precisely the abysmal difference in education between him and the doctor, and kind of assumed that if an educated man like Padrón said that such thing had indeed happened, then it must have been true.
A local newspaper interviewed Dr. Padrón shortly after the documents were declassified. And by then, eighteen years after that night, Padrón added some more details to his already bizarre account, providing these journalists with something that wouldn't have been out of place in an episode of The X-Files (which back in 1994 had begun to be broadcasted in Spain, with significant success). Back in 1976 Padrón had already added in his statement that he did not feel fear but 'a strange sense of wellbeing and excitement' in his encounter with the alleged spacecraft; now he was also saying that these beings -which never communicated with him in any way, per his account- had not only the ability to erase anyone's memories off their brains, but they also can "make you see whatever they want you to do for months or years, replacing an 'energy' [his word] in your brain". If these statements weren't absurd enough, Dr. Padrón warned the journalists about not taking him seriously, because in the last three years he "had observed that anyone who had been skeptical of my statements and hurt my credibility in public has passed away within six or seven months, all of them to cancer, eight people in total so far".
Although the documents that included the description of his ludicrous story hadn't been declassified until 1994, ever since 1976 many journalists had managed to get in touch with Padrón and hear his story -the doctor himself wasn't exactly quiet about it either -and some of these are allegedly the cancer victims Padrón would've been referring to. There's no way to check the veracity of that, since the only source of that statement was Padrón himself.
Between 1976 and 1994 the doctor's story circulated in a somewhat obscure manner, being referred to in some UFO articles here and there -and adding their own artistic depictions of his outlandish story. Padrón was already telling any 'paranormal' journalist willing to listen about the scorched onion field. Turned out, back in June of 1976 a farmer in the municipality of Guía did indeed notice an area in one of his onion crops that seemed to have been burned, but that man had specified that that hadn't happened until the morning of June 24th, a good day and half after Padrón's alleged 'alien encounter'. What is more, although the cause of these burns couldn't be ascertained, they were indistinguishable from fire damage. To this day it's thought that these burnt onion plants were nothing but the result of vandalism or a prank. Some UFO skepticism authors have raised the possibility of the doctor himself being responsible.
Picture of one of the many onion fields in Guía and Gáldar. To this day, Dr. Padrón's 'scorched onion field' remains a running joke among the older residents in these municipalities.
At the time Padrón even managed, out of sheer insistence, to get that soil tested. Surprisingly to no one, all chemical, physical and radiological analyses performed yielded no unusual results. The sampling and testing was conducted by Hungarian-Spanish physician Alejandro Carlos de Gyorko-Gyorkos, who at the time was curious about paranormal phenomena and had interviewed Padrón many times in 1976. According to a journalist for Naukas (A Spanish online science and technology magazine that specializes in skepticism and debunking of pseudoscience), in 1992 Gyorko-Gyorkos described Padrón as a man that "interprets everything he comes up with as real". By 1994 Padrón was also claiming that the Spanish Air Force had threatened him with legal action to silence him, and that Gyorko-Gyorkos was a man whose "ethics he'd rather not talk about". Padrón had never mentioned these alleged legal threats at any point before June of that year, precisely once the documents were declassified, a coincidence that hadn't gone unnoticed.
Some skepticism authors have elucubrated about the possible inspiration for Padrón's 'tall men in dressed in red spacesuits'. Not exactly very original.
Explanation (1994 and 2001)
The 1976 document concludes that the origen of the 22/06/976 UFO -although in reality the Spanish Air force used then the acronym FANI (Fenómeno Aéreo No Identificado', 'Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon') when referring to it- was unknown. In 1994 these paranormal journalists presented such conclusion as an automatic evidence of aliens, or at least UFOs in the sense popular culture depicts then. In reality, as anyone can notice upon checking the report, 'unknown' means precisely that; unknown. At no point in the report the authors bring up rebuttals for any possible logical or rational explanation, but rather they conclude that back in 1976 there was just not enough evidence to provide an accurate explanation of its origin.
The same report contains the transcription of precisely Dr. Gyorko-Gyorkos's opinion about Dr. Padrón's reasoning (safe to assume, by then had already made up his mind about the man) in a military court. In the transcription, and in what looks like a generous maneuver to dismiss Padrón's claims without going as far to humiliate him, Gyorko-Gyorkos explains a military judge that that night Dr. Padrón, possibly overworked and sleep-deprived, misremembered what had seen and his fatigued psyche had create a mixed recollection with what he had seen and what had crossed his mind. As for the taxi driver, this man was probably highly impressionable -apparently the Dr. had behaved in a very excited manner during the phenomenon- and thus in a way Padrón had 'passed' his delusional belief onto him. The military court ruled that "Padrón's credibility could not, for the time being, be corroborated".
Of course, at this point of this writeup a question still lingers; what was whatever thing close to a million and half people saw in the night sky back on June 22nd, 1976? First, let's go over the world's state of affairs at the time, because this is one of these 'mysteries' in which history had been hinting at the answer almost from the beginning;
In 1976 the world was still amidst of a low-key conflict between two superpowers with lots of political tensions; the United States (plus NATO) versus the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (plus other members of the Warsaw Pact). AKA, Cold War. As part of the Western Bloc, at the time Spain had been a long-time ally of NATO. However, the country wouldn't become a NATO member itself until 1982 -which was so controversial within Spain that a referendum would be held in 1986 questioning Spanish people's desire to remain in the military alliance.
As such, while Spain was a Western ally, back in 1976 it was not really 'in the game' yet, especially when taking into account that, unlike in other countries, NATO membership wasn't that welcome. Please notice the year the Spanish army declassified the documents; 1994. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 (and with it , the fall of the Iron Curtain) helped lower the stakes this international poker game, and as such the world would learn about all sorts of crazy things that had been going on at both sides of the conflict in absolute secrecy.
Earlier in this writeup there is a data-based description of the phenomenon's behavior, but most importantly, it's ballistic trajectory. Adding to that, countless witnesses had described seeing either one or a couple of lights 'taking off like a rocket'. Let's remember; it had been ascertained that it originated at about 700 kilometers west and had moved further west in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean while reaching an altitude of 90 kilometers -which is about the lower thermosphere. This had already raised the first suspicions among the members of the Spanish intelligence services, suspicions that gained weight in 1994 -and that likely led to the declassification of the report- when much clearer and straightforward communication between the United States' government and Spain's allowed for a more open investigation of the sort of testing the Americans were engaging in. In 2001 an article of research journalism, coauthored by science journalists Ricardo Campo and Vicente-Juan Ballester Olmos finally identified what was behind the 1976 aerial phenomenon.
Campo and Ballester had already noticed its ballistic trajectory calculated in 1976. In 1999, suspecting already who (country) was the 'culprit', they accessed Jonathan McDowell's database of ballistic missile launches. Previous to that Campo and Ballester had failed to find any useful information in NASA's archives, as none of the launches in their registry matched the evidence, and prior to that -right after the 1994 declassification, in fact- they had traveled to Moscow looking for the possible explanation there. Russian military authorities had adamantly denied their involvement in the phenomena, which directed the investigators towards other leads (while at the same time not disregarding the possibility of Russia being behind it after all.
Finally, Campo and Ballester bumped into these two rows of the database. First column indicates the launch identification number. Second and third, the date (in the Julian and Gregorian calendars. Fourth is GMT time (which, adjusting for a compilation error, coincides with Canary Islands' GMT+1 local time when the phenomenon took place). The fifth column tells the type of missile, the sixth on identifies the launch platform and finally the seventh one indicates who was responsible for the launch.
Simply put, the information in these rows means; on June 22nd, 1976, two Poseidon C3 thermonuclear missiles were launched from US Navy's submarine USS Von Steuben), at 20:16 and 20:17 GTM.
The database does not include location (that information remains classified) but during their research Campo and Ballester learned from McDowell himself that the US Navy's eastern test range covers from Cape Canaveral (Florida, US) all the way Ascension Island. The location of the 1976's phenomenon falls well within such range.
From here, Campos and Ballester offered an explanation of its optics. The Poseidon C3 missile carries several 40-kiloton nuclear warheads (normally ten) -for comparison, Little Boy was a single 15-kiloton bomb. Once the two 400-kiloton missiles detonated in the thermosphere, the quick expansion of extremely hot atmospheric gases reflected the sunlight back to Earth, even though by then in Canary Islands the sun was already well below the horizon and the sky was pitch black; at 90 kilometers of altitude, these expanding gases were still in direct path of the sunlight. This reflection is what made the phenomenon appear so bright and big in spite of the 700+ kilometers of distance between witnesses and its source.
Campo and Ballester's article provided also an explanation for other similar events -albeit not that espectacular as the one pertaining this writeup- that had taken place in the islands between 1973 and 1979. All except one were found to be the result of other American thermonuclear tests, with the exception of this one seen south of the archipelago in 1979 -and finally acknowledged by Russia in 2017, although they did not explain what exactly it was.
Conclusion
TL;DR: It was a couple of thermonuclear missiles launched in secrecy by the US Navy in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. The 'aliens' witness was, to put it mildy, an individual with an extreme tendency to make ludicrous statements and a marked need to be the centre of attention.
Campo and Ballester's work is available online for free, and anyone who speak Spanish can check the story of their investigation for themselves.
This is not to say that the whole 'aliens' narrative died down. To this day, the story of the 1976 phenomenon continues to be shared sometimes in media as 'proof' of UFO/aliens, even though it's literally neither -coincidentally, failing to mention the vast amount of evidence pointing at a thermonuclear test. In June of 2016 several newspapers published articles remembering the phenomenon in its 40th anniversary, and pretty much all of them reminded the reader right from the headline that the 'mystery' had long been solved.
Links and Sources
"Two red giants riding a missile" - Excellent article in the aforementioned online magazine Naukas written by Ricardo Campo himself on the phenomenon (Spanish)
The Spanish Army's declassified document on the event. It can be downloaded for free as a 107-pages long PDF
2016 Article (Spanish)
submitted by HelloLurkerHere to UnresolvedMysteries [link] [comments]
Canary Islands is a Spanish archipelago of volcanic nature located in the eastern Atlantic ocean, just west of southern Morocco. The chain of islands extends for approximately 490 kilometers (300 miles).
Canary Islands is both geologically and climatologically almost identical to Hawaii, and as such, international tourism has been the main pillar of its economy since the 1960s.
The Event
At around 10:15 PM of June 22nd, 1976, emergency services in all the main seven islands received a flood of calls, with people reporting having seen a strange and frightening phenomenon taking place in the night sky. Most of these callers described what they were seeing as 'a gigantic explosion of light' or 'a massive ball of fire', and all of them said the phenomenon seemed to be taking place somewhere far in the west. These accounts were quickly confirmed true by local authorities, since the 'explosion of light' in question shone for several minutes before dissipating.
Many witnesses also added having seen one or two much smaller red lights moving strangely before the 'explosion' took place -rising from the horizon or from behind the mountains at very high speed, although others added that the lights flew following 'a zig-zag trajectory'.
No sound was heard or reported regarding the phenomenon, and no consequences seemed to follow except for a frightened population.
A foreign tourist vacationing in the island of Gran Canaria took the only known legit picture available of the phenomenon, from the balcony of his hotel room in Maspalomas. Here you can see a bigger version of the picture with enhanced contrast.
Here's a drawing extracted from an official report made by the Spanish Air Force. The drawing depicts a description of the event made with the information gathered from witnesses reports in the western coast of Gran Canaria. The mountains in the drawing are a depiction of the silhouette of Tenerife, the island immediately west of Gran Canaria. In order to understand the extreme magnitude of the 'explosion of light', please take into account that Tenerife is 70 kilometers (44 miles) away and its tallest peak -Mount Teide, which is in fact Spain's tallest mountain- is 3,718 meters tall (12,198 feet). Here's a real picture of the landscape depicted in the drawing, for a better perspective.
Hong Kong's bulk carrier vessel Osaka Bay was sailing from Capetown (South Africa) to Southampton (United Kingdom). The event took place when she was some 400 kilometers (250 miles) south of the island of La Gomera, and her crew did also witness the phenomenon. Here's a drawing made out of their witness reports.
The crew of the Spanish Navy's corvette Atrevida (F-61) observed the phenomenon as she was sailing just south of the island of Fuerteventura. Her captain's account of the event;
"At 22:27 local time of June 22nd it was seen, for the first time, a bright light of an intense bluish yellow color, taking off and rising in altitude towards our position... Once it reached certain height (15º-18º) it stood still, turning its light projection and showing its light source. It remained like that for approximately two minutes, before bursting into a large circle of bright bluish yellow light that remained in that position for forty minutes even after the original preceding phenomenon had faded away.
Two minutes later the light source split, its lower half being smaller and standing in the middle of the circle of light, turning into a bluish cloud as the split half that had originated this bluish mass faded away. The upper half gained altitude while describing a fast but irregular spiraling trajectory, vanishing afterwards. None of these movements had any effect whatsoever on the initial circle of light, whose features remained the same, partially illuminating land and sea, which leads to believe that it wasn't an object far in the distance, but rather close".
Here's the translation of local newspaper excerpts detailing the event;
"It was spotted between 10:15 and 10:30 PM and, according to one of our journalists who has his residence at Valle de Aridane (La Palma island), at that time he observed something that looked like a rocket emerging from the sea and flying towards El Time peak shining with an intense red light. The same phenomenon was spotted in Tazacorte (in La Palma island too). The ferry Villa de Agaete, sailing from Las Palmas, could observe a great shining at exactly 10:20 PM, shortly before docking in Santa Cruz de Tenerife. The shining, which lasted about five minutes, appeared like a rocket that had come out of the sea". - El Día (June 23rd, 1976)
"Last night, at around half past ten, a strange object was spotted from several points of our region, especially in the areas of Gáldar and Telde (Gran Canaria), where most phone calls we received in that regard were from. Our callers explained to us that it was a round object that grew massively in size as it rose, clearly defined before it began to fade.
The aforementioned phenomenon began as a couple of red objects that moved in zig-zag, forming into some sort of spiral whose lower half ended in three clearly differentiated but overlaying stripes with some degree of separation between them. They were of a very bright red color and faded gradually. On top of these stripes there was what looked like two powerful blue focal lights, which began to diminish in intensity too before turning into a thin haze afterwards". - La Provincia (June 23rd, 1976)
Thanks to these accounts and description of the events, calculations could be made in order to ascertain the phenomenon's origins. At the moment of its beginning (which many witnesses described as a rocket taking off) the sun was already 13.7º under the horizon and its azimuth angle was 307º (northwest). Setting a hypothetical POV in the geographical center of the archipelago (28.50º N, 15.75º W, just north of Gran Canaria, it was calculated that during it's first phase (the 'rocket lights') the phenomenon was located some 762 kilometers (473 miles) straight west, at an approximate altitude of 46 kilometers (28 miles). By the end of its final phase (the 'explosion of light') it had traveled to a point located at around 1,062 kilometers (662 miles) west and had risen to a final altitude of 90 kilometers (56 miles).
These calculations became a very important piece of data, we'll get back to them later.
The UFO/Aliens narrative (AKA the press cherry-picks the statement of one particularly imaginative witness in order to sell a story of very questionable credibility)
Being the 1970s, almost immediately certain sectors of the press began talking about UFO -and subsequently about aliens, even though there was no further evidence to suggest such thing. The local authorities (the Army especially) focused their efforts into reassuring the population that there was nothing to fear, while at the same time gathering all the information they could gather in order to investigate the phenomenon.
In June of 1994, exactly eighteen years after that night, the Spanish Army declassified the 107-pages long investigation report of what by then it had been baptized as the "OVNI de Canarias 22/06/1976" ("Canary Islands' 06/22/1976 UFO"). Back then very few people in Spain had internet access, and as such the release of these documents went unnoticed for most people. However, many journalists rushed to get a copy of the report, and many of these worked for UFO/paranormal magazines of dubious scientific accuracy. And, aware of the kind of reaction they wanted to generate from the public they target, they focused in just one part of the report; Dr. Padrón's story.
Francisco Julio Padrón León (who passed away in 2013) was a general practitioner that lived and had his office in the rural municipality of Gáldar, which is located precisely in the northwestern part of the island of Gran Canaria (and precisely, where a lot of people reported witnessing the phenomenon. Unlike most witnessed, however, Padrón told Spanish authorities a much more extravagant version of the events.
That night he had been called in person to check on a local patient at her home, and the doctor had called a taxi in order to reach the patient's residence; Padrón lived in the town of Guía, and the patient lived at a small parish some 10 kilometers away (6 miles) named Las Rosas. Padrón, his companion and the taxi driver claimed having observed the phenomenon when the car was covering the last two kilometers of the route (at that point, a very narrow and barely paved rural road). Or more specifically, Padrón and the taxi driver claimed having bumped into it; because, according to the statement, at that moment the car's headlights illuminated a sphere that was floating right in front of them. The Padrón and the taxi driver described it as measuring some 30 meters (98 feet), slightly bright and slightly translucent. They (the doctor, especially) described seeing two humanoid entities inside the sphere, surrounded by what looked to be inner aluminum structural parts of the sphere. These figures were, per their statements, between 2.5 and 3 meters tall (8'2" to 9'10"), one taller than the other, and they were dressed in red skin-tight suits. Padrón claimed that these beings stood facing each other, apparently interacting among them but didn't seem to notice his or the taxi driver's presence. It then began to grow in size until (his words) "becoming as big as a 20-story building" and began ascending. At this point of his statement he said he went to check on her patient, after which he told all people present at the patients' home, inviting everyone to go outside and check by themselves what he claimed he had seen. By the time everyone joined Dr. Padrón to watch, the sphere was already very big, standing high in the sky and then it flew away at extreme speed ("faster than any aircraft I've seen in my life", Padrón said in the report) leaving a trail of blue smoke behind before vanishing in the distance, towards Tenerife island.
In his individual report, the taxi driver made just a very skimp corroboration of Padrón's statement, omitting most details of his version of the phenomenon. It was just a few sentences long. The taxi driver was a man in his sixties (and wore glasses) of very little formal education -in fact, his preliminary handwritten statement had to be redacted to correct numerous grammar and spelling mistakes.
As for the companion (a relative of the patient, who was traveling in the backseat), this man only describes seeing "intense bright light everywhere" and noticing "both the doctor and the taxi driver's agitation". He claimed the amount of light, plus the fact that by sitting in the backseat the taxi driver and the doctor's bodies blocked his view, hadn't allowed him to see what Padrón claimed having witnessed.
The declassified document contained many more witness reports gathered from the same area, but none of them matched Dr. Padrón's story about a sphere with two humanoids figures in it; every other description -most of them provided by locals- mentions the same enormous disc of light in the west night sky. A car mechanic and his wife described it as "a car's headlight thrice as large as the full moon". A school teacher mentioned having seen it from his house's window through a pair of binoculars when it began to fade, noticing its "fog-like appearance, and the night stars could be seen through", and mentioning what looked like a couple of bluish beams inside. A farmer explained in his statement that it looked like "a fire spot", he too mentioned seeing "two blue lines" in it. Not even the sick woman Padrón had come to provide medical attention to nor her relatives confirmed the Dr.'s description of the phenomenon, matching instead everyone else's.
That didn't stop the journalists working for UFO/paranormal-themed magazines or even some journalists working for reputable newspapers from disregarding all these credible witnesses and instead focusing on the most outlandish one; Dr. Padrón. In summer of 1994, several of these Spanish magazines like Enigmas, Año Cero or Más Allá rushed to publish a drawing depicting Padrón's description of the 'humanoid figures dressed in red' in their articles, not only making absolutely no mention of any of the other witnesses but also claimed that the propulsion system of the alleged 'alien spacecraft' had scorched a nearby onion field -the area is full of that type of crops- and that posterior chemical analysis of the scorched terrain had yielded wildly unusual results. We'll come back to this point later.
Sketch depicting Padrón's (unique, literally) description of the event. Yes, someone from the Army - more specifically from the Air Force- was tasked with sitting down next to this guy and spending a good deal of time drawing whatever ludicrous thing Padrón felt like coming up with.
Something worth mentioning; these publications made heavy emphasis on Padrón's education -he was a GP, after all. As in, as extraordinary as his claims were, these were being made by a man of a high level of education, intelligent and therefore (in the eyes of many) automatically worth of credibility. In fact, the patient's relative traveling in the taxi's backseat -a farmhand that had never received formal schooling and was illiterate- said in his witness report that one of the reasons why he did not question Padrón's statement was precisely the abysmal difference in education between him and the doctor, and kind of assumed that if an educated man like Padrón said that such thing had indeed happened, then it must have been true.
A local newspaper interviewed Dr. Padrón shortly after the documents were declassified. And by then, eighteen years after that night, Padrón added some more details to his already bizarre account, providing these journalists with something that wouldn't have been out of place in an episode of The X-Files (which back in 1994 had begun to be broadcasted in Spain, with significant success). Back in 1976 Padrón had already added in his statement that he did not feel fear but 'a strange sense of wellbeing and excitement' in his encounter with the alleged spacecraft; now he was also saying that these beings -which never communicated with him in any way, per his account- had not only the ability to erase anyone's memories off their brains, but they also can "make you see whatever they want you to do for months or years, replacing an 'energy' [his word] in your brain". If these statements weren't absurd enough, Dr. Padrón warned the journalists about not taking him seriously, because in the last three years he "had observed that anyone who had been skeptical of my statements and hurt my credibility in public has passed away within six or seven months, all of them to cancer, eight people in total so far".
Although the documents that included the description of his ludicrous story hadn't been declassified until 1994, ever since 1976 many journalists had managed to get in touch with Padrón and hear his story -the doctor himself wasn't exactly quiet about it either -and some of these are allegedly the cancer victims Padrón would've been referring to. There's no way to check the veracity of that, since the only source of that statement was Padrón himself.
Between 1976 and 1994 the doctor's story circulated in a somewhat obscure manner, being referred to in some UFO articles here and there -and adding their own artistic depictions of his outlandish story. Padrón was already telling any 'paranormal' journalist willing to listen about the scorched onion field. Turned out, back in June of 1976 a farmer in the municipality of Guía did indeed notice an area in one of his onion crops that seemed to have been burned, but that man had specified that that hadn't happened until the morning of June 24th, a good day and half after Padrón's alleged 'alien encounter'. What is more, although the cause of these burns couldn't be ascertained, they were indistinguishable from fire damage. To this day it's thought that these burnt onion plants were nothing but the result of vandalism or a prank. Some UFO skepticism authors have raised the possibility of the doctor himself being responsible.
Picture of one of the many onion fields in Guía and Gáldar. To this day, Dr. Padrón's 'scorched onion field' remains a running joke among the older residents in these municipalities.
At the time Padrón even managed, out of sheer insistence, to get that soil tested. Surprisingly to no one, all chemical, physical and radiological analyses performed yielded no unusual results. The sampling and testing was conducted by Hungarian-Spanish physician Alejandro Carlos de Gyorko-Gyorkos, who at the time was curious about paranormal phenomena and had interviewed Padrón many times in 1976. According to a journalist for Naukas (A Spanish online science and technology magazine that specializes in skepticism and debunking of pseudoscience), in 1992 Gyorko-Gyorkos described Padrón as a man that "interprets everything he comes up with as real". By 1994 Padrón was also claiming that the Spanish Air Force had threatened him with legal action to silence him, and that Gyorko-Gyorkos was a man whose "ethics he'd rather not talk about". Padrón had never mentioned these alleged legal threats at any point before June of that year, precisely once the documents were declassified, a coincidence that hadn't gone unnoticed.
Some skepticism authors have elucubrated about the possible inspiration for Padrón's 'tall men in dressed in red spacesuits'. Not exactly very original.
Explanation (1994 and 2001)
The 1976 document concludes that the origen of the 22/06/976 UFO -although in reality the Spanish Air force used then the acronym FANI (Fenómeno Aéreo No Identificado', 'Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon') when referring to it- was unknown. In 1994 these paranormal journalists presented such conclusion as an automatic evidence of aliens, or at least UFOs in the sense popular culture depicts then. In reality, as anyone can notice upon checking the report, 'unknown' means precisely that; unknown. At no point in the report the authors bring up rebuttals for any possible logical or rational explanation, but rather they conclude that back in 1976 there was just not enough evidence to provide an accurate explanation of its origin.
The same report contains the transcription of precisely Dr. Gyorko-Gyorkos's opinion about Dr. Padrón's reasoning (safe to assume, by then had already made up his mind about the man) in a military court. In the transcription, and in what looks like a generous maneuver to dismiss Padrón's claims without going as far to humiliate him, Gyorko-Gyorkos explains a military judge that that night Dr. Padrón, possibly overworked and sleep-deprived, misremembered what had seen and his fatigued psyche had create a mixed recollection with what he had seen and what had crossed his mind. As for the taxi driver, this man was probably highly impressionable -apparently the Dr. had behaved in a very excited manner during the phenomenon- and thus in a way Padrón had 'passed' his delusional belief onto him. The military court ruled that "Padrón's credibility could not, for the time being, be corroborated".
Of course, at this point of this writeup a question still lingers; what was whatever thing close to a million and half people saw in the night sky back on June 22nd, 1976? First, let's go over the world's state of affairs at the time, because this is one of these 'mysteries' in which history had been hinting at the answer almost from the beginning;
In 1976 the world was still amidst of a low-key conflict between two superpowers with lots of political tensions; the United States (plus NATO) versus the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (plus other members of the Warsaw Pact). AKA, Cold War. As part of the Western Bloc, at the time Spain had been a long-time ally of NATO. However, the country wouldn't become a NATO member itself until 1982 -which was so controversial within Spain that a referendum would be held in 1986 questioning Spanish people's desire to remain in the military alliance.
As such, while Spain was a Western ally, back in 1976 it was not really 'in the game' yet, especially when taking into account that, unlike in other countries, NATO membership wasn't that welcome. Please notice the year the Spanish army declassified the documents; 1994. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 (and with it , the fall of the Iron Curtain) helped lower the stakes this international poker game, and as such the world would learn about all sorts of crazy things that had been going on at both sides of the conflict in absolute secrecy.
Earlier in this writeup there is a data-based description of the phenomenon's behavior, but most importantly, it's ballistic trajectory. Adding to that, countless witnesses had described seeing either one or a couple of lights 'taking off like a rocket'. Let's remember; it had been ascertained that it originated at about 700 kilometers west and had moved further west in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean while reaching an altitude of 90 kilometers -which is about the lower thermosphere. This had already raised the first suspicions among the members of the Spanish intelligence services, suspicions that gained weight in 1994 -and that likely led to the declassification of the report- when much clearer and straightforward communication between the United States' government and Spain's allowed for a more open investigation of the sort of testing the Americans were engaging in. In 2001 an article of research journalism, coauthored by science journalists Ricardo Campo and Vicente-Juan Ballester Olmos finally identified what was behind the 1976 aerial phenomenon.
Campo and Ballester had already noticed its ballistic trajectory calculated in 1976. In 1999, suspecting already who (country) was the 'culprit', they accessed Jonathan McDowell's database of ballistic missile launches. Previous to that Campo and Ballester had failed to find any useful information in NASA's archives, as none of the launches in their registry matched the evidence, and prior to that -right after the 1994 declassification, in fact- they had traveled to Moscow looking for the possible explanation there. Russian military authorities had adamantly denied their involvement in the phenomena, which directed the investigators towards other leads (while at the same time not disregarding the possibility of Russia being behind it after all.
Finally, Campo and Ballester bumped into these two rows of the database. First column indicates the launch identification number. Second and third, the date (in the Julian and Gregorian calendars. Fourth is GMT time (which, adjusting for a compilation error, coincides with Canary Islands' GMT+1 local time when the phenomenon took place). The fifth column tells the type of missile, the sixth on identifies the launch platform and finally the seventh one indicates who was responsible for the launch.
Simply put, the information in these rows means; on June 22nd, 1976, two Poseidon C3 thermonuclear missiles were launched from US Navy's submarine USS Von Steuben), at 20:16 and 20:17 GTM.
The database does not include location (that information remains classified) but during their research Campo and Ballester learned from McDowell himself that the US Navy's eastern test range covers from Cape Canaveral (Florida, US) all the way Ascension Island. The location of the 1976's phenomenon falls well within such range.
From here, Campos and Ballester offered an explanation of its optics. The Poseidon C3 missile carries several 40-kiloton nuclear warheads (normally ten) -for comparison, Little Boy was a single 15-kiloton bomb. Once the two 400-kiloton missiles detonated in the thermosphere, the quick expansion of extremely hot atmospheric gases reflected the sunlight back to Earth, even though by then in Canary Islands the sun was already well below the horizon and the sky was pitch black; at 90 kilometers of altitude, these expanding gases were still in direct path of the sunlight. This reflection is what made the phenomenon appear so bright and big in spite of the 700+ kilometers of distance between witnesses and its source.
Campo and Ballester's article provided also an explanation for other similar events -albeit not that espectacular as the one pertaining this writeup- that had taken place in the islands between 1973 and 1979. All except one were found to be the result of other American thermonuclear tests, with the exception of this one seen south of the archipelago in 1979 -and finally acknowledged by Russia in 2017, although they did not explain what exactly it was.
Conclusion
TL;DR: It was a couple of thermonuclear missiles launched in secrecy by the US Navy in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. The 'aliens' witness was, to put it mildy, an individual with an extreme tendency to make ludicrous statements and a marked need to be the centre of attention.
Campo and Ballester's work is available online for free, and anyone who speak Spanish can check the story of their investigation for themselves.
This is not to say that the whole 'aliens' narrative died down. To this day, the story of the 1976 phenomenon continues to be shared sometimes in media as 'proof' of UFO/aliens, even though it's literally neither -coincidentally, failing to mention the vast amount of evidence pointing at a thermonuclear test. In June of 2016 several newspapers published articles remembering the phenomenon in its 40th anniversary, and pretty much all of them reminded the reader right from the headline that the 'mystery' had long been solved.
Links and Sources
"Two red giants riding a missile" - Excellent article in the aforementioned online magazine Naukas written by Ricardo Campo himself on the phenomenon (Spanish)
The Spanish Army's declassified document on the event. It can be downloaded for free as a 107-pages long PDF
2016 Article (Spanish)
2023.06.07 21:36 RunAwayWojo Unfortunately, it looks pretty dry in there
 | submitted by RunAwayWojo to Earwolf [link] [comments] |
2023.06.07 19:03 Bubblegummy__03 Selling my Marchesa Notte dress ($895) for $295 💐💐💐💐 Absolutely gorgeous dress
 | Only worn once for photo, with tags. I bought this gorgeous from Saks Fifth Avenue for $895, $910 with tax. Absolutely gorgeous!! I got so many compliments when I had her on!! Dm me or comment below if interested!! I’m moving out so decided to sell it❤️❤️❤️ submitted by Bubblegummy__03 to weddingdress [link] [comments] |
2023.06.07 18:41 bulldogbutt777 Cats fifth avenue
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2023.06.07 15:00 hnqn1611 TOP 10 Things to do in MEXICO CITY - [2023 Travel Guide]
![TOP 10 Things to do in MEXICO CITY - [2023 Travel Guide]](https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/g6MT2iouquB_R575zTQAqEy4HvfNSXLzQyDs1FYPbjY.jpg "TOP 10 Things to do in MEXICO CITY - [2023 Travel Guide]") | https://preview.redd.it/f8i15pt9fl4b1.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1a7d7279425f6e14ed0e6c1e009994a63dfd5004 submitted by hnqn1611 to TopPersonality [link] [comments] In this post , we'll show you ten best things to do in Mexico City. The suggestions are based on our fun trip to this unique historic metropolis. Sponsored by Beeyond compression packing cubes for travel. The link is in the description. Don't forget to like this post , subscribe to our channel, and enable notifications. And share your own Mexico City experience or ask a question in the comments below. And stick around until the end of this post because we have a bonus for you. Here are our top 10 picks. Top 10 things to do in Mexico City ⭐ Sponsored by BEEYOND packing cubes, a revolutionary new way to pack your luggage 🧳 🎒 👉 https://amzn.to/43uwwz0 👈 (on Amazon) 🔥 📚 Mexico City PDF Guide 👉 https://amzn.to/3WVsSvh🔥 NUMBER 10: Plaza del Zócalo Officially called Plaza de la Constitución and nicknamed Zócalo, Mexico City’s main square has been a meeting place for Mexicans since the Aztec times. People gather there for ceremonies, royal proclamations, military parades, and even national protests. The site was the main ceremonial center in the pre-Columbian Mexico City called Tenochtitlan. This large and well-developed city-state was built on the island of Lake Texcoco together with another city - Tlatelolco. According to Aztec mythology, it was considered the center of the universe. The nickname Zócalo means "pedestal" or "plinth." A monument to the Mexican independence was planned to be built here but only the base to support the statue called Zócalo was built. The plinth is no longer there, but the name has lived on. You won’t, however, be able to miss a giant Mexican flag placed in the center of the square. Zócalo is home to several important buildings, including the National Palace, the seat of the Mexican government, and the largest Cathedral in Latin America – Mexico City Metropolitan Cathedral, built in segments from 1573 to 1813 around the original church built atop the former Aztec Templo Mayor. While you're in the area, watch Aztec dancers next to the Cathedral that uses inspiration from ancient rituals and traditional dance just outside the cathedral. NUMBER 9: Templo Mayor Located right next to Zócalo, Templo Mayor or Greater Temple is a vast complex of ruins of religious and civic buildings from the Aztec times. Templo Mayor was the main Temple of the rulers of the Aztec Empire – the Mexica people in their capital city of Tenochtitlan, or what is today known as Mexico City. According to Aztec mythology, the Aztec God of Sun and War Huitzilopochtli ordered his people to establish a new capital in a place where an eagle sits on a cactus, devouring a snake. The seal of the Mexican government represents this legend from Aztec mythology. That legendary location turned out to be a place covered by wetlands. The Temple was built on an island in the 14th century and was destroyed after the Spanish Conquests in the 16th century. The ruins of the temple's exact location was later forgotten, and the excavations was carried out at the end of the 19th century and some parts even in the late 20th century. Visit Templo Mayor Museum, a part of UNESCO World Heritage that showcases archaeological finds and exhibits related to the Aztec civilization. Or if you don’t have time, see the temple from the street above. Don’t skip a disturbing Skull Rack displaying hundreds of stone skulls representing the sacrificial victims to honor the gods and the power of the empire. NUMBER 8: Xochimilco Xochimilco was the most important city of the Xochimilca people, who first settled in around 900 BC up until it was conquered by the Mexica of Tenochtitlan in the 15th century. Xochimilco is best known for a vast system of around 170 kilometers or 110 mi. of canals, famous for its colorful gondola-like boats called trajineras. Canals of Xochimilco are one of the last traces of a vast water transport system built by the Aztecs. These canals were a part of a massive lake and canal system that connected most of the settlements in the Valley of Mexico. Both canals and the chinampa system of Xochimilco are part of the UNESCO World Heritage Sites. The name Xochimilco means "flower field” and describes flowers and other crops grown here. The vegetables, fruits, and flowers were shipped to Tenochtitlan via the canal. NUMBER 7: Street Food Mexico City's culinary scene offers a wide variety of food options, from affordable street food or antojitos (street snacks or appetizers) to gourmet international and local restaurants. Experience Mexican life through a variety of street food. Try some of the following options: tacos, quesadillas, tamales, chicharrón, machetes, delicious churros, or elotes - a, Mexican street corn topped with mayonnaise, chili powder and others. And if you are up to a challenge, even chapulines or grasshoppers. Don’t skip several important food and artisan markets spread throughout Mexico City, like Mercado de Coyoacán, etc. NUMBER 6: Torre Latinoamericana Torre Latinoamericana or Latin American Tower, completed in 1956, is a skyscraper in the historic city center of Mexico City. This 166 m or 545 ft high building is one of the city's important architectural attractions was the tallest structure in Mexico until it was surpassed by Torre Ejecutiva Pemex. It is the world's first major skyscraper successfully built on a highly active seismic zone. Torre Latinoamericana survived the 8.1 magnitude earthquake in Mexico City in 1985. Other buildings in downtown were severely damaged. The tower's observation area Mirador Torre Latino offers some of the best panoramic views of Mexico City. Don’t forget to explore Madero Street right below Torre Latinoamericana, a popular and crowded pedestrian area featuring bars, shops, and other attractions. Check our Mexico City 4K walking tour with closed captions to get the full experience. The link is in the description https://amzn.to/3WVsSvh NUMBER 5: Coyoacán Coyoacán is a bohemian neighborhood located south of the city center. Covered with cobblestone streets and known for its colonial architecture, the name actually derives from the Aztec language, meaning "place of coyotes." The area was used as a headquarters during the Spanish conquest of the Aztec Empire. Coyoacán was the first capital of New Spain. The areas offers many activities and attractions, such as: La Casa Azul, a historic house and an art museum where Mexican artist Frida Kahlo was born and later lived with her husband, Diego Rivera. Mercado de Coyoacán: a traditional market famous for its colors and folklore, selling everything from clothing, plants to various food options and more. Plaza Hidalgo and Jardín Centenario full of colonial landmarks, bars, restaurants, Fuente de los Coyotes, Parroquia San Juan Bautista, beautiful Tranvía Coyoacán and other attractions. Or Plaza de la Conchita with the Chapel of the Immaculate Conception Church, the oldest church in Mexico. There are many other exciting neighborhoods and streets worth exploring, like Barrio China, Zona Rosa, etc. Check our travel guide for more suggestions. By the way, our mobile-friendly travel guide covers the top 20 things to do in Mexico City and things to know before you visit, including opening hours, links to buy tickets, itinerary suggestions, maps, and other information. By purchasing our travel guide, you are also helping us sustain this channel, so a big thank you for that! NUMBER 4: Bosque de Chapultepec The Chapultepec Forest is one of the oldest urban parks in the world and one of the largest city parks in the Western Hemisphere. Chapultepec functions as the lungs providing oxygen to the Mexico Valley. In the pre-Columbian era, the forest was also a popular retreat for Aztec rulers. The most popular section of Chapultepec is home to popular attractions and activities, including the Museum of Anthropology, botanic garden, a zoo, and an artificial lake. Here, you can rent a boat and enjoy the escape from the busy city streets. There are two other lakes in the second section of the park. Don't skip Chapultepec Castle or The National Museum of History, built in the colonial period. The castle official residence of Mexican heads of state until 1940. It is located at the top of Chapultepec Hill, with amazing views towards Paseo de la Reforma and the rest of the city. Chapultepec served as an important water management system in the pre-Columbian era, featuring an Aztec-built ancient aqueduct. Did you know that the name Chapultepec derives from the Aztec language and translates as Hill of the Grasshopper. Check our travel guide for more beautiful parks suggestions, like an impressive Alameda Central right next to the Palace of the Fine Arts. NUMBER 3: Museum of Anthropology National Museum of Anthropology is the most visited museum in Mexico, offering the world's most extensive collection of ancient Mexican art, important archaeological and anthropological objects from Mexico's pre-Columbian heritage, like the Stone of the Sun (or the Aztec calendar stone) created in the 16th century. You can walk around the 23 permanent exhibit halls representing the colors and materials related to Teotihuacan, Olmeca, and Maya cultures. Don’t skip the stunning outdoor part of the museum. The building was designed by the architect Pedro Ramirez Vazquez, who also designed other important buildings in Mexico City, like Basilica de Guadalupe or Estadio Azteca. There are many other fascinating museums in Mexico City. Don't skip Voladores De Papantla or Flying Men – an ancient Mesoamerican ritual to ask God to end a severe drought in Tamayo Park close to the museum. This video is sponsored by Beeyond, helping you save space when you travel and organize your suitcase. A revolutionary new way to organize your luggage consists of a set of small and large packing cubes. Once you're done packing, just close both zippers, compress the air out of your packing cubes like this, and voila, your clothes are compressed, and your luggage is organized. We use Beeyond packing cubes on our travels, and they are even designed to fit your carry-on. Visit Beeyond's Amazon page to get your own compression packing cube set. The link is in the description https://amzn.to/3WVsSvh NUMBER 2: Basilica of Our Lady of Guadalupe Basílica de Nuestra Señora de Guadalupe is a Roman Catholic church, basilica, and National shrine of Mexico and one of the most important pilgrimage sites of Catholicism. The present church was constructed on an earlier 16th-century church finished in 1709 due to its dangerous sinking foundation, the Old Basilica. The new basilica houses the cloak containing the images of Our Lady of Guadalupe, one of the most important symbols of Mexican faith, based on a series of Marian apparitions in 1531. The basilica is visited by millions of people every year, making it the most visited Catholic shrine in the world. Don't skip the impressive and stunningly landscaped Sagrado Recinto del Tepeyac Garden and explore other impressive sites. NUMBER 1: Teotihuacán Located about an hour drive from Mexico City, Teotihuacan is a must-see. This ancient Mesoamerican city was probably established around 100 BC, long before the arrival of the Aztecs and its origins are still unknown. Teotihuacan began as a religious center in the Mexican Highlands around the first century AD. It was supposed to be the largest city in the pre-Columbian Americas, with an estimated population of at least 125,000. In the 8th century AD, the city was abandoned, probably because of the extreme weather events in the centuries before. Walk along the Avenue of the Dead and admire the Temple of Quetzalcoatl, the Pyramid of the Sun and the Pyramid of the Moon, apartment compounds, and vibrant murals. Secret tunnels were discovered under the pyramids of the Moon and Temple of the Feathered Serpent. Teotihuacan was a prosperous kingdom and traded with obsidian, used for tools, weapons, and other. Close to the pyramids, you can even experience how people turn volcanic stone into a piece of art, observe the sun, how to use the entire cactus and turn it into a sewing kit, or how they ingeniously colored the sewing thread and used interior parts of the cactus as paper. And here is the bonus that we promised: Don’t leave Mexico without experiencing Mariachi, a genre of regional Mexican music and a symbol of Mexican national identity. Mariachi music as we know it today originated in Jalisco in the 19th century. You can listen to mariachi in various places around Mexico City, like Plaza Garibaldi. Whether you want to follow the footsteps of the Aztecs, experience centuries-old traditions during Día de los Muertos, admire the place where Frida Kahlo lived, immerse yourself in delicious street food, or discover artisan and other markets, there is plenty to do in Mexico City. |
2023.06.07 05:17 iSelixed Disputing a transaction with Bank of America
Like title says I want to not what happens and what the process looks like when disputing a charge with Bank of America. I recently ordered something from Saks Fifth Avenue ($487) the order never arrived and Ive been trying to contact them for weeks all they was tell me to wait its been almost 3 weeks now and after all that they just sent me a bot email saying they cant do anything about it. First time ever disputing a charge so Im just wondering what the proccess is like
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